Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3676. (Read 26731221 times)

Explanation

unlikely to immediately derp, but who knows.
A lot of money would be riding that up and/or down for sure.
If it crashes, POW coins (and btc being the largest by far) would actually benefit, so i don't see a correlation there.

re Moon-I was observing it by both the naked eyes and a small telescope.
This one was fairly low on the horizon, so easier to see than the prior one when it was almost up almost vertically in my location.
The most interesting parts are when it is only partially done (partial eclipse; looks like a piece is missing), then, of course the full eclipse stage when it was brown-purplish and another partial.
Complete was quite long, actually, i was surprised at that.

Guys they still have 313 BTC…. Let’s take them all!!

Homemade panorama

at 25%


at 100%
https://i.imgur.com/tFlQwxz.jpg

Lots of cracks

If you think luna was bad wait till eth self destructs with the switch to pos.



as for the red moon. I watch it cover and then said fuck it and did not stay up to see the uncovering.

Have to say it look cool when it was basically all covered in a red shadow..

or as my flat earth buds say a tick of projection.

I saw it last night too... it was fully covered at least an hour and a half. maybe even a bit longer...

I had a really great view from my location at the beginning of the eclipse, while it was still starting to cover it, and then about half way through I had to commute from one location to another.. and my view was not so good within the commute or even by the time i got to my new destination, even though by the time I arrived at my new destination, I  could see (verify) that the eclipse was finishing (coming out on the other side).


You deserve a batslappening for that post, Hueristic.

You realize that your cited May 2021 article is outdatted by more than 3 months because in early February, the US DOJ announced that they caught the hacker(s) and recovered about 94k of those bitcoin.

https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/two-arrested-alleged-conspiracy-launder-45-billion-stolen-cryptocurrency

Yeah, the US DOJ might not be telling the truth.. and there might be some other shenanigans going on, but it still seems that events occurring on or after February 2022 need to be accounted for in terms of possible meaningful discussions of various fall outs of that particular 2016 Bitfinex hack.

Explanation

True. Indicators show a bear.

And you are also right with the premature ejaculation and the powerless second run, which lead to a lack of the usual exponential spike.
That's the reason I wondered, if some bearish expectations like 10k-20k will ever be fulfilled.

I could also imagine a cycle in which we continue to bounce around in a 25k-70k channel for the next two years, essentially forming a huge kind of bull flag until the next halving.  

We have been in a bear market (at least as far as almost all on chain params are concerned) since April 2021.
It is obvious to me that Nov-Dec 2021 nominal peak was a simple reactionary move to the 'premature' bull termination caused by the chinese.
yes, we should have moved to a 'regular' peak of probably at least 100-120K by June-Sept 2021 if not for that abrupt halt, then we tried to resume and, basically, failed (made a double top, though).
People (myself included) were hoping for a higher second top, but it did not really happen in the same way as in 2013. The momentum was weak.

Now, we are fast-declining from the 35-40K flat similarly to 2018.
My hope is that since we did not spike exponentially in this cycle, it would mean that we drop 60% instead of usual 80% or more, but nobody said that it is a law.
BTC already done about 62% decline at 25.5, which is close to one of Fib numbers, accidentally.
70% would be 20.4K.

Having said that, the bounce should come sooner or later (maybe to 35-40K).
We already declined 7 wk straight (new all time record) thanks to luna shenanigans.

Explanation

"Technically" the last time I checked there are more than 10 more days before either 1) we reach the end of the month and/or 2) the last time that we had touched upon $25k - (which was May 12th - using UTC time).


For sure, I have difficulties considering that Bezos has much if any concern for what might or might not be good for the poorest of society...even though surely there can be some ambiguity in regards to the extent to which the delivery of inexpensive (and competitively-priced) items might not also indirectly benefit down-trodden sodds within the society.


Just because we are in a bear market does not mean that we necessarily expect BTC prices to go down or have to go down. 

So even with your ongoing seeming desires to act as a contrarian, you might be attributing too much in the attempts that any of us here are looking at what is actually happening and attempting to figure out where we might be at...

Sure, the BTC price might reverse and strongly bounce back over $35k and just keep moving UPpity from there, but it seems that those kinds of expectations are devolving into fantasylandia rather than even appreciating more likely scenarios.

Just like the vast majority of active WO thread participants are likely HODLing a decent amount of BTC, or ongoingly accumulating BTC, or mostly leaning towards being long BTC, many of us want and prefer the BTC price to go up rather than down.. but expecting something like a bounce back above the 100-week moving average without some kind of building of support first seems a wee bit of pie in the sky to me.. .. even though we know anything is possible.. and historically sometimes we have just seen some kind of a short-term short squeeze with a 12 hour or 36 hour period of exponential UPpity (something like a 70% UPpity candle), we should not even be considering those kinds of possible scenarios as base cases, even though they can happen at any time... and they sometimes do happen.. they just are not something that any of us can count on happening - even though there is nothing wrong with being prepared for those things to happen (which is part of the reason that we should always be prepared for UP, even if everyone and their dog is expecting down... which may be part of the point that you were wanting to make).

Since everyone is calling a bear market, I wonder if the badger will disappoint them in the same way it disappointed the 100k laser eyes bull crowd last year.

One thing I've learned over the years is that BTC rarely goes along with the crowd's expectation.

Nah man, it was drader and bfx-lnd0 that were being asshole sinks. We cool.

I find this explanation a bit confusing, even though I understand that guys can start from all kinds of place in terms of both their finances and their view of bitcoin as compared with other assets (whether referring to other crypto currencies or other traditional asset classes).

From my perspective, it seems to me that even though you have been into bitcoin since 2013, you still seem to have quite a bit of foggy or muddled thoughts in regards to how to go about the matter, and I am not meaning this as any kind of personal attack, but we are in a public thread, so I am trying to respond to you in a way that provides another perspective from the way that you framed the matter.. even though there is no real shortage of either my views or framing of the matter - but I do still believe that your framing raises quite a few concerns in regards to what I would categorize as muddy thinking (even though I concede that I am just one person so you or anyone else can surely take any of my views with a large grain of salt or tell me to go fuck off.. but it is still not going to stop me from spouting them out - as many folks who are active in this thread have already likely realized through the years).

First: I have no problem with the idea of attempting to somewhat stay focused on going through initial stages of building an investment portfolio by limiting the number assets contained in such portfolio until it grows to a certain size that would thereafter cause some level of diversification to make more sense once the investment portfolio has gotten to a certain size.. maybe in the west we might consider the size of such portfolio to need to be something liek $30k to $50k before there is any need to really diversify, and maybe in less developed locations, getting up to $10k or even less might be enough justification to start to diversify.. some of the framing regarding how much concentration is reasonably tolerable will also depend on the cost of living of the area ... and surely we use dollars as our reference in this thread - even though there might be some other ways of measuring such value outside of just saying 1 BTC = 1 BTC , which to me hardly seems to make any sense unless we are attempting to figure out some way of measuring it... whether present value or even some future value.. .including passing down to heirs (even though that is seeming a bit of a stretch of the more tangible in terms of what we should be attempting to focus on when talking about whether we can even get through some BTC accumulation and maintenance goals for our own perspectives while we are still living and possibly able to meaningfully enjoy at some point).

By the way, even though you have been into BTC since 2013 - it seems to me that you are not even getting into an area of considering your BTC holdings beyond nearly pure accumulation.  I cannot really know your situation beyond what you are saying, and at the same time, it may not even matter too much - except that sometimes it may appear that my various responses are presuming too much about your particular circumstances, and that surely is not my intention to presume too much but instead to attempt to address some of the framing principles (or contrary framing principles) that your post seems to be raising.

Second: I understand that I might have been a bit loosey goosey with some of my previous discussion of the matter of possible diversification, but it seems to me that the very first peg in considering how to begin to diversify is to be figuring out allocation between BTC and dollars. 

Of course some folks come into BTC and already own some other traditional investments that might include property, equities and perhaps some PMs, too (I remember some of your previous posts in which you do have some of this, including but maybe not limited to property - even though I am not going to presume that you aesma ONLY have BTC and USD.. ,or that you have not gotten any start into the second peg).. so how any of us might approach the second peg of diversification would be both accounting for how many other traditional assets/investments you already have and that could affect how much you might feel that you need to establish (o0r increase) your base in some of the traditional assets which can help you both in terms of hedging volatility but also having a place to live and/or just providing you with more options and even possible more cover as compared with someone who might not want to get past the 1st peg of diversifcation that is ONLY in dollars and BTC.

Third: The third peg in diversification is one that I consider to be almost completely unnecessary to establish, unless you are just using your involvement in such as a possible way to complement your earning of BTC and/or dollars and that is getting involved in shitcoins or related projects.  Once you have identified Bitcoin in the leader in this area of industry, then perhaps the main meaningful or possible complementary diversifications would be to attempt to make sure that any ancillary investments of time and/or money that you are making relate to building upon bitcoin in some kind of somewhat articulable way that is beyond making shit up in order to get involved in some knowing scam or smoke and mirror project(s).  Of course, it is within your discretion regarding how much time/money to put into various ancillary projects and to figure out the extent to which they might sufficiently/adequately relate to bitcoin... and if you at least are not able to access their relation to bitcoin then at least attempt to access that they are not necessarily going to hurt you in terms of how you are directing your money and your time.


To me, this seems like foggy and distracted thinking - not only in terms of the topic of this thread, but also just considering how much you might be wanting to place any value into shitcoins - time and/or money even if you calculate that you are earning more BTC by employing your resources in that way.


I don't have any real problems in terms of setting and maintaining goals that focus on the number of BTC that you would like to achieve, but I still surmise that you are measuring those BTC levels based on either present purchasing power value or future purchasing power value.

I will also surmise that you have some timeline considerations in regards to when you would like to reach some of your goals.. and of course, if we are trying to figure out both timeline and quantity of BTC that we would like to achieve, then there are likely to be a decent number of uncertainties, and in several senses, there are also ways to attempt to be as aggressive as we feel that we are able to be without either putting very much of our BTC principle at risk and also while attempting to keep ourselves in a sufficiently strong position that we have the projection of our expenses accounted for and we have also an adequately sized emergency fund that is going to protect us from having to sell BTC at a time that is anything other than our complete voluntary (rather than rationalized) choice regarding when to sell and how much to sell  (if we do end up selling some BTC - in some kind of unscheduled rather than previously scheduled kind of a way).



Fair enough at least in regards to your holding for the purpose of trading may well not matter too much between whether you trade/hold USDC or USDT.. or maybe some other dollar-pegged coins.  Some exchanges have a lot of dollar pegged options and others have fewer dollar pegged options - even though sometimes it could end up taking a long time to work out various trades, and from my experience, both sides of the trade end up potentially building up on the exchange.. and another issue would be that some guys want to keep some (just in case) fiat on exchanges and even low ball orders, and so sometimes some of the dollar-pegged asset or trading pair could end up adding up to quite a bit of value being held on one or more exchanges.

I am not sure how much that I want to say about my own personal circumstances, but there was a time that I had quite a bit of higher percentages of my overall BTC portfolio value (including what I had considered to be the dollar or dollar pegged value) on various exchanges, and sometimes the price appreciation of BTC had caused that overall value to go to very high levels and also maybe a bit of failure to actively manage had contributed to my overall portfolio value going to levels that were likely beyond 30% of my total BTC holdings (including allocated dollars).. These days, I estimate that I have somewhere in the ballpark of 9% of my total investment portfolio value on various exchanges.. so perhaps we are thinking about the risk of keeping a certain level of value on exchanges similarly in terms that we are willing to allow for some of that risk - and for me, it surely is a smaller overall percentage as compared to where I had been in the past.


It seems to me that frequently richer people are going to trend towards taking less risk with the amount of value that they have accumulated - especially if it has taken them a decent amount of time to accumulate such value.

Of course there are exceptions in regards to some people (even rich folks) who engage in such seemingly unwarranted (and perhaps even overly greedy) ways of taking chances with their wealth. 

Even with BTC, many of us longer time HODLers have figured out a variety of ways that we are likely able to keep more value in BTC while still reasonably attempting to protect our lil selfies from likely ongoing volatility - and maybe without even getting too worried, even if BTC prices might drop stupendously and on paper we are losing actual wealth, but maybe just having a certain level of confidence that as long as our timeline is long enough.. such as 4 years or longer, then it is quite likely that even some of the short term loss of value will work itself out to our benefit and we do not need to engage in conduct that might end up causing us to be worse off because we were trying to play the short term in a kind of greedy way rather than just allowing the longer term to play itself out..

Ah... I might need to move a little pile of corn over to the nodes to reciprocate...  All those transactions will eventually clear...  It's down like 30% from the weekend.  -eidt- wait no... it's down like 65%...  My mempook is only like 30 blocks deep right now...

Except for edge cases like closing out channels with unbalanced liquidity. eg: I open a wumbo channel that gets totally drained down to 100k sats, I close the channel, and I only get back 100k sats until I wind down the entire node - to the best of my understanding.

Very VERY irritating.

I have about 0.3 BTC in a "quantum state" right now, and am hesitant to load up more liquidity to make up for the "shortfall"

The Lightning Network really pisses me off, but LNDg 1.1.1 being included in Umbrel now makes me a happier camper.

For now.

Autofees FTW.

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I don't know why I didn't think of this. Feeling kinda more retarded than usual ATM. Thanks for the great tip, brother.

That's why I usually pay a fraction more than 1 sat/vbyte. 1.1 would have been enough to confirm a day and a half ago.

Explanation

Fucking Lightning channel waiting to open for almost 3 days now at 1sat/vb. Don't feel like bumping the fee for

Damnit.

I would also be interested to know why the Tard Held Shitcoins?