And last but not least: what makes me most optimistic is that if we had no blowoff top, there's a fair chance we won't have a 80% drop. After all, it not only the bulls who can get screwed.
If most of the crypto (sorry Jay I deserve a batslap I know
) world awaits "moar down", "$20k" etc why don't we get some healthy "up" instead?
From the context it seems that you are referring to "crypto" in terms of non-bitcoin, and even if you are wanting a batslappening, we know that some of our current shitcoin purgenings might well end up contributing to some of that value flowing back into BTC, and really you seem to be describing that we could be experiencing some BTC price dynamics similar to the April to June 2019 BTC pumpening --- and it would be difficult to argue against that kind of current purgenings of shitcoins and to end up seeing some of that value flowing into bitcoin.. perhaps? perhaps?
Personally I think this is close to inevitable. In that April to June 2019 Bitcoin pump, dominance rose from 50% to 70%, at a time when the overall market was worth $150 billion, with Bitcoin worth $75 billion. So it seems quite obvious that $30b - $60b following back into Bitcoin helped considerably in the market cap rising +$125 billion to $200 billion. Somewhere between 25-50% responsible maybe, roughly?
Either way, Bitcoin didn't have a blow-off top as has been noted already. Many altcoins (if not most) did have a blow-off top, and therefore likely to enter into a multi-year bear market against BTC at least, many against USD as well, others simply continue there 4 year+ long bear market against BTC like nothing ever happened. The sort of shitcoin bear market where altcoins could bounce back 50% against USD while Bitcoin doubles in price, thus dropping 50% further against Bitcoin, so effectively half the satoshi liquidity is leaving while fiat liquidity is entering, same as in 2019. Many of the best-performing shitcoins are already down 80% to 90%, the minority that will survive for another cycle will likely drop 95-99% before finally recovering, so there is plenty of room to the downside for shitcoins right now. Many are oblivious to the reality that a 95% drop is completely normal for all cryptocurrencies in their first cycles that survive for another, with Bitcoin as well as Ethereum being no exception to that rule either.
The sort of shitcoin selling right now is either longer-term Bitcoiners taking profits back to BTC, regardless of it's fiat value (as is completely irrelevant when trading satoshis) or newer investors selling at a loss, with a minority taking late profits to USD I imagine. Then when Bitcoin finally starts recovering, the newer investors will be left confused as to why there "investments" are under-performing in comparison, and will learn the meaning of the phrase Bitcoin season. Ideally they will also learn to value investments in satoshis, as opposed to fiat, but probably this is too much to ask.
The other reality is that while Bitcoin is down 50%+ from a year ago, it's market dominance is the same as a year ago. It hasn't even begun to climb yet, it's only just starting to break out to the upside by the looks of it. I think this "2019 dynamic" becomes very inviting for the institutions left confused over which cryptocurrencies to invest in, the ones that aren't buying the dip but wanting to buy into a recovery. They then are only left with the choice of investing in the winning horse as it were, once they identify the best performing asset long-term as the no.1.
Bitcoin's rise in market dominance therefore becomes a sort of domino effect with shitcoin liquidity returning to Bitcoin, followed by new capital predominantly entering Bitcoin.