Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3881. (Read 26712378 times)

Someone's having a blast playing with fancy toys.

Explanation

https://i.imgur.com/QJemHLs.mp4
https://imgur.com/gallery/FJjHpSS

Explanation

Just think about it for a moment.

Cant remember more troubled times...most people alive today hadnt been born yet..  Decades of senseless regime change wars...Insurrection...a three year global pandemic.. unrelenting helicopter printing...recessions..stagflation...inflation...looming hyperinflation...a nation state threatening unspeakable horror once again....no..nobody have ever really threatened the World in both deed and action like Putin has since 1962.


...and yet

bitcoin is still trading within a trading range of its previous and current all time high    cant shake this feeling like bitcoin is going to make a move soonish..be it days weeks or months......soon     i dont know which way it will be...just that it will be most likely be large

interesting


--------

the afternoon wall report

bitcoin is currently trading near $39ish on strong volume...engulfing yesterdays declines as of press time



take these for what they are...large and boring.. one with scribbles showing noisy paths...as all eyes are on the present and immediate future in the circled AOI

dyor

shrunk with link to save everyones eyeballs...just this once
W

https://i.imgur.com/KFV9md2.jpg


Weekly with arbitrary trendline showing

https://i.imgur.com/pLWfZFJ.jpg

Weekly fork

https://i.imgur.com/Y7xOiMK.jpg

Weekly fork with clouds

https://i.imgur.com/JY2XwVN.jpg

W closer fork and clouds

https://i.imgur.com/8IxTkRD.png

D

https://i.imgur.com/cP1s7KR.jpg
stronghands

Ignore those few lame references you may see today to "Pi Day". The real holiday today is Steak and Blowjob Day. It's always one month after Valentine's Day. Valentine's Day is usually all about women. Steak and Blowjob Day is a holiday for guys.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steak_and_Blowjob_Day

It's real, it's fun. Its real fun!

Explanation

I'm still hoping for orbital solar but people keep crying about death rays and such.

It becomes a lot more clear when you just assume that they're all utterly corrupt. Not that I think the petulant teen is right but those politicians know which side their bread is buttered.

It's probably hard to write such legislation that is internally consistent , doesn't run afoul of limitations on their power or wouldn't set bad precedent/affect stuff they've got their grubby fingers in and want to continue. That's even without those who already have some socked away in case they need to make a quick getaway.

Hahahaha

Yeah...

sometimes it is not easy to remember details...

or at least some details stand out more than others, including that damn coyote kept going through that rock ledge with his rocket.. but the number kept getting lower and lower and lower.. .. never ending, so it seemed at the time.



Jimbo said it first...


You sure that you got that right, ToxicMoxic?

Explanation

I just don't consider that we in a position that is very comparable to 2015.. Yes.. I will agree that in 2015, we were in a prolonged flat, but we were at the bottom of a correction.. and ended up being a bottom.. even though at the time, we were not sure whether the bottom was completely in.

I think that you are going to be hard pressed to make a realistic comparison.. even though you are throwing it out there as if it were a real point of meaningful pondering.

I think that many people would assert that we are in a kind of territory that is NOT quite exactly like any place tht we have been before, but at the same time, it does not feel completely strange because it has some feelings of some place that we have been to before.

We are consolidating.. and the break could be up or down..

We are seeming to no longer be within the confines of a four-year fractal.. but it would not be unusual to try to get it to fit by extending out the four-year fractal

We might not really know where we are currently until after we go to where we are going to go..


but part of the dilemma now remains that we should be attempting to figure out where we are going from here by making a comparison to other similar places that we have been in the past.

Of course, guys are going to frame where we are at in ways that help them to attempt to assign probabilities to where we might be going.

I know that you, Biodom and philipma1957 have similar views in regards to believing that we are going to be stuck in our current range for a decently long period of time, though I am not going to clump the two of you together in terms of suggesting that you got to this framework based on the same considerations.

Anyhow, I guess my main point is merely to assert that I doubt that 2015 is a very good comparison point to where we are at now.. even if you might be suggesting that we are at the end of the period rather than the beginning of it.. just does not fit very well for me, at least not without a decent amount of additional data that might end up thereafter supporting it to be a fair and reasonable comparison.


Yeah.. but he is not wrong.

Property is good, and equity tends to be a pretty good investment too.

Surely some of the problems with property and business ownership (kind of like equities) is that the proliferation of money printing has resulted in those markets inflating along with the irresponsible monetary policies that cause curiosities regarding whether something is valuable in itself versus how much of an additional monetary value does that something have because people are using it to secure their value because they are even more scared to keep their value in the dollar.

His conflation of bitcoin, ethereum and doge.. does kind of come off as a kind of uncomfortable sense of equivalencies to the extent that he is not specifying within his reference to the three.

Explanation

WSJ: If Russian Currency Reserves Aren’t Really Money, the World Is in for a Shock
https://www.wsj.com/articles/if-currency-reserves-arent-really-money-the-world-is-in-for-a-shock-11646311306?mod=e2tw


If blocked then:
https://goodwordnews.com/if-foreign-exchange-reserves-arent-really-money-the-world-is-in-shock/

You are not factually wrong that the BTC price has been within that range since December 2020.. and by the way, we use Stamp in these here parts.. so we are talking $28,600 to $69,000.. not your other exchange references.

For sure, if you have a long term BTC accumulation plan.. then surely there is nothing wrong with NOT getting caught up within short term BTC price moves, yet I doubt that we are so detached from short-term BTC price dynamics in a thread like this, even though many of us have already been taking a long view of bitcoin for many years, so the short-term dynamics are not really going to change anything that we do very much - except on the margins (or in small ways)...

Within this thread, many of us are wanting to be a wee bit less detached in terms of attempting to grapple with shorter timeframes of what might happen, and even to attempt to figure out some of the BTC price dynamics within some of the tighter ranges - which your broad $28k to $69k view fails/refuses to grapple with those more immediate questions... .. .And regarding getting woken up, I do find some interest in the more immediate range of $33k to $46k.. so I will even be interested if the BTC price gets close to the ends of those ranges, even if the BTC price does not end up breaking out of those areas.. ... of course, either down or up could happen, and I am more interested in thinking about UP.. and sure might have to deal with down too.. but on the UPside, I am interested in the range of $46k to $50k, $50k to $62k and then $62k to $92k.. and of course, the supra $92k ranges of $92k to $130k and $130k to $200k... and yeah.. we would have to get through the lower BTC price ranges before getting too excited about the upper ranges.. and of course, along the way, we could either have passage of time or considerable BTC price moves that end up causing me to reconsider what I currently expect to be the most relevant BTC price ranges in our possible radar (and peripheries).

Regarding the downside, I am not sure if there is very much to work with.  If we were to get lower than what seems to be our current lower bounds of $33k, then we would likely need to look at $28,600 to $33k.. and then something like $22k to $28.6k, and then the $19k to $22k.. and then sub $19k (which surely seem longshots even if we could spike there if we first did break below $33k and then break below $28.6k and then break below $22k.. and a lot of those seem like long-shots even though the higher ends of the ranges seem more feasible.

Whether or not you attempt to grapple with BTC price dynamics within that $28k to $69k price range and that post December 2020 period is your own choosing, and for sure some of our own experiences and ways of viewing the world (including BTC fundamentals compared with other things going on in the world), will affect how we might consider what is affecting BTC price and our assigning of probabilities to various possible outcomes.


Yes... you can believe what you like... whether you are talking about through the middle of this year, or the end of the calendar year or some longer period of time.  Personally, I would think that the odds are better than 50/50 that there will be a break above $69k before the end of the calendar year.. and probably even better than 50/50 odds to get it before the end of the 2nd quarter.. however, surely, as I already mentioned, I do consider that it is more important, immediate and even worthy of attention to be looking at getting above $46k then $50k and then $62k.. and surely if we get above $62k, it seems to me that the odds of $69k being broken to the upside has high odds of being a done deal.. so in that regard, $62k is currently more important to me to watch than $69k.. but of course, there is nuance.. and of course, my own strategies regarding my
managing of my personal portfolio are not really changed very much in the event that some of the BTC price dynamic matters do not specifically play out how I expect... however, I expect if we were to break below $28.6k or even more extremely breaking below $22k.. I may well need to make some adjustments.. even though I would not expect them to be major.. except maybe just having to reconsider why the fuck is the BTC price so far outside of where I thought that it should be - and likely a lot of bitcoiners would be sharing in some of those kinds of questioning of why the bitcoin investment thesis is playing out so bearishly... and might "we" be wrong about something?  Would we call that a "come to Jesus" moment?  hahahahahaha



I am not sure what is "LN", but regarding the rest of those things, for sure you and I are assigning differing values to their importance in light of what is happening with BTC.  For sure, macro happenings have some effects on bitcoin, and for sure, we are giving them differing weights.. whereby I give them less weight than you, and you describe that as a failure on my part, and surely I would assert that to be the same for you.  I have already asserted your own personal levels of investing into bitcoin at earlier times as considerable failures... so whether your own personal actions in the past are still contributing to your failure/refusal to appreciate the value (or independent dynamic/paradigm shifting) aspect of bitcoin might still be seen to play out... In other words, even if I do not consider my own personal prosperity to be tied to the level of BTC's performance, I do consider that my ongoing recognition of Bitcoin is stronger than your reservations about bitcoin and I believe that bitcoin has superseding powers that go beyond some of the various macro-dynamics that you are pointing out...

I wonder if I should go through them one by one.... even though I doubt that it is worthwhile to really attempt to go into any kind of detailed arguments about what you are pointing out as supposed bitcoin "concern areas."  

pandemic.. what the fuck does bitcoin give any shits about a supposed pandemic?  Yeah there are a lot of economic impacts world-wide and bitcoin just adapts.. whether you say it interfered with the Stock to flow model or whatever, seems like a big so what to me.. maybe it delayed some of bitcoin's price performance. .and of course, governments reacted by printing all kinds of money and engaging in irresponsible monetary policies.. so in that regard maybe it sped up some of bitcoin's adoption.. but in the end.. all of those seem like BIG SO WHATs.. ..it goes up, it goes down it goes in some ways that take a while to recover.. it causes some shifting of BTC's otherwise anticipated price performance curve, but in the end, so what?  Bitcoin is not dead.. tick tock next block, right?.. even if bitcoin is shifted up or down on its otherwise anticipated price curve, so what, no?  As investors, we should be prepared for any of those kinds of things to possibly happen.

chip shortages.... yeah, that affects how much hashpower there is and maybe who is more prepared to  profit because they are more prepared.. but bitcoin likely has around 10x or even 100x excess hashing power in order to be able to be secure from various kinds of hashing power attacks.. yeah, maybe some miners play around with trying to strategize their mining power in order to manipulate, but who cares?  the difficulty adjusts every two weeks, and if there is an attack good luck with that.. even that chinese situation of supposedly withdrawing more than 50% of the hashing power could have been a possible set up for an attack, and didn't some of the miners attempt to learn from what might be going on there.. and surely it seems that no actual direct attack ended up happening.. so tick tock next block and tick tock every two weeks we get an adjustment.. genius no?  Does bitcoin care if there are 2 computers or 20 billion computers engaging in mining of it..?  

Yeah.. chip shortages.. cost go up.,. cost go down.. are you prepared as a miner?  Is the bitcoin network vulnerable in some way?  does it matter if the chip shortages result in strategizing regarding who has the chips?  Does it take 1-2 years to redesign chips to account for any kind of strangling that might have occurred with new chips coming available?  In the end, the difficulty adjusts.. some miners are profitable others are not.. maybe anyone in mining is profitable, but no one new can come in, and the same is true if the difficulty goes up by 10x, some folks are going to be forced out of mining, right? the same is true if the BTC price goes down by 10x, and yeah contemplate that the price might go down by 10x.. which means another 90% lower from here.. yeah right?  mining does not control price.. mining is most likely a lagging indicator and you can contemplate it any way you like just like the chasing of shadows on a cave wall.. and maybe sometimes you might end up being correct in considering matters in that guessing kind of mostly backwards direction.

LN taking foot     ... I don't know what LN is?  Lightning network?  

Ukraine/Russian conflict     ... I doubt that I need any more specific analysis for this outside of what superficial analysis as I already did regarding the Pandemic, no?  Isn't the conflict/war just another excuse to induce fear into the population and have excuses for various kinds of irresponsible monetary policies?  For sure, having missles coming down is going to be more concrete depending upon where you are.. and the role of bitcoin is not exactly clear cut to be affected either way, right?  there are some ways that it is bullish for bitcoin, and there are some ways that it is bearish for bitcoin.  Is it not a wash, then?  Are you going to argue that it is more bullish than bearish or more bearish than bullish?  Are you going to argue that bitcoin's price curve has been delayed or accelerated from this?  Has the BTC price curve shifted up or down?

Maybe what I might be suggesting would be why the fuck do you want to get distracted into all kinds of baloney macro-factors and to be suggesting that bitcoin is affected one way or another by these matters?  Yeah, in the shorter-term we may well see correlation, but in the longer term is there still correlation?  yeah, you cannot see the future, so you believe this time is different, until we get 4-6 years down the road and we look back and we likely will end up seeing that bitcoin ended up being way less correlated to these various short-term world events other than what had been anticipated.  The stock to flow curve largely ends up continuing to play out including continuing needs to account for the four-year fractal and the exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and network effects... and so the shorter term areas in which you are trying to find meaning from those shadows that you see on the cave walls end up having little to no correlation to what actually ended up happening.. and you were distracted by baloney and largely irrelevant factors.


Oh gawd... .is that why you are in your mid-60s still trying to accumulate bitcoin, even though you have been a member of this forum for about a year and a half longer than me?  (don't get me wrong.. better late than never, but it seems quite a surprise that you do not have a bit more humble pie in light of how wrong you had already been in your failure/refusal to sufficiently/adequately stock up on BTC in the past - which kind of demonstrates that you used to have a pretty damned big misunderstanding of what bitcoin is.. and you really have not been showing that you have even learned completely from your past mistakes - except your desires to want to lord over others in terms of some kind of predicting powers that you supposedly have.. and I would argue that in managing your portfolio being right is way the fuck less important than attempting to manage your risk in terms of being prepared for a variety of scenarios...including acting on long-term stick-with-it-ness.... and yes, some of those skills can be improved upon with the passage of time, if you are not dead first).

You are trying to argue ur lil selfie as more right?

me as more wrong?

O.k..  

have you heard of zooming out a bit?


Part of my point is that you are caught up into too much vagueness.. and the fact that you are focusing on a truth in regards to the range that is that broad.. you are not really saying anything.  So for example, if you are proclaiming that the sun is going to come up tomorrow at 7am and set at 7pm, and I am wanting to talk about some more nuanced aspects regarding what is happening at various points in between.. then I am not saying you are wrong, I am saying that you are being too broad in what you are talking about... and maybe even avoiding grappling with some of the real questions to some extent.



Good for you.

Just to be clear.. when you are referring to the double top, you are referring to the $69k top on November 9th, and I suppose that since December I have been attempting to assign various probabilities to various price points in which we might break out or not break out... ..so I am having trouble understanding how you are feeling like you are so damned smart because somehow you supposedly recognized the future way better than anyone else since that second top had happened in november?  Yeah right.     give me a break.\


Fuck off with your retrospective claims of supposedly knowing the future before it had happened.


Ok. fair enough regarding august 1st, and I said greater than 50% odds of breaking out by the end of the second quarter which would be June 30... and hey, you might not even realize that calling greater than 50% odds would be way safer than proclaiming something to be 100% or near certain or whatever the fuck you mean by "mortal lock."  Of course, I understand that you are joking to some degree, yet we also understand that you frequently are making various nonsense proclamations and then later proclaiming yourself to be right.. except sure when you end up being wrong, you will proclaim that too ($70k in May and variations of that).. but on a personal level, I find it a lot less helpful for those kinds of flip-flopping claims of certainty than to really be attempting to grapple with a variety of possible scenarios or even to be attempting to be grappling with some of the more narrow questions that are being asked through the poll in this thread that got this topic going..  

I doubt that infofront was referring to $28k to $69k.. but yeah, he was vague in his poll question, so the fact that we can have varying interpretations of what might have been meant is a fair enough difference of opinion.. even though I doubt that he was meaning to go even close to as broadly as your own seeming avoidance of the question seems to be going, philip.

Whenever I see Greta, I always think Fetal Alcohol Syndrome. But thats not the point right now. Obviously POW is not the enemy here, rather the enemy is the way we produce our electricity. Taking POW out of the equation won't change the fact that we burn awe-inspiring amounts of fossil fuels to keep our lights on. What we need is fusion energy, the sooner the better.

Explanation

Yep, so i totally confused it. Thanks for the clear info and example, also merited your post.