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I agree completely. The new investors in the last 2 years failed miserably, with the exception of Michael Saylor. I thought they've learned the lesson after the first crash a year ago. I mean, it took only 3-4 months to return to 65K after the crash to 28K. It was obvious that this price was achievable soon again. Then why should someone sell at 30K? But no, they did it again and again. Not to mention all those "crypto experts" who mocked
BTC maximalists. I doubt that they will learn terra's lesson and quit investing in shitcoins. These people think they are smart, but they are not. They rely on their personal experience and achievements, but are not used to doubt every project and the man behind it. The cost of this lesson will be devastating one day.
Meanwhile, only the OG hodlers continue to accumulate silently. They sell only what is needed, when it is needed. The hard thing is to plan and keep the balance between the present needs and the desire to have as much
BTC as possible. The inflation is making this task even harder, but even if there are some mistakes on the way, crashes like this can be used to correct them. I'm content with my current balance, but if the bear market brings the price below 25K, I will be even happier to reinvest in
BTC for even better balance.
I honestly do not think retail (the masses) were EVER buying seriously since the 2017 runup. We have seen very little retail action. I believe there is a growing groundswell of millennial and Gen-Z DCA buyers. But their footprint is relatively small still. It will honestly take that groundswell moving into Gen-x and Boomers for it to really start to have an impact.
Even though the dollar value of Bitcoin was larger this time around it was only between 1.x-3 times bigger. SO we could expect that volume may decrease, but not this much.
The reason for this? I may have said it too many times, but it is because the big buys that actually DID move the price were happening at OTC desks. Bitcoin OGs with 5 digits plus of BTC were unloading behind the scenes into the hands of mostly institutional and "home office" investors so they can secure their earthly comfort while holding enough behind to never need to worry.
The masses ONLY were interested in DeFi and NFTs again this time. Bitcoin is "Boomercoin". Novogratz with his stupid tattoo has the even more permanent imprint of his failure in the record of time. And now we are the point where the dominoes of all the projects similar to Luna are going to go. I could be wrong, and instead all the people currently calling for an "altseezon" might be right (so many of these it seems) but if I were a big alt investor I would be looking at my holdings wondering where the disease would show up next, and try to frontrun it.
The easy solution is to just divest the alts and put it in safe investments like gold, silver, land and... BITCOIN.
As I write this post we are 82 blocks deep in the mempool.
Overwhelmingly large amounts of this are 1s/b transaction. So either large consolidations or some sort of attack. I am biased to the former, but the latter is not impossible. In fact I think we stand a chance to see what started with Luna continue on to the next most vulnerable alt available to the people who stand to make incredible amounts of money orchestrating the attack.
On the other had it seems that if people are actually doing this as a planned attack on "crypto" then they must realize that after a certain number of these failures they will drive an ENORMOUS amount of smarter retail straight into Bitcoin. All that missing volume that was aimed at monkey jpegs, dog coins, and various smart contract ponzis will either get out of "crypto" entirely, or run to the safety of hard assets like precious metals, real estate and BITCOIN. If either by design or by natural forces we see the next alt go down, then the next, then the next...
When do we expect to see the market waking up and abandoning crypto altogether?
I am having a hard time figuring the impact this will have on BTC. But my gut thinks it could look something like this:
50% - Lower price
30% - Chop
20% - Rocket
Because enough people are going to exit ALL crypto to probably hurt bitcoin's price, or possibly keep it mostly even. But if humans are smarter than I am giving them credit for in my above estimation then we will see a fire lit under our little rocket.
If your eyes are open you can see that SOMEONE is executing a planned, controlled demolition of western crony-capitalism. And BITCOIN is either part of that plan or a huge bete-noir for those planners. I think it is WAY more likely the latter which means they are going to HAVE to try to destroy it or render it somehow neutered. But we know how this goes. They can't.
So where do we go next? Feck if I know.
