Who sold at the bottom?
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3449. (Read 26712962 times)
June 12, 2022, 09:56:20 AM
June 12, 2022, 09:42:58 AM
For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.
To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...
To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...
Yeah for sure fair enough point... I expect max pain to be inflicted on both.... guess we will see in which order. Feel like we have another leg down and then things start to get interesting ... but we shall see.
Agree with you here as still not doubting another leg down, re-testing $25K level, even the 200 Week MA. This would line up nicely with Weekly RSI @ 30 for a solid bounce.
I just doubt a move to $25K, even $20K, would have much effect on the Bitfinex longs right now. Probably they will just keep rising until price rebounds.
I'd prefer price to test the $20K-$25K asap, and get to critical oversold levels, rather than re-testing after a dead cat bounce. That would open the door for further downside if the RSI recovers.
June 12, 2022, 09:27:10 AM
For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.
To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...
Yeah for sure fair enough point... I expect max pain to be inflicted on both.... guess we will see in which order. Feel like we have another leg down and then things start to get interesting ... but we shall see.
June 12, 2022, 09:10:23 AM
Of course, I hear you... however, I just feel like the fact that the BTC longs, on finex, are so far above ATH , at these price levels, to be too far out of kilter, and many of them are long, as seen on spikes on chart from 42K...... risky biscuits. If we would have seen the massive spikes in LONGS from the past week or two, I would assume they were in better shape.
Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.
Well, things do have that downity look at the moment. Which means more stacking.
June 12, 2022, 09:10:15 AM
Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.
Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.
They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.
To put it simply, I don't trust the Bitfinex bull whales as there are many OGs with too many Bitcoins. While they are stacking up longs on Bitfinex, they have the ability to head to Binance and FTX in order to liquidate the shorts. As to me it seems very suspicious how they've been consistently making profit in the past year or so, without a considerable dose of market manipulation if I had to guess (both long and short).
Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.
For sure, I agree with the max pain theory, but currently max pain would be a short squeeze as the market is predominantly short. Not a long squeeze of Bitfinex that's only ranked no.7 based on leverage volume (becoming irrelevant). Max pain would also be trapping many sellers below $30K, that could end up being very painful for many in the long-term, similar to trapping many buyers above $60K.
To me it also seems clear that the Bifinex whales intend to stack longs all the way down from $40K to $20K. For all we know it could be with 0 leverage that is then applied later (if this is possible)...
June 12, 2022, 09:07:03 AM
Less than 100k blocks left to the next halving and -60% from the ATH. This is the time to add to the stash again.
June 12, 2022, 09:01:21 AM
June 12, 2022, 09:00:44 AM
Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.
Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.
They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.
Of course, I hear you... however, I just feel like the fact that the BTC longs, on finex, are so far above ATH , at these price levels, to be too far out of kilter, and many of them are long, as seen on spikes on chart from 42K...... risky biscuits. If we would have seen the massive spikes in LONGS from the past week or two, I would assume they were in better shape.
Never know, could all be fine... I just always expect the market to go for max pain...... and for some market participants, to want to impose max pain.
June 12, 2022, 08:48:49 AM
Wouldn't expect anything less right now. Bitfinex longs (yellow line) are inversely correlated to the overall leverage market. While the market is short, Bitfinex is long.
Traders on that platform take profits when price is rising, and otherwise accumulate when price is dropping (or sideways). Using very low leverage to avoid liquidation I imagine.
They will start taking profits when price is rising, as long as they can avoid a covid-like capitulation crash.
June 12, 2022, 08:44:34 AM
"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."
https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089
lol.
I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated. It will be a good thing IMO.
I have the feeling most of them won't get liquidated...
what makes you think that ? (out of interest)
Perhaps, we shall have to see, guess it depends on their leverage levels and collateral levels, and their entry points. We shall see. I am thinking that the longs will increase more.... and eventually a culling is inevitable, and healthy.
These things usually have a tipping point, followed by cascading liquidations.
June 12, 2022, 08:36:21 AM
"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."
https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089
lol.
I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated. It will be a good thing IMO.
I have the feeling most of them won't get liquidated...
June 12, 2022, 08:15:38 AM
"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."
https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089
lol.
I gotta say..... I am looking forward to a large swath of those longs to get liquidated. It will be a good thing IMO.
June 12, 2022, 08:09:42 AM
So what are your views about the decentralised web Jack is bringing up with Web 5.0 which will change everything and being bitcoin maximalist excites me about this 
Not studied it properly yet.... however, what took them so long? about time we see more being built on/use being made of the BTC network.
As for the maximalist thing, meh, does not impress me.... we need more interoperability/composability and innovation across the board. I do not mind who does it, who builds what upon what, as long as it works (or will work eventually) and is useful.
The name is funny, web5... lol
Also.... it is hardly a unique, new innovation , I mean it is for BTC, great about time, but, ermmm, yeah, Jack & co didn't "invent" this concept... they are just implementing it using BTC, which is great.
On the negative side.... it is Jack, a person I have deep rooted reservations about given his track record/twitters track record, and their behaviour at Twitter when he was leading the charge there. I mean, the very last straw for me was the narrative control/censorship/blocking of people/topics etc, based on clear political bias. Banning Trump, the Hunter laptop story and on and on and on. Pure scum, and Jack defended that shit repeatedly, I do not trust him, nor his judgement....
June 12, 2022, 08:03:28 AM
June 12, 2022, 08:00:10 AM
"The Bitfinex Saudis have been adding to their longs and have informed me they are now targeting 420k."
https://twitter.com/JohalMiles/status/1535720048265945089
June 12, 2022, 08:00:10 AM
So what are your views about the decentralised web Jack is bringing up with Web 5.0 which will change everything and being bitcoin maximalist excites me about this
June 12, 2022, 07:38:14 AM
At some point those longs will be right.
.....well, at least the ones that manage to not get liquidated
June 12, 2022, 07:27:57 AM
At some point those longs will be right.
June 12, 2022, 07:12:44 AM
June 12, 2022, 07:11:42 AM
...seems the bottom is in...
https://twitter.com/nihkalowz/status/1535876453262233601?cxt=HHwWgsCo-eXfw9AqAAAA
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