Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3554. (Read 26720873 times)

So this👆 price prediction ended up correct and precised. The price went down strongly from Thursday and it was the highest downward movement this week. The week ended on Saturday.
This movement was dependent on whether I will be accepted in a Sig campaign. If I had been accepted price would have gone up, about $31,000 to $33,000 depending on how high my positive mood was.

Carefully observe the image below for illustration
Image source: https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
Archive: https://archive.ph/mzgpL

I think that's what I remember. Somebody quickly put up a site with bids and asks for GOX coins (payable in real BTC).

As the time passed and the hopes that GOX would be back got diminished, the prices for the GOX coins decreased further and further.
I think they started out with about 80% of the real BTC value.

I still regret a bit not selling my password there for real Bitcoin, at that time.
But in these years the coins I had on GOX weren't even worth 1k$. And who knew that we would do a 100x and more in a few years...

This is an exact Michael Saylor quote... word for word !!     You didn't contribute anything yourself.

And you didn't even give the source you took it from.

Here is the interview
https://twitter.com/DocumentingBTC/status/1530569144084705280?cxt=HHwWgMC9ld-h1r0qAAAA


Fucking merit-whoring noobs

Bitcoin derivatives and fractional reserve not nearly as massive as the global fiat debt-based financial system.

Also Bitcoin hard 21M cap, compared to infinite money go brrr financial system.

If another black swan like Covid happens again, you will easily see another 10x again in bitcoin's price without, as you say, exchanges, pegs, and the dollar collapsing.

Also, your last sentence is completely full of shit.

You trolling bro? I smell troll.

I agree those facts do seem problematic for the DOWNity projections.


MTGOX was having issues in 2011 regarding questions about their ability to stay solvent from the various hacks that they were experiencing..

And, prior to GOX shutting down in February 2014, there were ONLY few folks able to move any coins off of the exchange.

The FUD about GOX continued right from it's 2014 closing - yet I would imagine there were not really any concerns about dumping coins onto the market until at least 2015.. but then those feelings seem to have lapsed somewhat until early 2018 when the rumors (later admitted to be true) started surfacing that the trustee had been selling BTC during that early 2018 correction and that he might have caused the BTC price to come down to $6k on that first February 2018 correction..
In any event, your assertion that the dumping of GOX coins have many fallen  times been attributed to exaggerated single cause explanations regarding to what is happening or will be happening with the BTC price.


From the context it seems that you are referring to "crypto" in terms of non-bitcoin, and even if you are wanting a batslappening, we know that some of our current shitcoin purgenings might well end up contributing to some of that value flowing back into BTC, and really you seem to be describing that we could be experiencing some BTC price dynamics similar to the April to June 2019 BTC pumpening --- and it would be difficult to argue against that kind of current purgenings of shitcoins and to end up seeing some of that value flowing into bitcoin.. perhaps? perhaps?


Well.. in essence, it is difficult to blame those using the MTGOX services for how their situation ended up.  There were not a lot of options in the very beginning of GOX - such as 2010/2011.. and even if more exchanges were opening up, GOX had the appearance of the price / liquidity leader (even this thread referenced the GoX price in early 2013), and so after Gox closed in February 2014, we had several arguments in this thread regarding which exchange(s) should be used as our price and BTC dynamics reference points.

Your point that some folks were greedy was partially valid, but I doubt that we should either blame them or consider that they might not even had been acting somewhat reasonably with the context immediately before the MTGOX's closure.. In essence it took a while to figure out that coins/dollars were going in, but they largely were not coming back out.. while at the same time, there were some successful withdrawals a and also assertions (even from then credible persons like Roger Ver) proclaiming that GOX was completely solvent and there was no need to worry about the SAFUness status of the funds.. (am I mixing metaphores?... hahahahah).



Wow...

Holy fucking shit.

Macadonian points out a way to attempt to view the world positively which also points to a possible way to carve out benefits in a world with issues...

You, elliottflz65, figured out a way to complain that we are not there yet.

Even with bitcoin, there are probably going to continue to exist a lot of unfairnesses and injustices in the world, so each of us surely have choices regarding both how we are going to perceive the world and also if we are going to attempt to take some actions to put us on a path that has better chances to NOT get fucked as much.. if that is even possible.

It seems to me that bitcoin provides way more hope .. even if "we might not be there," yet. 

I have no problem to try  to engage in some actions to try to fix injustices in the world, yet it seems to me that taking a position in bitcoin is going to at least provide some of us (who are able to identify some positive aspects in bitcoin) to be able to at least attempt to arm ourselves with resources and tools - otherwise, what are we going to do?  just complain?  jump off a bridge? or engage in some kind of a hate act towards others because we feel fucked?  Seems that it would be a better course forward to attempt to identify ways to exist, have options and maybe to be able to contribute in some kinds of ways.. rather than just whining that there are injustices in the world.. a world that is likely going to always retain some injustices, even if we might achieve some kumbaya improvements through our ability to see bitcoin and to potentially be able to participate in bitcoin.. since we are still lucky enough to be alive (some folks with more energy and fewer disabilities than others), and that seems to have been the point that Macadonian was making.


Yes there was a cite in which you could bet on getting your coins back or not (sell them to someone else for 1/5 the BTC price and of course some variance), and that shit really ended up imploding once it became clear that Gox was not going to open back up and it became clear that the proposition for the Gox recovery cite had become clear in regards to GOX was not opening back up.


I try.



Good luck with your bet against bitcoin.. you are likely going to need it.

I imagine that you have already accounted for bitcoin being a bearer instrument, and it is much easier to take possession of bitcoin as compared with other assets, including gold.

Sure, the fucktwat financial manipulators are both going to try to manipulate bitcoin into the ground, and some of them are actually going to believe that they can do it.

Time will tell if the manipulators are going to be as successful as you (DieJohnny)  presume them capable of being.

Explanation

I think this is simply trying to provide excuses for current price action. Although I hate to admit it, BTC has been highly correlated to stocks "risk assets" with have fallen dramatically this year.

Maybe I'm not looking in the right places, but I'm also not seeing much high long leverage right now, but more of a balance:

Longs vs Shorts:. https://www.coinglass.com/LongShortRatio
Liquidiation Data:. https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData
Futures: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/crypto-markets/futures

If anything, it seems that there is relatively low leverage right now, with futures volume currently at summer 2021 levels for example (<$2b as opposed to >$4b 6 months ago). Many positions already got liquidated earlier in the month, predominantly longs after breaking $30K but many shorts as well after the bounce from $25K level. Most won't want to short in oversold conditions, others don't want to long without confirmation of a low.

As for ETH locked in 2.0, I find it highly irrelevant, many of those longer term investors will eye up the opportunity to rotate back into Bitcoin I imagine, anticipating BTC to recover much faster than any altcoins (which has always been the case so far). While MtGox coins that may be released later this year, or in 2024, sure it could spook some investors, but this has been the case for over a year already. Yawn.


I agree that $28K is looking exhausted, even if bears are losing momentum after 9 weeks of selling. So re-testing $26K does "look" relatively likely at this point. But this can go either way based on current leverage data. Dropping below $28K would liquidate longs and likely re-test mid $20Ks, but moving above $30K-32K would otherwise liquidate shorts, pushing prices back into the mid $30Ks. Even if we are admittedly closer to breaking down than bouncing back to the upside. But I do agree it'd be healthy to build support at such oversold levels if that happens, better to drop asap than later with price no longer oversold.

It's the sort of "coin flip" scenario that unless you are trying to trade a risky break-out in either direction, then you'd likely be better off in both short & long positions with high leverage and simply trade the volatility instead. Given how degenerate the strategy of being both long and short with high enough leverage to make it worthwhile is, I'm not surprised there's low leverage in the market right now, due to lack of oppounrtity.

The on-chain data also suggests that 6-12 month holders who dumped 50% of their bags over the past 6 months are close to running out of Bitcoin to sell. Meanwhile, the 1 year+ holders (in particular 1-2 year holders) seem completely unphased by the drop from $69K. Notably the 6-12 months holders have now either dumped or become 1+ year holders since 6 months ago, even after buying in the mid $30K range. Hence why if not obvious the 6-12 month hodlers have dropped from 20% to 10%, while the 1 year hodlers have risen from 10% to 20%. Half of them dumped, the other half held basically, price dropped in half.

For reference sake, the volume data shows that 1-2 year hodlers predominantly bought at $10K as opposed to $30K or $60K (May 2020 - May 2021). So price will probably need to drop below $20K to shake these strong hands out the market. Returning to $25K or the 200 Week MA likely won't achieve much. After all, most bought BTC post-havling in the $10K-12K range, I imagine for the long-term as well.

https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/hodl-waves/
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/1-year-hodl-wave/

The site was probably www.bitcoinbuilder.com

dunno bout that but peeps were offering to buy peoples mtgox accounts after it was shut down for like 10% (or whatever) of the accounts btc value.

In the whole market right now there's no simple place to hide , all the indexes are in the bear market territory, bonds not to represent a safe refuse because they're currency derivatives, stocks have to grow their cash follow faster than the information rate ,
but if zoom out two years since the beginning of the COVID-19, you will see the
US money supply increase 36% ,
Gold is up 7% and
S&P indexes is up 29%
NASDAQ is only up 19%
While Bitcoin is up 229% so if you can stomach the volatility and take the long term view of BTC you've got a safe heaven there


https://youtu.be/AEmsrs4g1dk

Gold is clearly a manipulated asset. There is zero possibility that USA money printing wouldn't directly impact gold prices, therefore, Gold is suppressed. Gold price suppression is accomplished with the use of derivatives and fractional reserve sellers. All derivatives and fractional reserves have one purpose only and that is to be a lever for large actors to control the price.

Bitcoin has both derivatives and fractional reserve selling at a massive scale. The exponential growth of Bitcoin was doomed roughly 3 years ago. Yes there may be a 10x again, but only if exchanges fail, pegs fail and the dollar collapses. Bitcoin is now in big-boy territory and the establishment is not going to surrender. Bitcoin's strength of decentralization is also its weakness, there is nothing to stop bad actors from corrupting the entire ecosystem.

Morgan Stanley's $500 Million Microstrategy Bet a "No-Brainer," According to Expert
https://cryptobriefing.com/morgan-stanley-500-million-microstrategy-bet-expert/

wtf is that monstrosity. This is what makes me lose faith in humanity

this is why btc still is seen by many people as fake money because this is the sort of brain power they have....buying that shit

Explanation

JJG, you think so? Lol

This is why you earned the title "Wordy Man" 

"Defeat is not the end
of Japan. In the future
we will still be the
strongest nation"
-Emperor Hirohito

75 years and counting:



You can’t beat Japanese to this.

Explanation

It looks like $30,265 or higher will make this week's candle green.. and that is about 10.5 hours from the time of this post... Only about $900 - currently... clearly within reach.. Yet? 

I am not sure if it really matters either way.. especially if the BTC price is within a $1k to $2k range of it, no?    But on the other hand, as I type this post I am starting to speculate that if the BTC price were to be $2k to the upside, that would make a difference in terms of making many of us "bag holders" feel MOAR better, no?


I had been thinking about these leveraged longs recently, and surely they seem to be an obstacle towards the BTC price going up, but I am starting to consider that they still might not be a deal-breaker...   There could be so much money to make in terms of the various fuck twats who are playing the futures game, that the BTC price could end up recking those shorting fuckers prior to recking the longs..   

My point remains that there is no guarantee, even if you are putting so much emphasis upon DOWNity in your various recent posts.. as if it were a certainty.. or as if you were wishing for the predictions in your post to come true.. as if you may well be a bit desperate yourself rather than really attempting to grapple with the ongoing possibility that the price is able to break in either direction, even when it appears stacked to break down, it could well  still end up doing the opposite of what you believe it is going to do. Would that be a first in bitcoinlandia?  or not?

It's been so long, but wasn't there a website where you could even trade coins trapped in GOX after they started to shut down?

I am still having some difficulties with the ways that you are phrasing some of this.  I also feel that I am starting to get a wee bit overly repetitive...Some repetition is expected.

First, level of confidence. I doubt that many of us consider bitcoin's UPwards price performance as any kind of guarantee that it will happen.. even if we have decently high levels of confidence that bitcoin is amongst the bests of asymmetric bets to the upside.

Second how others feel.  I doubt that the gist of the message would be that other people think that you are dumb, but there likely is some concerns regarding how you had been expressing your level of confidence in such a way that you were considering yourself to have had entered bitcoin at a good price.. which for sure, seems to be a correct consideration (that you in fact had entered BTC at an already good price).. but even if you entered at a great place, you should not have expected that you would have been (or should have been) guaranteed to ONLY get upside.. but still you had made a good entry, even if the BTC price ended up coming back down to prices that were lower than your entry point... so in some sense, others might be considering that you are ONLY whining for the sake of whining be cause you made a pretty good entry point, and even that your entry point and way of playing the whole matter, so far is much better than what they had done.. so there would be frustration regarding why you should be complaining about such a thing..

Third what others say:  It's likely best to attempt to NOT get emotional regarding what others say about you (especially true on the interwebs), and you gather whatever information (if any) from what they say, but put it into perspective that almost anything people say is going to lack tailoring to both your actual individual financial and psychological circumstances.. even if we might account for some of your representations of those financial and psychological circumstances.  Regarding psychological circumstances, we may also expect that you need to attempt to get a grasp on those matters yourself because there is ONLY so much help that any of us can do in terms of figuring out the balance - so in that regard, there may well be seeming insensitivities towards trying to figure out or to balance your psychological circumstances.. which are surely relevant, yet you are ultimately the judge regarding how to balance those kinds of matters in a way that you believe is fitting for you.

For example, right when I am writing this post, I am a bit preoccupied with another topic in the real world.. so my attention is not very focused, but I am still attempting to respond, and so when I am writing I may well have forgotten what I had already written in previous posts (and in this post), whether I expressed it very well and I might not even be able to remember what you said previously.  Plus the feeling of repetition and not being able to recall if I already said that, and if there might be a better way of saying it... which ultimately leads to some lack of clarity in either what was written or what was meant.