Still range bound between $29,000 & $32,000. Meh, still feels a lot better than $7,600 which is what we were at on 6th June in 2018. If it follows the same path we should bottom at approx $21,000 early in 2023 & then go sideways for a significant period around $25,000 before a slow climb upwards as we enter 2024 which is halvening year. Absolute moon in 2025, something like $250,000.
I still advocate that everything under $30,000 will look like a genius buy within 2 years. Keep stacking those sats, boys.
This is not financial advice.
Maybe you are delusional, LFC.. ?
.#nohomoDidn't the Dude
shake you until some sense came into you in your last meeting? Like the airplane scene? or you just choose not to talk about it?
I am going to use your same year.. 2018.. and of course, we can use other reference points, but I am working with your framework.
What I'm trying to say is that on June 6, 2018 the 200-week moving average was $2,361 (you can see the historical 200-week moving average numbers
here), and that is less than 1/3 of then BTC price (as you pointed it out as $7,600-ish). Even when we got the beginning of the BTC price crash in mid-November 2018 the BTC price was just starting to go below $6k, but the 200-week moving average had moved just above $3k.
Yes, we know that particular crashening brought the BTC price down to $3,124 but then largely the BTC price lingered mostly sub $4k until about late March 2019.
The 200-week moving average slowly moved up through that whole time by about $3-ish per day, so by the time we got to late March, the 200-week moving average was $3,440 - but the BTC price was $4,100.. so through that whole time, the BTC price did not really get below the 200-week moving average, even though the BTC price was close to touching it for a decent period of time.
As I type this post, the 200-week moving average is quite close to $22,200, and it is moving up more than $25 per day. In the next 120 days, we will be in early October, so the 200-week moving average is going to be about $3k higher than it is now, which is above $25k.
I just have a difficult time appreciating how you are even projecting out similar comparatives - even if we go with some kind of 4-year fractional theory method as you seem to be outlining. In some senses, you are suggesting that the BTC price is going to end up going 16% below the 200-week moving average which seems more like a black swan theory rather than employing any kind of realistic fractional theory.
By the way, I am not even proclaiming that the 200-week moving average cannot be breached to the downside.. yet your comparison of 2018 really did not accomplish such... You can see from my already provided link that in 2015, we did get quite a bit of breaches below the 200-week moving average which started at about $190 in January 2015 and ended 2015 at about $260. So in 2015 we did spend quite a bit of time lingering right around the 200-week moving average and even a decent amount below it. Even in March 2020, we had a spike below the 200-week moving average that lasted a couple of weeks, and the 200-week moving average was at about $5,500 at that time.
No problem preparing for worser-case scenarios, and I am likely not going to be removing my buy orders in the lower $20ks and in the $19k area in the coming months, but those seem to be more likely within a kind of black swan scenario rather than any kind of base case scenario (which you seem to be outlining when you are emphasizing a kind of fractional theory comparison) and not even talking about black swans. Of course, the whole damned-world seems to be filled with black swans these days - so maybe in some sense, you and other folks, are just building black swans into their perceptions of the "new normal?" I am not going to do it. even though I am not unprepared both psychologically and financially for those more extreme scenarios, but I am not going to refer to them as any kind of meaningful base case outline of what is a kind of normal expectation of what is going to happen.
