Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 3877. (Read 26712700 times)

I am currently in a yurt in the Appalachian mountains.

True story.

Just look the post above, you don't even recall anything cause you getting old mate.
The DPC model literally calls $18k the bottom for 2022, the model he posted.

So I made up that news, that's what you are saying? Great.

And now STFU.
https://www.vice.com/en/article/jgmnpd/the-freedom-convoy-bitcoin-donations-have-been-frozen-and-seized

I doubt anyone here is taking anything for granted in terms of being in a bull market rather than being in a bear market, especially if we are looking at a question regarding a transition to a bear market might be happening at some point.

I don't know where you get the ridiculous framing of spikes up being indicative of a bear market rather than a bull market.

And you are also characterizing the rise from April 1 to end of June 2019 from about $4,200 to $13,800 as a kind of fake out?

Wow.. get a grip.

Even though much of that 3.5x price rise did end up correcting back, the 3.5x price rise largely confirmed that our then bear market was over.. .. at least by the time we got into the supra $6ks and of course beyond that too... as you acknowledge.

Sometimes I wonder which one of you bitcoin naysayers and hopeners for downity are worse?

You come up with some pretty crazy ass twists, and surely for some reason wanting to get us to presume that we are in a bear market rather than a bull market.. even though when at best you probably can ONLY proclaim that we may well be teetering between the two.. and we need more data to figure out where we are at... ..even if you might have your own high level of confidence that has good chances of not playing out too well, especially if you start to become too smug and presumptuous about it.

Do you want to throw some numbers out there?  Are we going below $33k?  how about $28.6k?  what are the odds of each?  even getting to $28.6k would mean getting below $30k.. is there potentially a 50/50 odds bet there?  You taking the under?


Yes... for some strange reason.. we (the royal) like ToxicMoxic better than uie poo-ie and find his assertions to be more credible, even if he makes bearish ones.  I don't recall ToxicMoxic assigning high probabilities to sub $20k prices in recent times... Did I miss something?

I also don't recall ToxicMoxic making any kind of vague-ass assertion about bitcoin funds being locked.. that kind of implied the bitcoin chain might have been locked by the Canadian government without giving some description of the presence of third parties and police coercion being involved.  Maybe it is just me recognizing such differences? 

Mr JJG

Your reply to Toxic on posting the same model


Your reply to me posting the same model


I don't see no "bullshit", "retard", "DOWNity hopenium", "nonsense models", "down before up" words in the reply to Toxic?
Such hypocrisy huh?

Explanation

Let me tell you some facts so you can take the stupid logic out of your mind.

It took Crypto 12 years to reach 1 Trillion $ Market Cap and just another 6 months to reach 2 Trillion $ Market Cap.
So if the whole market can x2 in 6 months, anything is possible.

Look where we stand in the Technology adoption curve.

Good catch..the're lots of super opinionated people around here.

Where did you see a blowoff top in a day?
the param for blowoff top is typically 100% in a MONTH (which is 3.3% a day, on average), FOLLOWING the long term slower rise beforehand (do you see this here somewhere?).
Check your charts, buddy.

besides, didn't it just reverse for like a 4th-5th time?

Chill the F out guys, the Model I posted is the one Toxic2040 posted the same day. You didn't told him that these models looks bullshit?
I don't see any replies to him the way you said to me? I guess it's just the mentality of yours that everything ImThour post is bullshit.

On the other hand, I don't care what you guys think. I can post whatever I want to post, press that Ignore if you can't take my bullshit.
Stop cornering me or hating me for sharing something someone else already did without getting any hatred. Sick mentality people.

Biggest BS of the year! All blowoff tops were actually parabolic rallies! 

YOU ARE WRONG !!! My frog is better then yours!!    

toxic? maybe your shrooms, lol

Depends man. Stop being toxic. 

If the people that bought don't sell / day trade. Then it will blow back up.  

Beware of the fast moving markets.
Fast up is [almost] always an indication of the bear, not a bull.
I want to be optimistic, but this is the way bear market grinds you.

Even the fast pump in April of 2019 eventually reversed fully in March of 2020 (covid-dump), although I wouldn't mind a pop like that (it was from about $4K to $14K between april and june-july 2019). In our case a pop to 55k might be the equivalent.

Where is @cAPSLOCK?
Related?
#Fun



After a while,



@Elon. BTC doesn't give you f**k anymore.

We love you too!        

Explanation

I suppose that we are both having a bit of fun here with some of the extremes of the goofball, yet sometimes we might need to clarify because there are likely some people who might end up believing that his assertions might be reasonable... and so it does not hurt sometimes that we might want to put out some numbers to make sure we keep our grip upon reality.

We have already discussed that if there were some kind of extreme dip right now, we might be able to get down to the 200-week moving average, which is currently approaching $20.5k, but even if we look at how much support has been holding, it seems as if it would take quite a bit of effort to even get down that far... never say never, but geez... let me see $33k get breached first, then $28.6k, and then lower $20ks would then become possible.. so there are a few thresholds to get below first.

Furthermore, we had a 56% correction from $64,895 down to $28,600 that took place in May, June, July.. and then more recently we got a 52% correction down from $69k to $32,951, so far.. .these correction come after a price appreciation that might have been 7x at best.. and surely we might have to consider how long it has taken such 7x to take place... including whether measuring from the bottom, middle or top.. of various potentially representative price points that played out between December 2017 and September 2020.. in order to figure out what would be a potentially representative jumping off price point... and it seems hardly obvious that we even have greater than 50% odds that we will have any kind of further down from here.. this might be the last day to get BTC below $40k and such a UPpity scenario seems to be more likely than the conglomeration of BTC price models that ImThour has been throwing out there while hoping that something might stick.. perhaps? perhaps?


well maybe... perhaps take the models with a grain of salt, even though it seems that some models give us better depictions of reality as compared with other models.... and in that regard, I think that bull models do tend to do better.. at least directionally to help us to figure out where we are, based on where we have been and where we might well be going.


Sorry to say.. you do know more than that... and so in that regard.. yeah.. directionally we know which way we are likely going, even if we are not sure about how far we are going to go and how long it is going to take.. but other than that.. we have pretty decent ideas about directionally which way we are going and which models point that out to us better than other models..


Fair enough.. we are thinking similarly.. but making our assertions a wee bit differently.. and in the end.. we have decent ideas about the ongoing direction.


Long shot.. but it is possible that it could happen.. but not too good to be assiging too high of odds to such fantasies.. especially since we still seem to be in a bull market...

Now, if we were in a bear market, then surely touching the 200-week moving average which is currently at $20.5k or even wicking below it quickly would have a wee bit higher odds, but currently, the odds seem to be quite a long shot.. 10% might even be charitable... but if we were to get below $33k and then below $28.6k and then the odds would start to become higher than 10%.. but currently, I probably would not put anything greater than 2% or 5% on such a gamble.. even though I understand that reasonable minds can assess these matters differently regarding the assignment of odds... including how much brainpower or how much typing power should go into such long shot scenarios.


win/win?  I am not sure.  I would really hate it.. but surely, I still have buy orders going down that far...and I would hate it all the way if any of those got filled below $33k... even though I still am not prepared to rest assured that our current $32,951 bottom is in until we spend at least a day above $46k and maybe even I am not really going to rest assured about the $32,951 bottom being in until we spend a day above $50k...that's my tentative concentration points.. and fucking sad all the way down I would be while buying up a few coins just to make my lil selfie feel less bad and also I would have to end up reassessing that we are likely not in a bullmarket anymore.. would not feel like any kind of win for me.. even though financially and psychologically I am prepared for extremes.. even extremes that I do not want to happen and even extremes that I consider to be quite unlikely to happen... such as a wicking down or below the current 200-week moving average.


Lot's of weak hands would be shaken for sure.. and maybe some of the shitcoins might end up getting purged.. but I still would not like it.. ... .. I might even need to make some further adjustments to my buy schedule if we go below $30k.. would not be fun.. even though I might just keep it the way I have it.. still would not be fun... ... gosh going down below $30k.. might even trigger a kind of delayed bull market.. but I am not sure.. could kind of screw some investment thesis up, and I suppose a more likely rationale to justify fueling such would be the purging of shitcoin froth.... but still.. just does not seem that any further down is actually necessary in order to fuel further purging of shitcoin froth.. ...

sorry to be crying in my milk before any such thing happens.. but really does not seem good to me.. and I think that it is also a pretty big long shot especially for anyone expecting sub $30k coins.. we will see.  we will see.

models you say

Unless that country is Russia or person is Putin