Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3420. (Read 26713551 times)

If we go below $900  $500


Then, ok, something new and "worrying" is happening.


Also, a few years back, a mere few years back, BTC was in the 3000's   , and no, it really does not matter why (covid)


Jesus, Mary mother of Joseph


So much fuss

None of this is even in the slightest bit surprising.

*Looks at BTC CHART.


 *BTC JUST DOING WHAT BTC HAS DONE MULTIPLE TIMES BEFORE.


*SHRUGS

bitcoin is struggling to survive at the moment in the crypto space. Those who Invested in Bitcoin are really not happy but they must have faith because it is just like a test of time.

Intrinsic value is always debatable, the native americans left gold lying on the dirt for the useless metal it was to them both soft and heavy it had no purpose to nomadic people and that was correct for them.  Warren Buffet has no use for anything related to Bitcoin, he buys gold via pawn shop operations so he can see a point in revenue of one but not the other.  Its entirely his choice but also he admits he doesnt invest in what he doesnt understand often missing out on technology companies.  Thats all fine, he isnt superman just a human being guessing whats true and he can make mistakes like everybody.

........ talking of senile old farts with dubious morals.


Soros is 91 too.



Not long now and we can all sing ding dong the witch is dead.



One by one all these dodgy old bastards are dying off.



Then we just have to deal with the latest batch of dodgy bastards.

The problem that Buffett has with Bitcoin is that he cannot evaluate it's value like he does for all companies.
Also Bitcoin isn't a company so all his knowledge doesn't apply.

It would have been more fair if he had said that he doesn't invest in products he doesn't understand.

And yes it could have turned out "rat poison squared" if LUNA would have been the first crypto to hit the market  

He is 91.

That old bag of wrinkles that he zimmerfames around with, Munger, is 98.

When he attends Mungers funeral, Warren had may as well just stay at the cemetery and save himself the round trip.

Pair of old cunts.








 

Explanation

 Well, he also said,

“In terms of cryptocurrencies, generally, I can say with almost certainty that they will come to a bad ending.”

 “If I could buy a five-year put on every one of the cryptocurrencies, I’d be glad to do it but I would never short a dime’s worth.”

 On Bitcoin specifically: "It’s not a currency. I mean it does not meet the test of a currency. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s not around in 10 or 20 years."

 Also on Bitcoin specifically: "Stay away from it. Well, it’s a mirage, basically. . . . The idea that it has some huge intrinsic value is just a joke in my view."

 and the pièce de résistance when specifically asked about Bitcoin:

  "Well, it’s probably rat poison squared."

  It would seem as though the Oracle of Omaha doesn't want you anywhere near Bitcoin regardless of what he said about greed and fear.  Pick and choose his advice at your peril.

OT:

One really foreboding sign going on in the debt market is that 10 yr bond yield.

Keep your eyes on it.

It is a really bad sign to see the 10-yr incrementally jump 0.1 points every single trading day.

It is signaling really bad things in the debt market.

The Fed better have a plan to stabilize that.

Shut up, BillynoCoiner, 1BTC = 1BTC. Most of us here are thousands of % up on our investments in bitcoin.


For the genuine people who might be worried right now, don’t be. This is just a minor speed bump on the way to the moon. $250,000 in 2025, BTFD.


@jameslavish
$BTC owners: Everything you are feeling right now...

is in here.

https://twitter.com/jameslavish/status/1536807223665434624?s=21

Explanation

Billy knows his shit man.
How much money did you guys lose hahahaha.
Gonna gobble up those sweet coins at 10k. Losers hahaha.

Link (or pic) or it didn't happen.


You seem to be broad brushing newbies a bit more than I would like to do, even though I probably don't really disagree greatly with what you are saying overall.

For sure, there would be some tendencies for newbies to take a while to establish a BTC position, even if they might also be lump  summing into bitcoin, and even someone like Michael Saylor who came into bitcoin as a newbie in around August 2020 a seemingly balls to the wall position by injecting several hundred million dollars of his then company cash reserves, which I believe was around 70% of the company's cash reserves at that time, he actually continued to engage in various kinds of more or less intense injecting of cash into buying bitcoin for more than a year before he kind of slowed down with a somewhat slower pace.

For sure, Saylor was an outlier newbie, but still my point remains that sometimes even folks/entities who have already established a decently-sized investment portfolio could take a bit of time to build up their BTC position.

For some folks who really do not have much of any investment portfolio, it could take them 2-5 years or more just to build up a kind of feeling of a meaningful base through DCA strategy and maybe some lump sum investing and buying on dips from time to time to supplement their strategies...and for sure, anyone who has "successfully" gone through some of the earliest years of attempting to get their investment portfolio up to a kind of decently-sized and meaningful amount can feel some of the frustration in terms of getting to a point that it is feeling decently-sized and maybe some diversification or even some more aggressiveness and/or experimentation might be in order once achieving a more substantial and meaninful level of accumulation.

A lot of people do nt even make it to such a stage.. maybe these days we might ballparkedly call it $50k to $100k.. so many folks will spin their wheels and then maybe get up to $20k or some other amount that is short of "meaningful/substantial" and then feel some need to buy some nice car or to go on a vacation or to use their investment in some kind of way to make their life better, when they should be trying to segregate that money and to allow that money to compound upon itself...  and don't get me wrong.. I made some of those rookie mistakes along the way, too.  I can look back at my record and see those periods and those mistakes, and I had not thought about them as being any kind of mistake at the time that I was engaging in such dilution of my investment portfolio to life the good life.. fuck me for being dumb like that.

And in some sense, it really can start to be noticed when the investment portfolio starts to build and compound on itself.. and even though bitcoin seems to have had provided some rocket fuel for my own compounding effects in my investment portfolio, such effects of the rocket fuel are not necessarily obvious in any kind of overnight transformational way..   In other words, it can actually still take some decent amount of time to actually see those rocketing compounding periods reflected in the growth of the investment portfolio - even when it has BTC contained in parts therein - and also to see the overall investment portfolio hold its bottom values too. and only go so low.. and then climb too.


You do not necessarily need to be a veteran member to get some decent ideas about what the historical charts say.  The data is there, and some folks will have superior abilities to surmise ideas about where the BTC price might go but also to attempt to protect themselves for either extreme.. including preparing for UP.. if that might be deemed as protection also?

And, we should be able to appreciate that even "veteran members" will sometimes make some pretty big fuck-ups along the way at various points in their journey - whether they know better or they believe this time is different or whatever other theory that they have that causes them to NOT sufficiently/adequately prepare for UP or down (both at the same time)... and I am not even saying that I am excluded from the mistake-making club...

Hopefully we learn some lessons along the way, but surely a lot of us (including even yours truly) will make similar mistakes a few times before a better practice gets adopted.. and sure, there may well even be some cases of better practices that are adopted and then transgressions happen, too.   There have been times in which I have asked "veteran" members:  "What the fuck are you doing?  you know better than that, no?"

Oh, by the way, sometimes some decently bad moves do end up working out.. too.. so sometimes any of us can have some lucky outcomes, we had made mistakes.. I remember one member.. called gold fish or something like that who had accidentally entered into an 80x leverage.. dumb shit.. and it ended up paying off quite well for that now leet member.


I am going to tell you again that a lot of this takes time to build up any kind of a position, and you should be dealing with whatever situation is in front of you for yourself to attempt to make as good of a situation that you can for ur lil selfie with whatever resources that you have and surely accounting for your various individual particulars, and by the way, it is not infrequent that the relatively newbies will catch up and surpass various veteran members because the newbies engage in solid ongoing good practices and might even be dealing with way fewer resources at their stead, and they do not overly gamble with their principle, ad they end up catching up and surpassing various veteran members who employ worse practices and shorter-term thinking that does not end up paying off as well for the shorter-term thinkers.

Of course there might be some members with seemingly insurmountable leads, but I don't see any kind of reason to be attempting to compete with them, even though maybe even with your plodding along with ongoingly good practices, it may well end up being the case that some seemingly insurmountable positions can end up being overcome by the members with better practices. .and surely.. compounding is a very powerful force, and fucking up at various points along the way can really handicap some member who might have thought that they were being smarter than everyone else and ended up spending way too much of their BTC holdings too soon and unable to get those holdings back.

We also have some ideas that it continues to be quite likely that the amount of BTC that any of us needs to reach fuck-you status is lower and lower with the passage of time, so even merely acquiring 2 BTC can end up being quite powerful.. and some of the guys with 10 BTC might not be able to hand onto their BTC because they are too busy buying Lambos, property and businesses that go bust and various other ways in which fools will frequently end up being parted from their money.

I do have a chart (that likely needs to be a wee bit revised to slope the upper numbers a bit flatter) that attempts to show that if we go by the 200-week moving average for our BTC valuation, the number of BTC to reach fuck-you status has been going down quite stupendously through Bitcoin's history, and it is likely to continue to go down into the future.. at least hopefully (no guarantees, of course).

By the way, I recently ran into a relative who historically had a lot of money problems, but then when one of his parents died a few years ago, he was doing quite well for a year or so after that, and then he seemed to have gotten back into a similar kind of ongoing cashflow and even seeming desperation problems but then I saw him again after his second parent died just recently and gosh he had a lot of nice toys (cars, boats, etc), which caused me to consider that it is likely that the second parent had much more liquid value to pass onto this undeserving and low time preference kind of a kid.  It's a bit sad to see, even though he is currently living it up quite well.  He was even telling me about a trip that he went on and volunteering to tell me about some relatively costly items that he had bought (that would have previously been beyond his means to be able to purchase such items) that were not currently in his possession, but were going to be delivered later.

I'm thinking like "holy shit"  I thought that sometimes I like to go on spending sprees (and I can afford it), but even I am not spending that amount of money in that short of a timeframe.  So, I do not know the totals that he received, but I am imagining that one or two years, he is likely going to be back to his prior states of not having enough money to cover his expenses.. I guess we call that living beyond our means.. which is another practice that can end up allowing for newbies to get ahead of those who  have tendencies to live quite a bit above their means.. and who prematurely blow their wadd (meaning depleting their principle)


I suppose that you can spin up all kinds of scenarios to suggest the pain might be theorized as the same or similar in terms of how excited a newbie might get about price drops and the veteran might well be less excited about the drop.. even though the veteran still may well be better off than the newbie in financial and psychological ways... even though the newbie is rooting for down and the veteran is not.

Sure, there may well be some ways in which we might be talking past each other... I was not even suggesting that the veteran member would be in more pain, necessarily, but instead suggesting that newbies who hardly have any BTC are more likely to be rooting for DOWNity rather than veteran members because the newbie is hardly even losing anything... so you were describing some weak ass veterans because from your perspective they were protesting too much about the BTC price going down.

I am going to spin my own hypothetical to try to be in the ballpark of some of your numbers and attempt to show some angle regarding what kind of a point that I had been attempting to make..

Let's say that a veteran member might have had an investment portfolio of somewhere in the $100k arena in 2013, so his/her target was to get to 10% in BTC within the next 1-2 years, so by the time 2015 comes, he had gotten to his 10% by the middle of 2015, and his average cost per BTC ended up being around $666, so he ends up getting 15 BTC during that time frame.
Total investment value
2013-2015
$100k - regular investment
$10k  - 15 BTC  (10%)
___________
$110 - total

By the time we are at the end of 2021 towards the peak of the BTC price the veteran has gotten about 80% appreciation in his regular portfolio, but he has about 100x appreciation in his BTC (going with an easy number $66,600)
$180k - regular investment
$1million - 15 BTC.  (85%)
______
$1,180,000 - total

Let's say that our current June 2022 crash causes a 20% drop in the value of the regular portfolio and a 65% drop in the value of the BTC.
$144k - regular investment
$350k - 15 BTC.  (71%)
______
$494k - total

Let's say with inflation a newbie investor may well be coming in with a $200k (double just because -  everything has gone up) investment portfolio and a desire to acquire $20k worth of BTC, and for sure such newbie investor is going to be much more appreciative of our BTC price drop in terms of whether s/he can get BTC at $20k versus buying at the higher prices of $40k to $60k that had been in place between November 2021 and earlier in 2022... So any price drop is going to excite the newbie investor more... but the amount that the veteran investor had lost (in the ballpark of $650k) is way more than the $10k that s/he had originally invested. and sure the veteran investor has way more value than the newbie ONLY coming in with $200k and $20k.. and sure at most, the newbie investor is ONLY acquiring about 1/15 the amount of BTC that the veteran investor has already acquired.


I see what you are saying, and it seems to be a bit different of a point than what I was trying to outline, and I stand by my earlier comments... as supplemented by my above hypothetical.


So?


Yes.. sometimes there are typos.... and sometimes maybe I could go back and clarify to the extent that it might matter.

Share means Satoshi, right?

If we would follow the logic of Warren Buffett this is the perfect time to buy as his quote goes:
"Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy only when others are fearful"

Explanation

THE DIP OF THE DIP !!