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Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33922. (Read 26503839 times)

sr. member
Activity: 260
Merit: 250
The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I saw that dump, and I can guarantee I was not the only one

Many had my eyes on the chart at that particular time and i can also guarantee you there was no single dump. Furthermore its not even possible to confirm that its only from one person/account from charts! Simply, the lag caused all sell orders to get executed "in bundle"

I know the dump that Rampion is talking about.   I did not see it when it happened, but on the Clarkmoody charts later.   It was about 7:00 pm pacific time on the 11th, way after the start of the crash.   The really weird thing is that when I was looking at it originally, I saw volume of 65k but I checked it again later on, and it no longer showed 65k, I don't know what happened there.   On the 15 minute scale on Clarkmoody, it shows a volume of 21k and it took the price from $118 to $65.   It was an extremely significant sell, but was in no way the cause of the crash.   It came after Gox was shut down and reopened.   Did it contribute to how far down we went?   Of course, so does every sell, but there was no additional panic caused.   I would even say that the reason for so much slippage was because people had already pulled their bids because of the crash that was already in place.
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
here come the panic sellers
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
copper member
Activity: 1428
Merit: 253
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were?

You can point out whatever in this thread but nobody would read it as the thread is tooooooo fast.

I want additional buttons for users here like the ignore button. Market expert, Manipulator and Clueless idiot. These buttons and the resulting feedback could be hidden outside the speculation subforum.

Ohh people will remember and they will point it out! Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1288
Merit: 1000
Enabling the maximal migration
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were?

You can point out whatever in this thread but nobody would read it as the thread is tooooooo fast.

I want additional buttons for users here like the ignore button. Market expert, Manipulator and Clueless idiot. These buttons and the resulting feedback could be hidden outside the speculation subforum.

that would be awesome.
legendary
Activity: 1862
Merit: 1114
WalletScrutiny.com
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were?

You can point out whatever in this thread but nobody would read it as the thread is tooooooo fast.

I want additional buttons for users here like the ignore button. Market expert, Manipulator and Clueless idiot. These buttons and the resulting feedback could be hidden outside the speculation subforum.
full member
Activity: 128
Merit: 100
Miniwall at 151 removed.
copper member
Activity: 1428
Merit: 253
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
So when the price goes up to $165-170 can I point out how wrong you were?
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
supernode
extremly low volume. Its mean that crash is just around the corner.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
Not much happening. Care for a recap of recent events in non-vertigo-inducing log scale?



This chart is where its at.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Not much happening. Care for a recap of recent events in non-vertigo-inducing log scale?



+1
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
Very low volume ATM

It seems all the buyers are on hold - same thing for the sellers.

But the last few days rallies where on small volumes, crash on high volumes. It's usual like that in BTC, but this seems more pronounced. Last day of rally on big volumes was April, 19th.

It normal to see low volume / volatility, after the market has been so violent for so long.
full member
Activity: 168
Merit: 100
This feels a lot like that day after the weird mini-crash from $147 from the first time up. Huge rally is going on, we break key levels and it starts going insane with huge rally in one day (from $120 to $147 or from $140 to $165) and then people realize "hey this is a bit insane" and sell off down to about where it was the previous day then the price recovers to about half way between the two extremes. Then everybody takes a 1-2 day break and the rally begins again at the very end of the week.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
"Don't go in the trollbox, trollbox, trollbox"
Not much happening. Care for a recap of recent events in non-vertigo-inducing log scale?

legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
Very low volume ATM

It seems all the buyers are on hold - same thing for the sellers.

But the last few days rallies where on small volumes, crash on high volumes. It's usual like that in BTC, but this seems more pronounced. Last day of rally on big volumes was April, 19th.
legendary
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1028
Duelbits.com
some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165

I will say it again: those numbers on the bid and ask size means nothing. Bids and ask walls vanish as soon as the price moves, the book order changes dynamically and means NOTHING. Just check the book order just before the crash, you will see that there was a HUGE buying pressure, but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.

Making a long story short: if you believe in "how many coins are need for X price" you are doing a BIG mistake and you don't understand how trading works.

Wasn't that exactly what I said?

Big price moves don't happen unless big dumps or buys do.
legendary
Activity: 1428
Merit: 1000
The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I saw that dump, and I can guarantee I was not the only one

Many had my eyes on the chart at that particular time and i can also guarantee you there was no single dump. Furthermore its not even possible to confirm that its only from one person/account from charts! Simply, the lag caused all sell orders to get executed "in bundle"
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
On what day? Because that is the chart for the April 10/11 crash.
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.

There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

I saw that dump, and I can guarantee I was not the only one
legendary
Activity: 1148
Merit: 1018
As a funny note, there was a few users who spread the rumor that the one dumping the 69K that triggered the crash was Silk Road (for example, see: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.1804571)

The dump was real, the one who did it's unknown (at least I have seen no proof other than rumors and different posts).

And of course a dump triggered the crash - it always start like that. The BTC is so ridiculously illiquid that a tiny dump of +10.000BTC would trigger a panic selling and a huge crash. Heck, a 200KBTC dump would take us to low single digits! That gives you the idea of how easy would be for a BTC enemy with not-so-deep pockets to destabilize BTC.

And now imagine that an old miner decides to dump +500KBTC coins because it's time to be rich, and he doesn't give a fuck Cheesy
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