Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3425. (Read 26713512 times)

I think we all hope that.

New balls, please.

Explanation

I hope the bottom is in... time for 400k 

At least its stopped going down for the moment.

It seems that what I said in regard to bitcoin trading not being a zero sum game is quite a bit more concrete than your response.



You seem to dislike the existence of trading within bitcoinlandia.



So?  And what is the point, then?



I would be disinclined to hire anyone who seems to be combating me... we might not be able to come to an agreement about what to do and if the job has been sufficiently satisfied.



I guess we won't be seeing you in these here parts much longer then.


You have to choose for yourself. how to spend your time and energies. .and sometimes there are only so many hours in the day.. so choices need to be made.


I look at my earliest years of investing, and I see I made quite a few mistakes along the way, but I alway tried to be ongoingly investing a certain portion of my salary.. like 10% or more.. so it takes a long time to build up an investment portfolio.


One thing is learning for yourself, and another thing is figuring out whether it is a good idea to share anything like that (or some portion of it), especially while you are going through with it.  We have a back and forth going on in this thread, so sometimes you will get responses and sometimes you will not.  Sometimes I share information about trading or my set up or changes to my set up or changes to my thinking or even mistakes that I made and how I might have ended up recovering the matter, and I have even posted about some mistakes that I made in which I had not been able to recover, and sometimes crickets.. and other times there are responses... some things I just do not want to post because I might be too confused while in the middle of the situation or there might be too many personal failures that I do not want to share, but surely at some point it could be helpful to try to flesh out the matter within a postening.  there can be risks when posting some personal circumstances, for sure.

So finally I got a chance to slightly "improve" my average buy price by -6.7%... thank you panic sellers.

What a state.

Think I'd rather take my chances with Shakira or Avril Lavigne. Preferably both.

no blatant misrepresentation happened.


My perspective is if you are using significant portions of your BTC holdings for margin bets, then you are gambling.  I stand by my position based on what facts I have heard to date.. Of course, I have not heard all of your personal nitty gritty details (aka facts), but I heard that you were in a position to lose everything .. which I would consider to be sufficiently enough information to proclaim too much to have at stake in such a play (aka gambling)... and I would consider getting into such a situation to have been gambling.. .. whether you have a 100% track record of not gambling before that point in time seems mostly irrelevant... For example, if you say: "I spent 30 years of my life as a saint and I did not gamble one bit for those 30 years," but then "on year 31, I gambled everything and lost it all, but I still consider myself to not be a gambler".. yeah right.   I am not going to go along with that kind of a characterization of saintliness, if that is what you are striving to suggest.

Usually staking something less than 10% into a position might be reasonable to off-set some other position that you may have taken in some other part of your investment portfolio... but it does not sound like you are offsetting anything, and of course, I do not know all the nitty gritty details beyond that you had been poised to lose everything... which again generally I categorize as a kind of gambling.


Seems that you are quibbling about unimportant matters.


I believe that I have been sufficiently fair to you.

Explanation

I observed same a few days ago—and that’s a good thing.  Alts get the moon-chasers and the huge pumps.  That means they take the worst pain, when it is time for a “correction”.  My most profitable alt, from which I had gained much BTC, is currently down about 89% from its 2021 high; how does BTC look now?  The real shitcoins on my watchlist are down around 96%–99% from 2021 highs.  Hahah.  No, I am not holding the bag there.


Do you suppose that everyone in the world can become a millionaire overnight by investing $10k?


Probably not, IMO.  But just remember that the P&D shitcoin market with 100x gains also comes with 99% losses.  Trading is a zero-sum game.  Typical shitcoins are essentially Ponzis, with absolutely no value except pump-and-dump trading.  And the VCs are way ahead of you, in a rigged game that they win no matter what.


IMO, you should just stick with BTC.  Buy and hold.  If that’s not enough for you, work hard and buy more BTC.

I say that as someone who has greatly profited (in BTC) from altcoins.  If I were chasing moons like you, I would have gotten rekt!  I have enough altcoin experience to be nigh certain of what would happen, if I had the attitude that you express.  You are lucky that you broke even.

Ok... believe what you will.  It's a free country.. last time I checked... which was a while back, admittedly.


I am not going to deny the possibility of such.


No problem.  We can try to stick with substance.. and sometimes the personal zingers should be merely considered emphasis in regards to the substance anyhow....

Difference of opinion perhaps?  Philosophies, practices, etc.


I doubt that the personal parts would be the important parts.. .and I stand by my earlier response because I am pretty sure that there was substance contained therein.. rather than getting worried at whether i labeled what you said or you as dumb.. I asm largely saying what you said is dumb and also that sometimes you repeat the same ideas..  I think that I adequately backed up why I believe that it is dumb in my earlier responses..


Ok.  we likely have a broader audience here. .and just does not seem to do a lot of good to take a real extreme position and then get screwed because bitcoin overly corrects.



I believe that people and their value are going to naturally flow into BTC ofver ti e (yes.. Gresham's law again, and the most sound money being bitcoin and bitcoin ongoingly serving as the best of asymmetric bets that we have ever seen).

So from my perspective, there is no need to sacrifice yourself.  What seems to happen is that people can invest into BTC and be ideological and end up killing two birds with one stone.. support an ideological commitment and end up getting richie at the same time... as long as there is no overdoing it in regards to making sure that all your expenses are covered.. and sure over invest is o.k... but you have to have your expenses covered and projected out too.. .. and I already explained the need to have your expenses and cashflow figured out for 6-24 months in advance, even if the cashflow might have some uncertainties and lack of steadiness.. there are ways to accomplish those kinds of projection matters out in conservative ways and in ways that allow for ongoing BTC accumulation that takes place 4-10 years or longer into the future (and even over accumulation).. and at the same time, likely setting up oneself to become richie in those kind of longer time frames.


Sounds good to me...normie newbies can start relatively small and work their way up.. of course.



There is a value to attempt to practice what you preach.. sure you do not need to follow every single thing that you would preach to a newbie.. because the longer that you are in bitcoin the more you might be able to be more aggressive without devolving into gambling and of course newbie normies have to get used to various things in the beginning which could take several months to a year to get comfortable, because not all normie newbies learn as fast as Michael Saylor.

And, another valuable aspect does have to do with whether you are in a stage of BTC accumulation, maintenance or liquidation.. so it can also take a while to get through accumulation and into maintenance.. and personally I give less than two shits if you are more experienced in bitcoin, early stages of accumulation still involve a lot of the same steps in terms of DCA, buying on dips and lump sum investing as the primary strategies... at least from my perspective..

In other words, it takes a long time to build your investment portfolio.. and if you lose most or all of your principle, then you really should not be taking short cuts to make up for your fuck up.. you gotta start over...and you gotta go back to the same things that normie newbies have to do.. and the main difference between someone who is experienced in bitcoin versus a normie newbie is that you already should know what to do so in regards to assessing your own personal financial/psychological situation and you might be able to be more aggressive, but there are not really much if any short-cuts because you still have to make sure that all of your ongoing expenses are going to be covered so you do not get trapped into any kind of emergency situation in which you to have to sell at any time that is anything other than completely your own choosing and based on parameters that you likely already set including letting the BTC price come to you rather than forcing the matter.. or trying to rush certain aspects.. of course, you can rob a bank or somehow increase your cashflow (not that I am advocating breaking any laws or even getting involved in shitcoins or scams), so then you have a larger BTC stash, so sometimes increasing your available to be used for bitcoin cashflow is easier said than done, too..


of course there are levels.. and getting some exposure may well be better than not...


Fair enough.. it does tend to grow on folks especially if they don't screw up and they can continue to either buy small amounts or just hold for decently long periods.. such as 4 -10 years or more...and hopefully at some point they well figure out to hold some of their own keys.. but I do know some folks who have done quite well without holding their keys.. of course, we all know that is less than ideal for longer periods of time.. but there is OLY so much that any of us can do to lure folks away from employing the services of third party custodians.


Yes.. some people have to learn on their own.. and I am not sure how much work I might be willing to do to teach them.. Are you willing to hold their hands for such a long time?


I have frequently thought about myself as competing with myself to figure out what I can best do in order to tailorize my BTC approach to my own finances and psychology..  So it is my belief that each person has to accomplish these kind os assessment for themselves whether they aspire to reach fuck you status or not or whether they are able to determine what is their fuck you status and then set forth strategies and practices to be able to reach it or not..

There is some individualized assessments regarding even figuring out what is each of our own fuck you status level that might well vary uon cost of living in whatever area hat we happen to be and if we actually have a preference to even try to reach it or not.

By the way.. I have never exactly said what my personal fuck you status level is, but I attempted to set a level of $1 million for westerners.. and then after March 2020, I started to suggest that such $1 million level would need to be doubled to $2 million, and I have heard arguments that there might need to be a higher level of increase just to maintain the equivalency of the earlier $1 million. .but for now, I am sticking with $2 million as the entry level stating level. and sure there could be some real life considerations that cause the need to increase that entry-level to higher than double the pre-March 2020 level.   Each of us should attempt to be sufficiently competent enough to figure out what would be a good, reasonable and practical level for ourselves.

So ultimately part of my point would be that you have to assess for yourself and compete with yourself because it should not matter so much about what some random guy (referring to yours truly) on the interwebs might assess regarding what your financial and psychological situation is in respect to your various investments including and perhaps not limited to bitcoin should be or could be.



I am still having some troubles understanding why it would matter very much,  and of course each of us has to decide these kinds of matters regarding how we are going to treat our bitcoin allocation.. whether, how much and even how to go about it.


Ok.


Ok.  I made my points already and you made your points.. so why argue further about it at this time..?  I suppose the subject is likely to come up again.. and maybe I will say something and maybe I won't..   Will have to cross that bridge when we get there.. if we do?

I don't consider myself having any problems.

I cannot tell if you are purposefully mischaracterizing what I tend to say about starting to invest into BTC .. kind of comes off as a strawman attack.


Again you are presuming some kind of a problem or some need that I might have or even that I might have been open to advice about how to make possible improvements.  

For me, it seems that I already have enough things on my plate in terms of "things to do," so prioritizing remains within my discretion, too.


Is there a point?


I hardly even understand the point that you are making.. It's not like I am not already aware of the various dynamics that you show in the charts.. so fucking what?  It does not change any of the earlier points that I had already been making in terms of each of us needing to figure out our finances and how to balance our allocations in to BTC including developing our accumulation strategy and our target accumulation level which should then bring us to more of a maintenance stage.. which could take years to get there.. depending on if we have lump sums that we can allocate into bitcoin or if we have to rely upon more of a DCA type of strategy..

Many older investors who come into bitcoin might already have a decently strong investment portfolio that they can just reallocate parts of it into bitcoin, but sometimes even older folks have not established much if any of an investment portfolio and they get cocky in their 20s, 30s and even in their early 40s in terms of considering that they are going to be rich and all that pie in the sky bullshit without actually building an investment portfolio and then at some point they realize that time is escaping them they have not accumulated shit.. so then they end up being kind of fucked when it comes to their investment timeline becoming way shorter than it had been and they had not made much if any progress in their younger years.

I have already said several times that I came to bitcoin as an older investor.. so I had already established a pretty strong overall investment portfolio prior to even allocating into bitcoin.. but I also know how I got to the stage that I had gotten in building my prior to bitcoin investment portfolio, and I doubt that getting into bitcoin earlier will be helpful unless some prudence is exercised in terms of having a strategy especially if there is not any ability to have some lump sum abilities to invest into bitcoin.  My point is that there can be a whole hell of a lot of advantages to having bitcoin as an option, but there still is need for action both in terms of building principle and not fucking it away by taking too many risks with it.. otherwise if you continue to take risks you have to continue to start over again and again when you lose all of your principle because you are gambling too much with too much of your principle.. it can take a while to build these skills, to see value in building principle building skills and see value in not gambling with principle..



Well it is difficult to know how long we might be bouncing in or around the 200-Week MA... so maybe you will be able to buy more BTC at these prices, and maybe not.

Of course, the fewer BTC you have the less you would care about the BTC price going down.


Sure. you can wish for it.. but it may or may not happen... so there is that.


Yeah.,. sometimes it might not be necessary to say anything... but surely your choice.

If we calculate from ATH to ATH it was a 40x from $30 to $ 1200. A 16x from $1200 to $20000 and a 3.5x from $20000 to $70000. All round numbers for easy calculating. Just a number out of my a.. -> 1.5x for the next top then? Wich puts us at 105k. Or we wont see a new ATH ever again?

Fact is, the bullruns getting weaker and we had no blow off top this time. People escaping into alts to make those 10x, 50x and 100x gains. Bitcoin wont give that much of a return ever again. I mean those 20x returns (calculated from ATH to ATH). I think those crazy times are over where you can become a millionaire over night by investing 10k. Maybe even the shitcoin era with 100x gains is over.

To be honest, in 2021 I switched 20% of my BTC to different alts and I doubled my invested BTC that way. Unfortunately greed kicked in and I never realized those profits. So, after a crazy 1 1/2 years of euphoria, anger and other emotional rollercoaster, I am where I started pre shitcoin investment lol. ZERO gains! Yet am glad I got out of alts before shit got crazy.

Well, Newbies always lose more than veteran members. Every time BTC hit's a new high or pumps, Newbies enter the market.
Veteran members are early adopters of Bitcoin, buying cheap bitcoin while newbies are not. Most of the newbies bought Bitcoin at an All-time high because newbies didn't understand the market pattern. Almost 80%+ newbies though it is going up and it will be going up more while veteran members know it will do some corrections. So, If you bought 10 BTC at $3000 on average, it's a total $30K of your investment which is about $220K now. While newbies may be bought 2 BTC at $40K rate, and their investment is $80K which is around $44K now. So, tell me who is at a loss and who should panic more?

Suppose you are talking about my total wealth and their size of the loss. Let me explain one more time.

Suppose my total saving is on $20K and I have $10K in BTC which is about half BTC at this moment. My yearly income is about $20K/year.
At the same time, An veteran member's Total savings is $200K and he has $100K in BTC which is about 5 BTC at this moment. His yearly income is about $200K/year. In my opinion, Both of's pain is the same here. If you are a billionaire, $100 is nothing to you. at the same time, If you are a millionaire, You care about $100 but $10 is nothing. The example may not make much sense, But, What I am trying to say is, If a billionaire loses 50% wealth, and a millionaire also loses 50% of his wealth. Both are in the same pain. No matter how much was their loss. It's about % and who you are. A Billionaire would not much care if he lost $100K. But, A millionaire will definitely care if he loses $100K.

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Your word choice and grammar always make me confused dude. I understand there are some typos when you write a big wall of texts.

Ok when I checked and when I wrote the statement none were.
I was looking at CoinMarketCap and they were in the range 0.92-0.97...
Looking at the charts now and I'm starting to doubt my sanity...

Anyhow I'm happy they are back to $1

Explanation

I use USDC and it's fine too, always in the 0.999-1.001 range

False statement if there is a counterexample.

Tether is doing fine.  From where I sit right now, it’s trading a whopping 15–16 bps under USDC; that’s a big difference for USDT (whether +/-), but hey, it’s had a tough month.  Other markets may differ.

(There is no such thing as maintaining a peg at exactly 1.000000 at all times.  No one ever promised that, and it is impossible with a free market due to how markets work.)

I wish for decentralized, permissionless price-stable money the same way that people used to wish futilely for decentralized, permissionless money of any kind.  At this particular moment, I would just rather use USDT than be tied directly to the banking system for dollar transactions.

Lat year in the months of November they had completely halted all withdrawals due to large backlog. This is not new with Binance. You can check this tweet - https://twitter.com/binance/status/1455137004333711364?t=QAkifiD81UZea-XupI0WMg&s=19

There is literally no USD stablecoin trading at the 1 dollar.