Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3648. (Read 26729426 times)
May 20, 2022, 05:03:27 PM
May 20, 2022, 04:09:29 PM
OT: The next "plandemic" is likely underway. Complete with social distancing, lockdowns, and masks...again.
I'll just leave this here, check out page 10-12:
https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf
Also, all of this:
https://www.google.com/search?q=monkeypox+2022&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjYo_3Xqu73AhUIk2oFHdEZCLoQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1707&bih=847&dpr=1.5
I'll just leave this here, check out page 10-12:
https://www.nti.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/NTI_Paper_BIO-TTX_Final.pdf
Also, all of this:
https://www.google.com/search?q=monkeypox+2022&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjYo_3Xqu73AhUIk2oFHdEZCLoQ_AUoAXoECAIQAw&biw=1707&bih=847&dpr=1.5
Well there it is in black and white. They called the virus by name...
...and within a week of the actual date!
I'm going to look ahead in the document to find out when the market crash is going to happen so I can be ahead of the curve this time.
May 20, 2022, 04:04:59 PM
May 20, 2022, 03:28:01 PM
Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...
meh
i have buys sprinkled every 2K or so down to (currently) 24k or so. i never try to catch the bottom exactly i just slurp sats here and there on the downslide until the price moves up decently (say 4 or 5k maybe) then i figure that was the local bottom for that period and buy with whatever dry powder i have left for this period. reset every few months or as cashflow allows.
its not based in any ta or anything its just my lazy ass way of doing it. sometimes works sometimes not lol
May 20, 2022, 03:24:47 PM
The question is why do you need to know if the bottom is in?
To either prepare for more pain or only for some boring months.
But yeah, nobody is able to answer the question definitively, so it's just a guessing game anyways.
May 20, 2022, 03:13:54 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.
I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time.
I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go.
AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.
Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)
I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...
Probably not... but I hope he's right
Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.
I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.
Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...
The question is why do you need to know if the bottom is in? If you want to buy - buy. Missing the bottom by a couple of grand is not a big deal. Zoom out for a bigger picture. If you want to sell - hodl. Simple as that.
May 20, 2022, 03:11:59 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.
I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time.
I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go.
AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.
Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)
I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...
Probably not... but I hope he's right
Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.
I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.
Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...
Sometimes it really does not matter. In Jan 2015 the bottom was at $178 or so, but you could have bought it about 7 mo later at $210 with the bull truly starting around late September 2015. That was an almost perfect setup for DCAing for about 8 mo.
BTW, huge reversal in SP500 (from EXACTLY -20%), Dow, etc today. Maybe the bounce would start sooner than later.
May 20, 2022, 03:03:28 PM
May 20, 2022, 03:02:49 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.
I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time.
I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go.
AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.
Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)
I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...
Probably not... but I hope he's right
Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.
I'm not versed in trading lingo, but generally a bear market is defined by falling prices, no?
So when the bottom is in, you could argue that it's the end of a bear market.
Problem is how to know, if the bottom is really in...
May 20, 2022, 02:47:06 PM
Bull is getting Ready 😁..
Some finishing Touches are left over
This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl
Some finishing Touches are left over
This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl
Did you do the work? If so it is nice work.
May 20, 2022, 02:37:10 PM
Bull is getting Ready 😁..
Some finishing Touches are left over
This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl
Some finishing Touches are left over
This Bull will be Long lasting most rare and perfect piece ever sceen
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1045685833021189?fs=e&s=cl
May 20, 2022, 02:03:27 PM
May 20, 2022, 01:04:59 PM
May 20, 2022, 12:47:04 PM
May 20, 2022, 12:45:55 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.
I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time.
I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go.
AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.
Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)
I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...
Probably not... but I hope he's right
Bottom sure, but with the exception of 1 of those "bottoms" they all go sideways for several months before heading into a bull cycle. The idea that because the price levels out that it is suddenly the end of the bear market is ridiculous.
May 20, 2022, 12:42:51 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph?
It is a nice chart/prediction, but it should be taken with a grain of salt..we could be there already (or were at 26.7K) or the bottom could be 20-30% lower. Not predicting it, but just saying that the graph allows for it (if 14M RSI goes to the same number as previously achieved in Dec 2018).
When to buy? If you have cash, maybe DCA already, but if you already have a nice position, then you can simply hodl here.
May 20, 2022, 12:33:28 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late
FTFY
May 20, 2022, 12:31:17 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
I think PlanB has showed some very interesting and often accurate analysis. I do agree that his rise to mythical predictor status was, like MasterLuc WAAAAAY overblown. But so is the way everyone now treats him like he is some giant failure has been.
I remember the first interview I heard him on he said, something like "This model is amazing and super accurate over the last xyz period, but all models are only accurate until they break." And I think he often said that over time.
I would also point out that his model has not broken yet. We really need more of this cycles time behind us to really make that conclusion. It seems HIGHLY likely that it will have failed during this cycle... but there are paths forward where it still retains it's accuracy. They just become less and less likely the further we go.
AND to add some nuance I have always thought his model was quite 1 dimensional, and more about backfilling accuracy than something reliable for the future. All the acolytes are the ones responsible for the worship of this model. I always thought it was a kind of silly thing.
Now his 100k by December proclamation. There he was 100% wrong. And that was a hubristic mess, that prediction. I wanted it to be true, as we all did, but that is just silly. Some of the other silly predictions were even worse. I still remember Matt Odell getting super drunk and ceiling "Bitcoin T.I.N.A." a bear. But Tina said he did not think BTC was going to go way up, but that it would probably pull back and go up to 6 digits later. His prediction in that regard has been right so far. (Odell irritates me with his "stay humble" bit. His definition of humble is not risking money on alts. My definition is speaking to others with respect in part, which he never really does)
I honestly think that the right combination of fundamental evens like the ES conference, and an eventual decoupling of BTC from Nasdaq will drive the next bull. The question is WHEN does it go... PlanB is a stupid bull like me, and his prediction that "the bear market is almost over" is fairly bold. And if it IS true he *could* also still get the last laugh for the s2f model...
Probably not... but I hope he's right
You are right.
I just have a little fun, because he has moved his goal post quite a few times.
And also because every cycle we have these TA guys, who happen to be right a few times come out of the woodwork and get treated like stars..
In addition to that I suffer from hurt feelings, because I really want(ed) his prediction to come true as well
But seriously, listening to his interviews, I think he is a very level-headed and experienced guy.
May 20, 2022, 12:24:36 PM
New predictions from Masterluc PlanB...
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
"The good news: bear market is almost over."
https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1527659621179072517?cxt=HHwWioCxoZyVq7MqAAAA
So, he's trying to say the cycles are getting shorter? We are somewhere in late 2019 now according to that graph?
May 20, 2022, 12:19:15 PM
The S&P 500 is now at the same price level as it was on 01/03/2021.
They managed to wipe out an entire years' worth of stonk market gains in just 4.5 months.
They managed to wipe out an entire years' worth of stonk market gains in just 4.5 months.
That's almost nothing, really.
Nikkei went 20 years backwards (over 14 years of slow declines; from 39K to 8K), then was in a 10 year flat (oscillating between 8K and 18K).
Now in a bull since 2012 (8K to 26.7K).
Imagine a 14 year long bear market. It probably won't be so long since US likes to "take" their recessions fast and furious, but the economy as a whole would need to be restructured because of the end of globalization (or a partial end?) during a period of probably high persistent inflation.
Could it take 5-10 years? Sure.
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