Also, the casino nature of the "crypto" market, leads to great volitility and the association of Bitcoin as a "tech product" has it firmly in step with the Nasdaq chart at times.
Filed under, “Teach people that
Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.” It is a very large file.
Its no secret that bitcoin has been tracking the stock market latelty and becoming more and more intertwined with political and macroeconomic factors,So it may actually be beneficial to treat it as a "stock" as this will allow for better models and price predictions.
It is so much not-a-secret that there is even a word for it: “Coupling”. Please try reading the link before you offer counterarguments issues I raised, which are irrelevant to coupling. In addition to what I said at that link, where I did not think I needed to explain why coupling hurts us:
Most Bitcoiners seem to agree that being coupled to the stock market is a bad thing. Bitcoin is supposed to be “digital gold”—we should be coupled to the PMs, not stocks! Bitcoin is supposed to be a hedge against inflation—but upon news of high USD inflation, idiots who treat BTC as a “stock” are fleeing Bitcoin to buy inflationary central bank altcoins. I would even go so far to say that in the long term, coupling to stocks is a threat to Bitcoin’s economic viability. Now, we have already been coupled to stocks for years; and it is killing us. If we now forever lose 200 WMA as a Schelling point for a Bitcoin Bottom (as it seems we may), coupling to the stock market will be one major factor, in my opinion.
Filed under, “
Teach people that
Bitcoin is not a stock—Bitcoin is nothing like a stock.” It is a very large file.
I doubt that there is any need to introduce a new term in regards to arguments about bitcoin being correlated to stocks or to any other assets.
Yeah, people make those claims about correlation all of the time, but they are not correct especially if we zoom out we can see that bitcoin is not correlated to any other assets.. however, in the short term there may well be correlation.. and also during liquidity events there also may be correlation.. because during liquidation events, even like the pretty damned BIG one of March 2020, almost every asset class crashed.. and during such crash, they were trading against the dollar.. so in the short term, the dollar was the place to flee.. but even that flee to the dollar and outrageously crazy responses of dollar printers to treat the matter as an excuse to print "infinite amounts of cash", that still might not have been the correct decision because a couple years down the road, the dollar ends up being quite devalued in comparison to hard assets, such as bitcoin..
.. so the bounce in bitcoin prices from march 2020 could be considered in conservative ways as 6x or 7x and to start from a base of $10k-ish... but if we measure from the bottom of that liquidation event that went down to $3,850, the bounce ended up being close to 18x.. The overwhelming majority of assets, whether we are referring to various kinds of stocks (nasdaq blah blah blah), property, commodities, PMs such as gold did not experience even close to as much of a bounce as bitcoin... so it should be pretty obvious that claiming correlation does not end up being so much a strong case - except if such claims are made in regards to some of the short-term price moves... and so even now, bitcoin is experiencing some extreme correcting .. and there may well be some very passionate desires to drive it down as far as possible and as low as possible.. but also taking advantage of some very loosey goosey players that have been pretty sloppy with how they had been connecting some of their scammy interest bearing products to bitcoin - attract folks to their Ponsi scheme like scams with made up yield that they would not be able to sustain if the BTC price ends up correcting beyond expectations - which then fuels and motivates ongoing pushes to drive BTC's price lower in order to flesh out more and more and more of these players who had been collateralizing their otherwise unsustainable products with BTC.
So right now whether we are still experiencing outrageous 24/7 market pressures to continue to hunt for various weak spots in which to suss out additional smoke and mirror products, we sometimes might end up loosing our confidence in bitcoin itself as an asset or even wondering how far it will be possible to continue to push the BTC price down..
It seems to me that we are convoluting words, if we are mixing up personal practices to figure which assets that they should invest into, and normies are weighing their investment allocations, so in that regard, they are comparing and contrasting some ideas of bitcoin's current price and expected value - like they would consider a stock - but of course, the fundamentals of bitcoin remain different, and normies won't always know how to value bitcoin - but it still does not hurt if they are attempting to figure out bitcoin's performance in comparison or even coupling in their mind with other kinds of investments that they may well have whether various kinds of stocks, or property or other places that they might believe plausible to put some of their money - especially during times like this. .and trying to figure out if HODLing through the matter might be the right course - and whether the concept of HODL may or may not apply as much to other kinds of assets - even when bitcoin may well be one of the most liquid assets that they own.. so there may well be temptations to do something with what you have, which may well end up being the wrong move because even if we are in the midst of all kinds of downity price pressures, we can never really have certainty regarding how far down it will go and/or how long it will last... even though sometimes in times like this when we see so many defective products that were out there claiming to have "yielding" products, downward pressures on BTC can well end up fleshing out the ones that were not as backed up as they claimed to be.. or they were too tied to BTC prices going up.
And, at some point when the BTC price resumes to going UPpity, there may well end up being a whole hell of a lot of fuel from those who had been betting and pushing for more and more and more downity.. so then when the BTC price resumes up, we find out that they were using BTC that they did not have to push the BTC price down, so then if we end up getting large BTC price increases, those ones end up getting reckt, too.
and all my rambling started out by my attempting to clarify that we should not be mixing up coupling and correlation because it likely causes confusion for some of the maybe not quite so coherent reasons that I attempted to outline above.