Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 34083.

rpietila

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Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: giszmo on April 19, 2013, 10:52:26 AM

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2013, 10:33:28 AM

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up Grin

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.

Oh no please, that's why I said read the analysis first. Adding 8 billion people will likely not change the outcome.

giszmo

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WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: rpietila on April 19, 2013, 10:33:28 AM

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

Oh, ok so you say if Ƀ surpasses the $300,000 mark in 2013 $$, we should sell? Thanks for the heads up Grin

I kind of appreciate your argument but don't agree on the outcome as there will always be a speculative aspect to it. 7.11 billion people? Hey, I have some extra money and will speculate on the next 8 billion also wanting ɃɃ, so the value should be $600,000.

giszmo

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Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: phelix on April 19, 2013, 01:48:23 AM

Quote from: giszmo on April 18, 2013, 08:54:33 PM

[...]

Hmm, not quite right neither …
[/s]
Edit:
for(Bid bid:bids) {
weighted_bid_price+=bid.price_per_BTC * bid.volume_USD;
}
weighted_bid_price/=total_bid_sum;
for(Ask ask:asks) {
weighted_ask_price+=ask.price_per_BTC * ask.volume_BTC;
}
weighted_ask_price/=total_ask_sum;

Would that work?

What if... I would offer 1BTC for 1 Billion Dollars?

You would have to wait 5 years for your order to get filled Grin

Ok, seriously, there has to be some nice measure. If the average bid/ask doesn't work, take the mean bid/ask:

Code:

for(Bid bid:bids) {
  bidSum += bid.volumeUSD;
  if (bidSum >= 0.5 * totalBidSum) {
    meanBidPrice = bid.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}

for(Ask ask:asks) {
  askSum += ask.volumeBTC;
  if (askSum >= 0.5 * totalAskSum) {
    meanAskPrice = ask.pricePerBTC;
    break;
  }
}
meanSpreak = meanAskPrice – meanBidPrice;

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

With your graceful permission, I will repost here my recent findings.

Summary: Bitcoin could act as the world's reserve currency in 2013 and after, as gold did in 1913 and prior. This would give BTC1 = $300,000 in present dollars. Please comment on the analysis, not the outcome.

giszmo

legendary

Activity: 1862

Merit: 1114

WalletScrutiny.com

Quote from: thoughtfan on April 19, 2013, 09:03:53 AM

Quote from: Richy_T on April 19, 2013, 08:35:18 AM

Quote from: giszmo on April 18, 2013, 11:03:04 PM

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been: The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher. It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

Crap. If you solo mine, you can also be lucky and earn more than with a pool. It's just more variance and being more lucky now or less is absolutely the same now and later in the game but later your odds of finding 2 blocks per day might be half of today.

wobber

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Quote from: ShroomsKit on April 19, 2013, 10:13:01 AM

Looks like it's going lower now :/

Don't jump so quick. We will eventually go very low but so far it seems market has some momentul. We'll see the next days.

ShroomsKit

hero member

Activity: 672

Merit: 500

Looks like it's going lower now :/

DougTanner

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

It just keeps bouncing off $112.

stuckprocess

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Cool graph, gives noobs like me a little understanding.

thoughtfan

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 506

Quote from: Richy_T on April 19, 2013, 08:35:18 AM

Quote from: giszmo on April 18, 2013, 11:03:04 PM

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

My reasoning behind pool or p2p mining as opposed to solo had my ASIC turned up months ago and had difficulty been low enough would have been: The odds of mining a block reduces at the same rate as difficulty increases and if this is rapid the cost of belonging to a pool pays for a share of the gains when difficulty is lower and odds are higher. It's a bigger gamble to go solo because if you're unlucky in the first low-difficulty stage you've missed out on the gain you would had by having yours plugged in before the others who drove the difficulty up.

Richy_T

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 2267

1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

As I said, if you believe that chart that was being bandied about, this is the return-to-the-mean which is about correct at 120. I'm withholding my judgement but I suspect we'll see a steady climb until we get some more news of governments doing something crazy. Which could be any time...

Richy_T

legendary

Activity: 2576

Merit: 2267

1RichyTrEwPYjZSeAYxeiFBNnKC9UjC5k

Quote from: giszmo on April 18, 2013, 11:03:04 PM

No. They were found by miners of that pool, not the pool itself. If the pool misbehaves (the blocks contain only transactions with high fees or the blocks contain no transactions at all etc.) these miners will switch within hours.
I wonder though why the first ASIC miners are not solo mining. Damn you can afford to do it with a block found on average within hours.

Some of them seem to have a psychological objection to variance. Or maybe the theory is that as more asics come online, the pools will regain their importance so some loyalty is in order.

San1ty

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: DougTanner on April 19, 2013, 07:50:50 AM

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.

Where can I get those beautiful charts?

Edit: Got it nvm

.

xorglub

full member

Activity: 204

Merit: 100

Yes, small rally from the $110 low, hit twice, not broken. Next stop $120 ?

DougTanner

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Good morning! Crazy night we just had.

Still looks bullish as hell, resistance has moved above $140.

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

People have become more cautious since the big crash, so 'bubbles' pop earlier but will also crash less hard. Hopefully this will lead to more stability and less panic buying because they know a correction will soon follow if it goes up too fast.

xorglub

full member

Activity: 204

Merit: 100

Is it me or today's bubble deflates exactly the same way as the big april one ?
It would mean $90-$100 resistance is key, like the $50 was for the "big" bubble. If it holds, both bubbles should be called over. If not the bears win.

UKMark

full member

Activity: 144

Merit: 100

Empty vessels make most noise.

Quote from: DrG on April 19, 2013, 07:16:12 AM

And now the 8AM buyback is kicking in (US East coast time)

Lucky they woke up isn't it Grin

DrG

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And now the 8AM buyback is kicking in (US East coast time)

Miz4r

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1000

Bottom is being tested right now, gonna bounce up and down for a while like a skippy ball. Tongue

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