The crash/correction was trigger by some gradual downward selling that caused severe lag that in turn caused panic/lag selling. By the time we'd fallen from 266 to 220, there was like 40 minutes of lag and two or so hours had passed since the downward pressure began. While watching live I saw thousands upon thousands of sell orders go through. It wasn't a single 69k order from above 200 that sent us down, it would have taken us down instantly, not gradually over three hours as you can see in the chart below.
There is no 69k single order of coins sold on this chart:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zczsg2013-04-10zeg2013-04-11ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33923. (Read 26503839 times)
April 25, 2013, 09:10:44 AM
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
April 25, 2013, 09:03:19 AM
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.
I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.
Sorry, I see the trades in real time, I don't know where to find an historic that goes till April, 10th (but I'm sure it exists - somebody knows where to find it?)
I can guarantee you that I was actively trading and watching the trades at that moment, and the first of the many dumps we had during the crash was a very big 69KBTC sale (I'm sure other fellow readers will confirm this point)
Thanks, I believe you. Wauw, that does explain the crash.
Is it possible that this kind of selling does give the best price?
For example, did he get that order filled?
If yes, he probably got the highest price anyone got considering the amount of coins he had to sell?
April 25, 2013, 09:00:22 AM
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.
I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.
Sorry, I see the trades in real time, I don't know where to find an historic that goes till April, 10th (but I'm sure it exists - somebody knows where to find it?)
I can guarantee you that I was actively trading and watching the trades at that moment, and the first of the many dumps we had during the crash was a very big 69KBTC sale (I'm sure other fellow readers will confirm this point)
April 25, 2013, 08:59:24 AM
... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?
If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?
I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?
I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. I was trading when that happened, in fact I was very happy because of the unbelievable buying opportunity until Gox fucked up and halted trading to induce "market cooldown". You can check the forums and you will see I was the first one to post about this "market cooldown"
I had to wake up at 4AM to be ready when Gox reopened, just to see how my big buy order at 35€ was not fulfilled for just a couple of euros (bottom in € was 37€). That really pissed me off, I think I should trade in USD, as it's much easier to spot support and resistance points.
Doubtful, if you have followed this market for long, you will know that at certain price points the buying/selling volume will spike up, probably bots triggered by price movement, the same thing may happened during the crash.
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
April 25, 2013, 08:57:27 AM
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/.
I'm sorry but I can't find this on bitcoincharts or clarkmoody. Could you give me more details how to find this transaction? A link would be greatly appreciated.
April 25, 2013, 08:52:55 AM
... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?
If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?
I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?
I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?
Of course there is a verifiable fact. Just check the "trade history" on bitcoincharts or similar, or follow the "time & sales" on http://bitcoin.clarkmoody.com/. I was trading when that happened, in fact I was very happy because of the unbelievable buying opportunity until Gox fucked up and halted trading to induce "market cooldown". You can check the forums and you will see I was the first one to post about this "market cooldown"
I had to wake up at 4AM to be ready when Gox reopened, just to see how my big buy order at 35€ was not fulfilled for just a couple of euros (bottom in € was 37€). That really pissed me off, I think I should trade in USD, as it's much easier to spot support and resistance points.
April 25, 2013, 08:49:13 AM
... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?
If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?
I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?
I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?
You are assuming the seller just wants the best bang for his buck. What if he/she just wants to bring the price down, or shake the market, or inspire panic, or...
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
April 25, 2013, 08:46:00 AM
... but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
How do you know the crash was caused by someone dumping 69k coins at market? Is this a verifiable fact or speculation on your part?
If speculation, why do you believe someone did this?
I don't understand who in their right mind would do such thing?
I mean it's a very poor way to sell a position so large, right? Since you will get serious slippage?
April 25, 2013, 08:36:08 AM
some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165
I will say it again: those numbers on the bid and ask size means nothing. Bids and ask walls vanish as soon as the price moves, the book order changes dynamically and means NOTHING. Just check the book order just before the crash, you will see that there was a HUGE buying pressure, but a single "market order" dump of 69K coins triggered the crash.
Making a long story short: if you believe in "how many coins are need for X price" you are doing a BIG mistake and you don't understand how trading works.
April 25, 2013, 08:36:04 AM
Coins needed for 145 went down from 11k-ish to 9.3k now, the support doesn't look that strong but selling pressure doesn't look strong yet either. That could change pretty fast though.
April 25, 2013, 08:31:00 AM
some dumps are needed for that, it's still about same number of coins needed for 145 and 165
April 25, 2013, 08:25:19 AM
Down to $152, we're slowly sliding down and it seems like we might retest $145 today. If it holds we can expect a new rally upwards.
April 25, 2013, 06:43:44 AM
Good morning!
April 25, 2013, 06:36:10 AM
It is not an oxymoron. It is just plain wrong. Deafing silance is an oxymoron.
If only "silance" was a word...
Or "deafing"
April 25, 2013, 06:29:23 AM
It is not an oxymoron. It is just plain wrong. Deafing silance is an oxymoron.
If only "silance" was a word...
April 25, 2013, 06:29:11 AM
Interesting, how strong today sell off will be.
To me, it seems that we will likely not see $140.00 ever again.
April 25, 2013, 06:22:35 AM
Interesting, how strong today sell off will be.
April 25, 2013, 05:45:33 AM
The $160 wall got eaten a few hours ago, no one cares, price is idling around $157-$158.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
With google and paypal looking to get in...
Very small volume. Very tricky moment to buy in (unless you are in it for the long haul, obviously).
Paypal news were great, but the masses only understand one thing: price is going UP UP UP, price broke ATH, etc. When you have those headlines is when everybody jumps on the train.
We had a very recent bubble burst, so I won't be surprised by a mid-term scenario in which prices slowly decline or just stay stable (which in BTC means 50% to 80% swings, big rallyes and subsequent big crashes, but no more parabolic growth)
Buy. Sell at $169. Wait for re-entry around $155.
OR: Buy. Hold.
Either works for me.
April 25, 2013, 05:43:24 AM
The $160 wall got eaten a few hours ago, no one cares, price is idling around $157-$158.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
Well I care. Just you know, trying to post wall movement updates!
April 25, 2013, 05:39:55 AM
The $160 wall got eaten a few hours ago, no one cares, price is idling around $157-$158.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
I'm seriously wondering who is buying these days.
With google and paypal looking to get in...
Very small volume. Very tricky moment to buy in (unless you are in it for the long haul, obviously).
Paypal news were great, but the masses only understand one thing: price is going UP UP UP, price broke ATH, etc. When you have those headlines is when everybody jumps on the train.
We had a very recent bubble burst, so I won't be surprised by a mid-term scenario in which prices slowly decline or just stay stable (which in BTC means 50% to 80% swings, big rallyes and subsequent big crashes, but no more parabolic growth)
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