Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3684. (Read 26731436 times)

Fair enough.

We should realize that USDT has been the leader in the "stable coin" space since about 2014 because when it first started no other similar project existed, but it has been under various kinds of informational and even direct attack of one of the institutions stealing its money (perhaps even the USGovt involved), regulatory attack (that resulted in a pretty BIG settlement), and it seems to me that USDT has remained pretty damned resilient through all of these matters, yet surely it is not likely to be as much of a rebellious project as it had been in the beginning so they have been forced into a certain amount of compliance and maybe even compromise that allowed them to come to a settlement with the NY state prosecution.. likely the Feds have some involvement too... but who knows? 

I would imagine that USDC and some of the other later copy cat stable coins started out with various kinds of US Govt blessings -including reporting requirements.. so don't be expecting hardly any privacy with that kind of a coin.. or even expectation that it might not get frozen... and surely, there can be questions regarding whether one project or another is solvent or not.. and you would think that the USDC has higher levels of solvency safeguards than something like the USDT that has a bit more of a renegade history.

I do understand that sometimes we might end up devolving into off-topicness when talking about some of these various stable coins, and they likely are not even necessarily long term holds for members but just ways to balance BTC versus USD exposures when trading for figuring out how much to allocate into BTC.. and whether some of the allocations might go up or down during BTC price moves - perhaps even with some guys wanting to ongoingly ensure that their BTC balance is going up, but once you get to a certain level of wealth (that might be measured in the dollar equivalencies even if a decent portion is held in BTC), then there might not be a need to continue to feel that your BTC amount has to keep going up on an ongoing basis. 

Guys are at different points in this journey, but they also have differing philosophies as well.  So, for example, Michael Saylor seems to have a philosophy to continue to increase his BTC holdings on an ongoing basis, and there are other guys who would consider that at a certain point, he should feel that he has enough BTC... so part of the reason that I am o.k. with the idea of making initial allocations into BTC that could range anywhere between 1% and 25%, and maybe in the early stages of investing it might not be any kind of problem to stay within an allocation that you have chosen within that range - but then there are certain points in time in which BTC prices do a kind of step up... and then all of a sudden your allocation into BTC might have gone up somewhere between 3x to 10x (as started in September 2020 whether measuring from a $3k to $6k base or a more conservative $10k base ), or 25x (as might be considered the overall BTC price move starting in 2013 that went up from a base of $10 more than 100x.. but then settled back down in the mid-$200s).. or 8x-12x (as might be considered the overall BTC price move starting in 2016 that went up from a base of $500-ish - or lower - and went up more than 40x.. but then settled back down in the $4k to $6k price arena).

Part of my point is that from time to time, the BTC does a kind of step up in price, that ends up positively affecting the amount of allocation that any mostly BTC HODLer has in his/her investment portfolio, and then s/he is faced with questions of both whether to reallocate, and if so how much to reallocate - and part of those considerations are going to be accounting for dollar value - or maybe whether a guys  might have philosophies to just keep accumulating BTC... To me, it seems that it is more practical to balance concerns, and surely at a certain point there would not necessarily be needs to keep building BTC amounts.. but I concede that guys have differing ways to balance their motives and what makes them comfortable.

Since the introduction of the derivates in BTCitcoin world a lot has changed. Before that it was enough to buy certain amount and the price increased and stayed for weeks and months. In the last 4-5 years may be thousands jumps were followed by an immediate drop to the previous level and in most cases below. This is the effect of the leverage >10x. Not only that, but leverage above 50x attracted the worst type of gamblers who lose all their fiat savings each month. It doesn't matter whether we are in a bull or bear market and what is the price - at the end of each month these gamblers build billions of high leverage longs on Binance and other exchanges. The real non leverage buying can't support the profit of them all, so a domino like effect liquidates all these longs. Of course, when the next big bull run starts they will not bring ithe price back for a long time and some of them will finally realize one successful trade. But it will be 0.00001% of their initial fiat savings. Whereas, the hodlers who DCA disregarding the price will enjoy another 10x increase of their last cycle average buying price in just few years.

So, there is no need to try to time the bottom of some local bear period. Here however lies some obvious obstacle to all these peeps who have bigger amount of fiat. Their reasoning is "if I enter now and the price falls, say 50%, I will be mad. Moreover, I'll have to wait several years to realize some profit. So it is better to wait to be certain that we are in a bull market and buy then. Or buy some "perspective" altcoins which are cheap now but will certainly go 10-100x up in few months." These peeps have very low IQ, because they don't see many obvious mistakes. First of all, for a gazillionth time, any altcoin is a shitcoin which can go to 0 and only the insiders profit from these pump and dump schemes. Second, is it so hard to divide the fiat savings in 2-3 or 4 parts and in case the price crashes after the first buying, make the next and so on? After all, BTCitcoin in all its bear cycles did on average 2-2.5 ~50% crashes in a row. This is so obvious and I will never cease to be amazed how mindrust who was 1:3 in favor of fiat savings panicked and sold at 4K. May be his belief in authorities and lack of self confidence/mind was the reason why he didn't plan for this and was caught by surprise. So, in case someone has a bigger amound of fiat and is hesitant what to do - he should disregard all beliefs and authorities and be prepared with fiat for at least 2  ~50% crashes in a row since the last ATH. Regarding the regular paycheck income - it is best to buy immediately as if he receives his salary in BTC.

You also can't grow food or raise livestock in the sand.

Exactly.  It is, and has been for a LONG TIME a hedge, not an "investment".

I think for sure we are ripe to see some sort of financial collapse.  There is a lot of nuance as to what the "Elites" are currently trying to do.  They are orchestrating this take down, while they give us our bread and circuses in Ukraine and dividing us to keep us going in circles.

And every now and then they tip their hand...

“We need to frame bitcoin globally because, you know… if there’s a loophole, that loophole will be used. Global cooperation is absolutely necessary. It could be initialized first at the G7, then at the G20. “

Loophole to/from what?  She was not talking about darknet markets, or taxes.

She was talking about a way out of the cattle call they have been planning for decades and are executing NOW.

In the end it really is a curse to be able to see what is happening but have no way to stop it, or even wake up a SINGLE ONE of the sleepers around us.  Ah well...  I have a decent chair to sit in for the watching.

About buying land, location matters, though. Nice land close to the beach in South Florida is worth millions, until it's under water and worth nothing. Apparently it's becoming difficult to insure beach properties.

Explanation

Having physical PMs (less that 5-10% of your investment portfolio) in one's possession should not be considered speculative plays at all, nor even expect to keep up with inflation (because the PM market is rigged by the Central Banks).

Physical PMs are simply a hedge or insurance against the entire global financial system melting down for good. It may never happen. But if it did, then yes in the short term, there will be chaos. There will be riots, looting, and violence. There will be shortages of food, supplies, other goods, medicines, etc. In the short term there will be FAR more to care or worry about than having gold or silver. Land would of course be useful in such a scenario.

However, during such an event, the Fed and the governments of the world will try to move quickly to re-establish a new financial system, and any new fiat system they create will be reset against Gold and Silver once again. Meaning that the fiat price of Gold and Silver will be reset overnight to 20X-30X or more of where it is today, possibly even higher. So it would be wise to have some anyway. If the financial collapse never happens in your lifetime, then pass it along to your offspring so that it might one day protect them.

The reason I say land is the riskiest is draconian governments can simply seize it.  And the dirtiest secret is they do not even have to.  They can also tax all your value out of it.

As to gold... Yeah. if we start mining asteroids... But until then it is one of the hardest monies we have ever known, and has a track record like no other.  I see it as a hedge against mad max scenarios.  Well not really.  Particularly silver would be better for those. But in the case the world economic system goes down the toilet gold will MOST DEFINITELY reflect that value.

We even have precedent for this.  Look at the price of gold in German Marks between 1919-1923. 

Even if world reserve currencies do not collapse as bad as that one did gold's stable price will protect a person's value.  Of course if an ounce of gold will be a very fine suit today, and we have a USD/Fiat collapse, then when gold is worth 50kUSD it may still only buy a fine suit.  But that is way better than the $2000.

Gold has really small upside compared to Bitcoin.  But it also has very little risk.  That is why I mention it along with real estate and Bitcoin.  But also when I say gold, I generally mean "and silver".  You can live on your land.  You can hedge against all kinds of bad scenarios with precious metals.  You can both SAVE and take advantage of the price rise of a bootstrapping asset with Bitcoin.

I am personally very satisfied with my extraordinarily lopsided distribution in these three assets.  I have enough land to live on.  I have enough Silver in case of nuclear war, and I have plenty of that other thing, whatever it was.

gold is a terrible 50 year hodl move.

more likely a terrible 20 year hodl move.

https://theprint.in/opinion/giant-asteroid-has-gold-worth-700-quintillion-but-it-wont-make-us-richer/260482/


silver = okay

land = okay

as for btc I still have mine.

here is some advice

dca some cash
dca some silver
dca some btc

and I won't mention

ltc/doge

as many do not like to read that here.

oh and remember dump all eth

The purpose of "stable"-coins is: To create a solution for subverting the interdiction of governments/banks to exchanges that they are not allowed to use fiat for non-KYC users.

But now KYC is mandatory on most exchanges.

So the use of things like USDT would not be justifiable. And the use of traditional fiat USD transaction would be more ideal. And it is also the problem that if you have 1000x places to buy BTCiTcoin or other crypto, then volume pressure might not be concentrated just into a single spot / point of interest. If a concentration of such magnitude would be present in just one spot of the world and only on one exchange then pressure of buying or selling would increased and not spread on all over every fake USD coin that is backed by nothing. At least for the fiat they had to prove their amounts in a bank account. Now they don't. It is a fake crypto copy. This is money diluted and washed trough those fake-coin-tolls thingies. It is not price discovery, it is manipulation.    

Only place that we can still use the "stable"-coins are the offline/online for merchants and ATM machines or decentralized exchanges.    

Saying: "The best time to buy is when there is blood in the streets."

Torque's translation: The best time to buy is when market participants have majorly deleveraged. Because at the low deleverage point, the market price is showing it is closer to fair value. Don't wait to buy when the market participants decide to leverage up 100X or 500X again during another bull run. The price will be much higher, but you won't know what the fair market value is.

Explanation

All those who are arrogant are an abomination to the Lord; be assured, they will not go unpunished.

Before his downfall a man's heart is proud, but humility comes before honor.

A man's pride shall bring him low, but honor shall uphold the humble in spirit.

Frankly if I were Do Kwon I would be VERY afraid for my life.  A LOT of people lost a LOT of money.  Some may have considered taking their own lives. But I guarantee you there are also some he effectively screwed out of "size" who, when they are thinking deadly thoughts, are not thinking of themselves.

It is wasteful to try to explain to him. Especially him. Don't explain to Juanita J. G. sHe has Truth against Facts!    

To be honest, you should also be aware of the trolling and that sHe is a journalist.    

sHe will try to be vampiric as possible and the goal is to make you give up and stop posting. sHe is an intruder that wants to break those around that have a view different from the narative sHe is being paid for to maintain and copulate into the minds of the unaware. Stop bothering, is not worth it. Just stop.    

As usual you are not reading my context.

My point is RETAIL (not the WO thread) is NOT interested in BTC right now.  They have not been since they bought between 13k-20 in 2017, held and lost at least half their money when they got out, or shifted into garbage coins.

Institutional buyers have been filing in over the last 5 years, and some of the smarter one offs.  Billionaires, home offices and the like.

I would say the average WO denizen is somewhere between 20-80% in Bitcoin.  But the average monkey jppg buyer has less than 5%.

The list I am making saves the best for last and puts it in all caps.  But land and precious metals are also going to be safe havens in the coming storm.  The riskiest of the three is land, with bitcoin coming in second.  Metals are not risky, they are boring and reliable... and may just hold their relative value at best.

I personally have a small cache of silver and gold, and own my own home.  I am not going to reverse mortgage my home to buy Bitcoin, and I do not need to.

The rest of your post is good enough including the reference to various scenarios.  I should clarify my moderately bearish up/down/sideways numbers are meant to be interpreted as VERY short term.

I think right now we are biased to choppy/down scenarios.  But I do not think we go very far down... we are right around the 200DMA currently.   And with a good non trivial chance at going up from here.  The reason for this is the macro environment is horrifying. Ultimately this makes Bitcoin more valuable.  Bigly so. But maybe not during the next month.

I will also point out that while you call me dumb over and over, I was here at this forum years before you, and I expect also "in bitcoin" then too...  Dumb luck I guess. (It really was... but so was yours )

fkn comedy gold

 

Explanation

No I'm clear on that. Except when the crash happened, at first I thought it was about USDT indeed, since I didn't know UST existed.

I chose USDC because I believed some of the FUD about USDT, I guess.

Happy b'day to our WO mate @LFC_Bitcoin who's long time bitcoin holder and it has changed his life also is celebrating his fine day with choco bitcoin cake which seems quite holding like rather than eating it .So enjoy your day man.

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Whales getting shocked why the hell he's not getting panicked and helping them to buy more at low

Just accumulating more at these discounted prices that we are not gonna see anytime soon



The real bitcoiners fucking the bears and holding strong with diamond hands and investing more at dips.