Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3445. (Read 26713056 times)

...under 500 Billion market cap

Are all these sells actually real?

Aren't there quite some exchanges selling non existing coins to buy back lower?

Yeah it's that average electricity cost of all miners that I'm curious about. Thought Phil might have an idea about that, I know he is on the low end of the scale though. From those numbers looks like below 20 there might be a bit of shutting things down then.

...

They (.gov, Mainstream Media, WEF, etc.) are gaslighting us, guys.

Gaslighting is an especially nasty form of lying, where the liars try to make it look like the victim is at fault or even insane.  It is insidious, and they use psychological trickery, it's quite advanced the progress that has been made in propaganda.

Stock futures are down hard tonight.  The investor classes are now awake to the fact that inflation is nowhere near as low as 8.6%...  Job losses are incoming, wages are stagnant in our inflationary environment.  Whatever gains in wages that come will not nearly keep up with the current inflation, and might not even come close should inflation get worse.  It will almost surely get worse.

Many assets are at risk as well.  Home values will likely start down as mortgage rates go up.  Homes have already shot up in price (as have rents).

Assets and wages are going down.  Living expenses are going up.

And typically what happens AFTER bad inflation is a crash.  Typically very ugly.  25% unemployment level depressions seem to occur once in a lifetime (Fourth Turning).

And they are looking at war.....


So what to do?  

First, debt may look good in an inflationary epoch, but the banks will cotton on to that very soon and index interest rates on loans (bankers are not stupid), STAY OUT OF DEBT to the extant you can.  

Second, BTC seems to be the only "crypto" worth a damn (and I have looked at various "Alts" in some detail), so yes I would HODL BTC and I will be buying (poco-a-poco) more.  Still, I have not become convinced that BTC is invincible, that a .gov attack of one nasty sort or another could severely damage BTC despite it's many strengths.  I know and understand this is not a popular view here at W.O.  All I can really suggest is that over-concentration in one asset is way riskier that I would certainly do.

Third, my moniker here suggests that I hold gold.  Everyone should consider owning some physical gold, and keep it carefully hidden.  Cash too.  If you have a solid small business, great.

Fourth, there are tons of websites about "preparation", Plan Bs, diversification into non-traditional assets, etc.  Most folks here no doubt have looked into some of this in some detail.  Preparation, I have found through these many years, is a complex topic, it is also expensive. Many family members of a "prepper" may object, that can cause its own set of problems.  Preparation is wildly different for each person, depending on a huge range of factors, all of them interrelated and uncertain...  

Uncertainty is a big problem too, for who knows what will happen?  I sure don't.  I have many doubts about everything.  I have no idea what will happen in the future, what pandemics are next, what Klaus Schwab or Bill Gates or Nancy Pelosi will try next.  NO ONE knows what will happen.

In the past several weeks I have become more convinced that we have relatively little time left to get ready for a very rough storm.  Keep your heads down.  Lower your risks.  Get going on protecting yourself and your legacy.  Think long-term.

/rant


edited

well hard to say but btc is at 11 cents a th.

So a 50th s17 earns $5.50 a day

it burns 50 kwatts so if you have

12 cent power down 50 cents
11 cent power up.      0 cents
10 cent power up     50 cents
 9  cent power up     $1.00
 8  cent power up.    $1.50
 7  cent power up.    $2.00


so all big miners with cheap power are doing well

ie at

six cent     $2.50 a day
five cent    $3.00 a day
four cent   $3.50 a day
three cent $4.00 a day

if you believe the floor is set by mining

edit the floor has been in the 5-6 cent power costs and  we are not there.

we are at 11 cent for break even so if you think we are hitting the floor

it can mean more hash and lower  price.



edit:
So a 1000 unit s17 mine is making 2500 a day if they are at 6 cent cost.

no one is really under 3 cent cost as buildings, gear repair  and workers add to cost.

Many big farms get in trouble at 6-8 cents.

Now .6 x 11 cents is 6.6 cents so

.6 x 26k = 15.6k this means real trouble if we go there and stay there.

as 50 x 6.6 = $3.30
and 6 x 50 = $3.00   30 cents a unit

and I am not going into s19 gear  just s17 as a lot of mines are fully paid off s17 gear.

if a farm switched to s19 and is in debt they will fail at 15.6k price.

I don't see us going to 15.6k maybe 18.8k or 19.5k

oh Meth is dropping like a mofo down to 1350

easy to calculate from my initial numbers....at 5c/kwh, they won't until about 8.8K/btc; at 10c/kwh until 17.6K/btc.
it strictly depends on their electricity supply price.
they would also mine at a small loss, but only for a limited time.

Sorry, I mean the point where miners start shutting down equipment because BTC price is too low.


Big down candle in 3.....2.....1

about 15c/kwh for S19pro (without miner cost amortization).
many people have much less power price.

Do you know what the miner breakevens are at these days?

Nice drops

BTC down

and all major shitcoins down worse. Or is it more.

I have some $$$ set aside

and believe it or not my 2020 tax return refund is coming after a long long long delay.

Maybe we drop lower and when I get the refund I grab more btc.

Thinking more of that interesting times quote myself. In other words, oh shit.

Explanation

well yeah i do suppose screaming towards the ground at mach 15 is "interesting," in a weird hypnotic kinda way.

Another Luna type event? bugger all money though.



https://twitter.com/Pentosh1/status/1536130691578089475?cxt=HHwWhsCygbWut9EqAAAA

 Sorry for your loss.  That's a lot to take in a short time.
 Thanks for sharing the music with us - it's powerful medicine.

All of those require price movements.  Not price stability.

Profitable trading definitionally requires “buy low, sell high” (same for shorts in the reverse order).  I think that mathematically, the only way to profit from “buying low, selling high” when the price sits still is to exploit some kind of a spread—either intra-market (market maker), or inter-market (arbitrage).  Those types of traders attempt to minimize the relevance of price volatility to themselves—in the extreme case, executing (or attempting to execute) risk-free trades with no exposure to price movements.  Others need volatility, for even a unidirectional price movement cannot bring them profit:  If the price only goes forever up to infinity, or forever down until it hits zero, then the only way to profit without leaving money on the table is “buy and hold” (or short and never cover), not actively to trade.


That’s a rather simplistic monetary theory.  I am under no illusions about a hardcapped currency with a static supply ever becoming price-stable.


I monitor street prices in dollars of some various real-world goods and services.  The kinds that ordinary people would need to buy on a regular basis.  Mass-market stuff, nothing obscure or having a niche market.

In the past six months, I have seen up-and-down swings of 10%, 30%, in the extreme case even 50% in apples-to-apples comparisons of the exact same SKU, etc., with the general price trend being up.

“Price stability” means that ordinary people with ordinary needs can draw budgets of weekly, monthly, etc. expenditures based on more or less accurate predictions of how much things will cost.

If swings of 30–50% swings constitute “stability” in your book, who is the goofball?

Zooming out, the dollar has been depreciating rapidly since the Nixon Shock.  Look at a chart.  Only by the standards of what some people deride as a “third-world country” could the U.S. dollar be considered to have had slow depreciation.  Only with very short-term thinking could it be considered to have had “a good run”.

---

I understand Gresham’s Law perfectly well.  Indeed, I even understand that it applies to currencies—not to stocks or to anything that can be treated like a stock.

---

I began before to write a long reply to your earlier long reply re the stock issue.  No time for that now; I think that anyway, I have clearly explained why treating Bitcoin as “like a stock” is a horrible idea.  If you disagree, please don’t argue with me:  Take it up with the SEC.  They’ve been cracking down on stock-like things that people try to call “ICOs”, “DAO governance tokens”, or “NFTs”; I’m sure they’d love to bite into a stock-like thing called “Bitcoin”, if they see people treating it as “like a stock”.  Needless to say, I think that is ridiculous:  Bitcoin is nothing whatsoever like a stock.

You have to remember @BitcoinBunny, these "influencer" will tell whatever story makes them the most money. Obviously videos about Bitcoin and how to HODL won't earn them as much as shilling shitcoins will.

For all we know they are all sitting on 99.9% BTC but just do this to increase said BTC stack..

litecoin is less of "that"...useful for some experiments...for example they are trying some privacy tools now.
not for me, but less s-y.
js

Don't believe these Youtubers, they made themselves look really stupid!

$40,000 ETH


$1,000 Solana


Fuck it, just buy pretty much anything


Bought NFTs and prominently displayed them in his office in light up boxes AFTER he interviewed Michael Saylor for hours.  



To be fair some of them did often state to have BTC as your biggest bag.

But they clearly should have been saying have BTC as your ONLY "crypto" bag!

Shitcoins are ultra shit. Look at Litecoin. $48.
It was at fucking $48 when BTC was $3,800 !!! 

I'm seeing Nasdaq futures down 1.8% right now. Interesting week coming up.

That's what everyone is saying yes but did he mean secular inflation or the spike (I suspect spike and he didn't even consider secular). Before Ukraine and China Omicron Covid response a temporary inflation spike was on the cards for sure, and might still be, but secular inflation is definitely higher from here on out.

Honestly, I don't think the Fed gives a shit about anything, they just follow the white house's orders.