Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4018. (Read 26713514 times)

I'm starting to wonder about the uses of establishing a circle-jerk of private channels between us; wondering how that factors into the larger LN as a whole...

EDIT: ... and to be clear, letter agencies reading this stuff, no I'm not looking to cause problems - I'm just thinking out loud kinda deal. I have no idea what is going on. Seriously. I'm so retarded, I'm not able to breathe without consciously thinking about it. I sleep in an iron lung.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lItYBU9nYTc

That seems to be their attack vector of late, seizing anything from mixing services.

Like Bob pointed out a few pages back, Layer 2 needs to address this.

Or there is Monero atomic swaps now.
Don bat slap me man!

You can certainly run it that way.  BUT most of the node in a box distros are based on a RPi platform.  So it will be a little more DYI I think... I think the next best thing would be one of the docker containers... not sure what's current in that regard.

I have run Bitcoin servers on Old desktops, old laptops, rack servers, VPS instances, Amazon VPSes, RPis, and even a Celeron based QNAP NAS via docker containers.

The RPi nodes are BY FAR the best choice for a home setup.  They are low power, and easy to tuck somewhere next to your hub and always turned on. I think they are by far the best choice as long as you do not intend to do heavy duty business on them, in which case, if no $$$ was an object rack servers in a cage at some well endowed server warehouse... living in Dallas that would be easy...  But I think even if I wanted to run a little commerce I could get pretty far using the Raspiblitz for the node and the BTCPay server before needing to upgrade.

I have been itching to build a Seed Signer and am also super sad that the Pi Zero W models seem to be impossible to get.    https://seedsigner.com/

Explanation

I am not sure of lower numbers. I'm not into bullish or bearish nonsense, cuz I trade in sh!tcoins. But I do analyze what the "BTCig Puba" does so I can swing trade based on how the wind blows. And what I have 100% certainty is that anything under $52K is a dip.

@JJG

Many of us are in a position now where financially we are very comfortable. I’m not too bothered if we go up or down in the short term. I have buy orders in at $31,800 & $28,000. If they hit I will buy back a large % of the coins I sold (25% of my stash) at a 50% discount. We all know where bitcoin is going medium to long term so let’s all relax.

I actually think those orders will get hit you know. I’ve thought for some time that $69,000 was the top. I think we are entering a bear market. As we didn’t get a crazy blow off top though, I don’t think we will get a terrifying 80% crash from $69,000. I’m thinking maybe the absolute bottom & worse case scenario will hit within the next 12-18 months at $23,000 or something like that. We won’t go below $20,000 imo.

Any way like I said, short term who cares. We are going to $100,000+ after the next halving. We’ll probably hit something euphoric like $250,000 in 2025 at the peak of the next bull cycle.

(The above is all assuming that 4 year cycles are still in play. If not then who the hell knows).

Of course, in recent days each of us have been wondering why we could not just go up from here and get above $46k "as we were scheduled" in order to increase confidences that the $32,951 bottom is in.

That bottom still might end up being in, but I am doubting that its odds are better than 50/50.. and it's not like I go much beyond 50/50 in anything that I say regarding short term BTC price anyhow.. even though I feel that I do tend to have my leanings that error on the side of our being in a bull market (even when we are not.. hahahahahaha... those kinds of biases of mine have not really damaged me too much psychologically nor financially in the past 8-ish years)...

In recent months, we have had folks proclaiming that we are in a bear market, and gosh some of these proclamations go back to May-ish of last year... and some of them have been ongoing, consistent and persistent and others have been more opportunistic to be materializing during the more DOWNity times of whatever correction that we are in at the time.. and surely others come after the fact and say "I told you so - look at my post x, y and z."

A frequent underlying fear continues to be whether something like 2018 could repeat... If you might recall (or look at the charts), we had around 5 or 6 times of visiting and revisiting the "support" at $6k, so the feeling was that $6k had to be a pretty damned solid-bottom... so in that sense by the time we got to September/October/November 2018, there was quite a bit of growth in confidence from a broad section of the BTC HODLers that $6k was the bottom... because it had been tested so many times.

So then our current question could be the price arena of $30k.. Is $30k really a bottom for this era... has it been tested sufficiently and strongly enough, and could we end up in a similar situation as we had experienced with our nearly 50% break of BTC price support below $6k once it happened in mid-November 2018?

Personally, I hate to become too cocky regarding whatever BTC price related beliefs that I have because so many times there have been overshooting.. and not just exaggerated overshootings but something that really seems to border upon extreme overshooting - even though sometimes some BTC price points do seem quite difficult to achieve (in spite of proclamations of their inevitability) and also there has to be a lot of tree shaking to get us to even get to something like $28,600 - if we were to get there... however, we also know that if multiple tested bottoms end up tending to have more bottom if they end up getting breached..

I really hate going down this bear-talkening road, and for sure, I hate to be presuming that support is going to break at various BTC price levels.. because we have had many times in which reversals end up happening before the price gets even close to theoretical "support" levels, and those waiting for further bottoms.. end up getting screwed because they really are not sufficiently prepared for UP.

Many of us who have been participating in this thread for a few years have gotten ourselves sufficiently prepared for UP.. so I amnot really too worried about many of us, even if there are some of the guys/gals herein who do seem to want to trade these kinds of conditions that may not really work out too well for them in the end.

I am not going to presume that lower $30ks won't get tested, even though I am considering that any breach below $30k would have difficulties getting anywhere close to even a 30% correction from there (which would be right around $20k).. and I am not sure if I am saying anything controversial.. ... and how much should we even have any dry powder still in reserves for prices below $35/$36k is surely a matter of personal discretion and could well be funds that ONLY serve as insurance rather than being anything that would realistically end up being used..   For sure, I am not against attempting to maintain insurance whenever feasible, and surely I am for neither running out of fiat for the drops that could come nor running out of BTC for any price rises that may end up happening...

Explanation

Now do DC.

Should be able to run it on a regular PC or Laptop, right? I don't think an RPi is a requirement.

If you were paying attention, they tried several times before Floyd but weren't able to get it to "catch" because they were the wrong type of "victim". Even with Floyd, they had a very selective release of the video which, when the withheld parts were finally released cast things in a very different light. The damage had successfully been done by then, of course.

In short, it wasn't about Floyd, it was about stirring up civil unrest in an election year. Nothing really got changed and yet... *crickets*

Yes.  That bolded part.  And Lioghtning adds another whole dimension of abstraction.  I wonder how lightning over Liquid might work.  That could be a very private setup.  You peg in, and no one can even see you open a channel really...  it would be like a back hole inside a black hole.  "Cept they aren't really black... just shades of grey.

I need a drink.

Potentially. That's the "tainting" I was talking about. Though there may be plausible deniability there in some cases and I don't know how LN plays into things (when it's not driving its node operators nutty).

I was just objecting to the "every Satoshi can be traced" which is just not factual. It's a bit nitpicky but I think important enough to bring up. Sometimes it's worth reminding ourselves that Bitcoin is a ledger and bitcoins are an abstraction that don't really exist.

If you have some kind of pooling service, and there are something like 1,000 input addresses, and let's say that 5 of the input addresses are "blacklisted,"  then the various government agencies want to taint all 1,000 output addresses - but the reality of the matter remains that they are full of shit.. because only less than 1/2 percent actually were blacklisted...

We can all get scared away from using those kinds of pooling services, but the reality of the matter is that they tend to be very effective and ultimately if they are used on a wide-spread basis lead the government to having to blacklist all bitcoin addresses.. which surely is neither workable nor practical, but it works so long as they can scare people away from using those mixing/pooling services.


Your response, Torque, shows your own inclination towards cloudiness in your thinking.  It would be best to take the politics out of your ways of looking at the matter rather than looking at these matters through tainted lenses.. even if the tolerance of protest does vary from time to time based on political climate.. whining about some protesters getting treated better than others does not get us very far in any kinds of attempts to really work through matters without getting overly distracted.


What else is new?

That's part of the problem, but I doubt that the solution would be to whine about one protest getting better treatment.. merely because the powers that be were less threatened by it.

Explanation

Well... This is a very interesting question, I think.  And actually somewhat easier to answer than it looks.

Who have you opened channels with, and what condition were those channels in when you closed them?

You and I have three channels open together.  So no matter WHAT is done with our channels, you and I will be the only ones to see the bitcoin at the end of those channel's lives.  We could facilitate trade between millions of transactions among hundreds of thousands of parties, and when we CLOSE that channel it is still the 5mm each (I think) that one or the other of us put up between us. Those bitcoin have never moved.  The ONLY thing different is who gets what at the end of it all.  It is even possible (though difficult) that we both get back exactly the same sats we put into each channel only losing the value of the fees involved.  And at the other extreme the other user could receive the bitcoin from the contract initially put in by the channel partner.  In the latter case you would have another channel with another user where you gained exactly that much equity.

So far as layer one is concerned it's sort of like a poker game.  You and I put money in the middle, and then one or both of us gets some of that money back out.  The only difference is in the meantime our nodes could have agreed to thousands of transactions canceling themselves back and forth forever.

I have a couple of channels with partners where we have done magnitudes more transactions than the channels even hold.  If I wanted to close those channels I could let the money all come over to my side, then close the channel effectively doing nothing.  Back to square one. 

So the point is if you open a channel with a criminal you might end up with  bitcoin used in a crime previously.   I personally see the opportunity to "launder" money on layer 1 with the lightning network to be fairly bad, unless we are only talking about very small amounts.  Now moving money around privately without a clear link???  Well that is another story.  I have a channel opened between the two nodes I run as well!   (Well I used to... I need to reopen it lol)

I had to look up Wakanda... which I found to be a fictional country.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wakanda

I am not much of a fan of out of context posts, even if there might be some kind of joke in there.


No matter what, I doubt that we are ever going to get "true democracy," even though many of us would recognize the Indian versus Canada situation as one in which India came out way better than Canada.

Many years ago, I had been studying the topic of democracy and capitalism - and so many times the ideas are weaved together and sometimes we have to question whether both can exist - it gets worse in the workplace.... hostility towards democracy in the workplace... and yeah, I suppose even my own ideas are conflicted about so many contradictions that exist around the topic.. including how much public/people input is enough.. in order to allow the benevolent dictator to come to results that are best for everyone..... Even in the bitcoin space, we have all kinds of divergencies in ideas regarding priorities, so it is difficult to even know if bitcoin fixes this - even though many of us likely realize that a lot of problems have gotten worse from irresponsibilities regarding the money systems, Cantillon effects and for sure the money printer go brrrr corruptions... .. and for sure, if you listen to the https://overcast.fm/+KiHqeQ44w">Tales from the Crypt podcast (towards the end) that I linked a couple of days ago.. you will see discussion of India seeming to have way better policies/practices in terms of how they are dealing with Corona treatments as compared to the west (and/or the vaccine oriented countries).. which seems to be showing quite a bit of truth in terms of some of the fraudulent crux of the matter regarding Canada's extreme Corona measures that are likely not even close to being scientifically-based (rather than money and population-control based), in the public interest and likely implemented as control measures rather than something that might be freely discussed (even if the truckers might have gone overboard in their ways of employing the trucks to their advantage).

What I'm trying to wargame out in my mind, is if there is any market for selling "dirty" coins cheaper, to liquidity providers who DGAF about taint, and just throw all that tainted coin into Lightning, and watch the WEF and TPTB have steam and sparks coming out of their ear-holes because tainted coins they have tried to "outlaw" are actually being put to good use...

/brainfart

Well lets be fair now, it doesn't take a mastermind to block a few streets.

TPTB have been creating choke points in all citys and probably never thought of the fact it could be used against them.