Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33774.

Nightowlace

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Quote from: adamstgBit on May 03, 2013, 10:31:58 AM

throughout this drop both support and resistance have been extreme. volume is very high. the volatility has brought in a lot of day traders looking to capitalize on the drop. I played the game myself, sold high bought lower! The risk to reward for doing this is going lower and lower with very drop, at one point the music will stop and there will be far more people than chairs.

I am not going to lie, I took advantage of this. I set a buy at $80 before I went to sleep last night woke up and it was executed. Set a sell at $98 had a late breakfast and to my surprise it had also executed. I haven't made a ton of money like some people on this site but I am proud of the fact that I am $44 ahead of my initial deposit into my Mtgox along with 22BTC. So I would say 22BTC for a price of -$2 each is pretty solid.

Now I am about to go pop some popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show.

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: adamstgBit on May 03, 2013, 10:31:58 AM

throughout this drop both support and resistance have been extreme. volume is very high. the volatility has brought in a lot of day traders looking to capitalize on the drop. I played the game myself, sold high bought lower! The risk to reward for doing this is going lower and lower with very drop, at one point the music will stop and there will be far more people than chairs.

Now if you could only literally sit on a bitcoin then okay. Cheesy

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

throughout this drop both support and resistance have been extreme. volume is very high. the volatility has brought in a lot of day traders looking to capitalize on the drop. I played the game myself, sold high bought lower! The risk to reward for doing this is going lower and lower with very drop, at one point the music will stop and there will be far more people than chairs.

Odalv

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What is next $100 or $70

smoothie

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LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper

Quote from: SlipperySlope on May 03, 2013, 09:34:43 AM

The next several hours will reveal whether the price movement stays in the channel.

Wow some of you TA's are sloppy. At least draw a line connecting TWO POINTS lol... Tongue

phoenix1

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Quote from: barbs on May 03, 2013, 10:04:55 AM

Quote from: seleme on May 03, 2013, 09:52:16 AM

another chance for easy money missed, damn you bitcoins Grin

haha was just thinking this

just missed it. was looking at 82$ loaded with FIAT and just got back from a meeting and here we are at 100 . DAMN U BITCOINS! Lets buy in at the top so we can offer some water for that pump! maybe not.

lol
Beat this ... I bought around the 83 level, sat with it for over an hour and it was going nowhere on low volume so I scratched it ... about ... oooh ... a minute at most before it went through the roof ... hahaha
Damn you Bitcoin !

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote

For bottom though it seems that 79 is it for today.

Supposing that this pause at $96 turns downward within a couple of hours, there could be enough high-volume hours remaining today so that a wall-busting panic-selling spike down to $70 might just happen, e.g. in the blind due to goxlag. Otherwise, I think your assessment is likely.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: SAQ on May 03, 2013, 10:12:34 AM

There seems to be a lot of support at 97, I can't see it breaking.

For bottom though it seems that 79 is it for today.

In trader talk, you meant resistance at 97, right?

SAQ

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There seems to be a lot of support at 97, I can't see it breaking.

For bottom though it seems that 79 is it for today.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote

just missed it

The previous pause was six hours long and the one before that was 12 hours long. I recommend patience - or maybe limit buy orders.

barbs

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Quote from: seleme on May 03, 2013, 09:52:16 AM

another chance for easy money missed, damn you bitcoins Grin

haha was just thinking this

just missed it. was looking at 82$ loaded with FIAT and just got back from a meeting and here we are at 100 . DAMN U BITCOINS! Lets buy in at the top so we can offer some water for that pump! maybe not.

Richy_T

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KillaMarci

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Bitcoin Mininode...and proud!

Quote from: deathcode on May 03, 2013, 09:49:06 AM

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

That's true. If you look at my example and the price only goes to $78 then I'm screwed because I only bought 0.3. This strategy is mostly just to try to predict the bottom and try to catch as much as you can even if your bottom is off by +5%. Catching the exact bottom and going all in is very difficult for me. With this strategy I can pick a bottom +/-5% and place my bets accordingly.

SlipperySlope

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Stephen Reed

Quote from: KillaMarci on May 03, 2013, 09:40:50 AM

Quote from: paulie_w on May 03, 2013, 09:36:35 AM

Quote from: DougTanner on May 03, 2013, 09:23:12 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on May 03, 2013, 09:17:39 AM

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74

etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

I have a most likely price target in mind beforehand. For example, a couple of days ago I obtained a price target for this capitulation by way of comparison with the first and greatest capitulation of bubble 1. That one had a 55% drop from the top. This one started at $145 and my price target was therefore $65. I created pre-positioned buy limit orders at Mt. Gox for $95, $87, $80, $76, and $65. Based upon the relentless selling pressure today, I split the lowest bid and created a new bid at $60. Regarding order size, I use a rough gaussian distribution, i.e. bell curve, that heavily weights the orders in the center of the spread. In a sort of monte carlo analysis, I expect the majority of my orders to get filled, but not necessarily the lowest one(s).

My buy points illustrated above are in whole numbers, the actual orders are positioned according to the nearby bid walls, i.e. my orders are relatively small and I want them filled before the 1000+ BTC orders commonly placed at whole numbers as walls.

These execution tactics are new to me. I vowed during the last bitcoin bubble to learn - and to profit accordingly.

seleme

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Duelbits.com

another chance for easy money missed, damn you bitcoins Grin

Richy_T

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Quote from: deathcode on May 03, 2013, 09:49:06 AM

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

I don't think anyone is denying it's a risk management strategy. It's different from the blackjack example though.

ManBearPig

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"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on May 03, 2013, 09:17:39 AM

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

Yep, same here.

Richy_T

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Got a feeling we might see another (slow) bounce above 100. Not sure where it will land though.

deathcode

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Quote from: KillaMarci on May 03, 2013, 09:40:50 AM

Quote from: paulie_w on May 03, 2013, 09:36:35 AM

Quote from: DougTanner on May 03, 2013, 09:23:12 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on May 03, 2013, 09:17:39 AM

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

I usually pick a spot where I want to begin, and double the amount I'm going to buy the lower it gets.

So for example
0.1BTC @ $80
0.2BTC @ $78
0.4BTC @ $76
0.8BTC @ $74

etc.

I'm sure theres different strategies for this but I find this one the most logical sounding.

I'm curious about these strategies.. people use the same strategies when they play blackjack. They play the minimum, they lost, then they play twice the minimum and so on.
What they don't realize is that they waste a valuable and most often unaccounted factor TIME!

You can easily buy or sell ALL your coins at a single price, if you re-buy or re-sell at a better price then BAM!!! you made a shit ton of money compared to the averaging strategy you use...
It's kinda like the "diversification" approach... when all the so called financial advisors recommend to diversify...
that's code for "I have no clue what will go up or down, so to cover my ass, I'll recommend you to bed on all the different stocks so in the end I make money off commissions and you break even"

Anyways... I'm not criticizing your strategy, just pointing out what I think is the common denominator in many other situations.

DougTanner

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Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Quote from: paulie_w on May 03, 2013, 09:36:35 AM

Quote from: DougTanner on May 03, 2013, 09:23:12 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on May 03, 2013, 09:17:39 AM

me and my fiat are taking a break this weekend. I think maybe it's not dissapearing into coins but it's just off the order book. I have no idea what to bid at the moment.

I just put lots of bids from $75 down to $10. Whatever the bottom is I'll catch a good chunk of it.

what is the best strategy for doing this?

There probably isn't one, I just picked the "lowest it could ever go" as my bottom then put some exponentially equidistant bids in from $10.00 -> $11.00 -> $12.10 -> ... -> $67.27 -> $74.11, with constant dollar amounts.

$10 is probably too low, I might adjust it to $15 or $30. Dunno.

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