Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3677. (Read 26731210 times)

Ben Cowen...not just about bitcoin..his numbers hurt my 'inner child'  
linking from the point he starts talking about btc specifically:
https://youtu.be/S-tKFGSrDYI?t=918

I think you may not be thinking enough levels deep.  The very first email response to Satoshi's announcemnet laid out the problem immediately:


A couple years later Hal Finney made a similar point:


Bitcoin itself cannot scale to have every single financial transaction in the world be broadcast to everyone and included in the block chain.

That's the crux.  That is the point of the blocksize wars.  And there has been disagreement here forever.  It can be argued that Satoshi himself even seemed to intend for Bitcoin to scale "on chain".  But we have realized over time that this is not possible.  You cannot have a broadcast network broadcasting 10,000 TPS to a immutable ledger without centralizing.

Therefore... IF we scale to where the whole world is using Bitcoin as the foundation of a payment system, and the blocksize remains where it is now then block space is going to become EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE.  Because there will be a huge demand for base layer transactions. Put another way, if lightning (and other layer two systems) get a large amount of traffic then the node operators are going to have to pay the miners to settle channel balances.  And the miners will be setting those fees. 

In fact, if we are going to keep blocks small the ONLY way bitcoin survives is for base layer fees to go up to replace enough of the subsidy that mining stays worth it.  In that sense layer 2 does not "steal income from miners" it ENABLES it.  If we can only have 3,500 transactions a block max, then we will need to see fees in the ~$200 range to replace the current subsidy.  And the only way to justify fees like that is to have a 2nd layer on which trivial transactions can take place and to use the base layer for settlement.  Lightinng will not have hurt the miners... it will have saved them.

And the argument that we should increase blocksize enough to handle all the transactions... well enough has been written on that.  And the reality is it would still be technically quite difficult to have that much traffic being broadcast to EVERY node each 10 minutes.

Not to mention the fact that 10m is not fast enough for small transactions.  Buying a car?  No problem we can sit for a while at the dealership.  Buying a bowl of Pho'.  Nope.  Takes too long.

So the puzzle now is how to use bitcoin in a trust minimized way on a second layer from which settlement can take place on the base. 

I also wonder if we might see the consensus emerge for increases to the block size.  Obviously this is a contentious topic and some believe we can never see it happen because of the code becoming ossified. But if that happens, though it will not turn Bitcoin into being able to do broadcast layer microtransactions, it WILL at least allow for more transactions, and therefore more total fees per block.  As tech advnaces I think it will not be too long before the chain and network could su stain a 3-20x increase in resource needs.

You are a miner.  How will enabling millions upon millions of transactions a day not increase demand for Layer 1 space?

Oh my, crazy times we're living in - JJG turning into a bear, proudhon predicts $70k soon (contrarian indicator) OMG we're in trouble boys!  

Explanation

Interesting.


Very, very interesting.

El Salvador President Nayib Bukele announced that 32 central banks and 12 financial authorities are meeting in the country to discuss Bitcoin.

To discuss planB latest musings, i have to say that I am in agreement that actual bull market peak was in April 2021.
There was a small increase in ATH in December, but it was basically a "reactionary" top with no strong momentum.
This means that cycles continue at a regular ~4 year interval, hopefully (maybe with some false starts as in 2019).

planB: https://twitter.com/100trillionUSD/status/1526129846723698688  (@Gachapin already posted the link, I just repost it to reference what I am talking about).

So tomorrow they can say “all we left with is just shit”.

Why didn’t they dump bnb and avax?

From $10k to $30k was the bull run. $30k and higher was the overshoot.

Sorry that you missed the gains bro?   🤷

Unfortunately for them their 80k BTC also couldn’t save LUNA

Reserve before crash: 


Reserves after crash:


https://twitter.com/lfg_org/status/1526126703046582272?s=21

So frequently while going through consolidation periods (and corrections), they seem like they are taking forever to play out.. and yeah, maybe we need to stop pondering 100x or even 50x or 20x.. even though 20x from here ($30k-ish - which would add up to $600k) seems more than doable to me... even though it could take 4-8 years to play out - and I don't even have any problem with 20x playing out in 8 years.. (even though I might no longer be alive because even the implications of the picture involves pondering various health implications with the passage of time.

There may well be some difficulties getting our momentum to revert back to UPpity since we have fallen below the 100-week moving average (which is currently at about $35k)... so getting above that first and foremost might help to establish if the bottom is in.. and then moving further above the 100-week moving average might allow us to consider whether we have gone back into possible UPpity mode... How long will these happenings take?

Remember our little correction between November 2018 and then our reversions to UPpity that happened around April 2019.. that was about a 5 month turn-around, which does not really seem too bad, upon retrospect.. but those felt like a long 5 months while we were going through the process of figuring out if the trend was going to revert to UP....

I hate to sound like a bear.... so maybe I can try to frame potential optimistic reversals that might happen as quickly as a month to play out, but that seems way too optimistic so in that regard, we know that the worser case scenarios for reversal could take longer than the 5 months we experienced in the playing out of that 2018/2019 situation.

By the way, about a month ago, I had noticed that the 200-week moving average was moving up around $30 per day, and now it seems to be moving up around $15 per day.. so for sure lower BTC prices does contribute towards that 200-week moving average moving up at a slower pace (even though it does ongoingly tend to move up since the BTC price does ongoing tend to trade above it - at least so far in our 8-ish plus years of BTC trading history that has established a 200-week moving average in the first place (there needs to be nearly 4 years of prior trading history, just to establish a 200-week moving average)).

If you count the transaction fee delta as a generation of value rather than simply saving on fee costs, then it is in a way, coin generation. So very much like staking. Except better staking, as you get your coins at the time of transaction.

Explanation

You forgot
3. LN node operators don't really make any money, they are doing it for fun.


Also, why do folks continue to ignore the Core Devs? Like they're never going to touch the code ever again over the next 100 years to make adjustments?

2140 AD ...

⚠️ Calculate at own risk hope so it won't be difficult.

when (if) btc is $500k+  usd and only nation states and huge multinational corporations can afford to get in on the base btc blockchain (because space) $10k fees could become common. after all fees are just the cost of doing business to corporations and governments. the cost is passed on the The Little People

us little peeps, who are just one of the great unwashed masses, will have to pay through the nose to get our paltry 100k usd txs on the chain.

Lightning works like staking, but there are two important differences:

• No coin generation.
• Actual usefulness. (Routing TX)

Edit:
Hahaha you edited your post before I could say that. But focus on the last last point now

The reality is it may be bad for btc and mining.

The reality we were whaling back in spring of 2021 over 68k big fees in block and miners were counting their soon to be riches.

The reality is LN got actived  more completely in spring of 2021 we have not had 1 btc fee blocks since that happened and BTC has pretty much crashed to a 30k level.

But that is short term let us wait and see if btc comes back.

If it does not than LN will have done a lot of harm to BTC

Most people do not understand what LN will do for or against miners since the time period of wide enacting is only about 1 year.

My gut is it is a terrible idea since that second layer (LN) is very much like staking but I simply do not know much about the world. I will wait and see if 1 btc fee blocks ever come back like they used to do.