Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4058. (Read 26712694 times)

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Yeah baby!!

(I only tard a little these days)

Mighty fine bottom I should say... 

Muahahahahaha    I guess now it's pretty obvious Proud Honey is a bitcoin bull and a HODLer trolling us to death with his pseudo-bearish posts. 

Sounds like making various distinctions without a difference.

Bitcoin can surely be thought of as an investment... and a superior way to hold your value.

However since bitcoin has tended to be volatile as fuck, you gotta be careful in terms of putting too much of your value into it... you have to make sure that you can manage your cashflow and expenses which surely is going to vary from person to person... and not everyone is going to have a lot of spare cashflow that they can invest or save unless s/he has his/her shit together... and has figured out ways to live within his/her means.. and not too have too much drama in terms of not having a variety of ways to spend in the event that emergency financial situations come.... which is more likely if any of us is not keeping value in a variety of places (and even have built up enough surplus value) to be able to have options in the case that cash is needed... to be able to eat, keep a roof over our heads (including various utility bills), transportation, taxes, socializing expenses, and other expenses that normal people have.


We seem way too early in our adoption level (still likely less than 1% of the world's population) to be proclaiming that bitcoin is becoming mature enough to no longer have severe FOMO episodes.

Of course, growing market cap does cause bitcoin to be way more difficult to accomplish 100x runs in a year.. and for sure we know that BTC already had a few 100x runs that would could go back and measure.

So, I am tentatively considering that Bitcoin's max market cap is something like 1,000x gold's market cap, which would be about 10,000x from today, and which would be around $1 quadrillion dollars.  However, I will qualify my statement by acknowledging and recognizing that certain kinds of technological innovations (and bitcoin and various supporting projects that build around it) are likely going to contribute towards the increasing of potential values beyond $1quadrillion (even talking in the value of today's dollars and not referring to some future inflation that is inevitable with the dollar and other fiats).


Huh?  This time around we ONLY got down to $32,951.. so there was no sub $30k bottom.... this time around.

Of course, in May/June/July we had sub $30k.. but that's becoming old news quite soon.. and it seems that if we are able to get above $46k for maybe a couple of days.. then that may well be enough to proclaim that the "bottom is in" - even though it does seem that quite a few members are coming over to the side of the bottom is already "in" under current conditions, and they may well be correct about that?  

For sure, we seem to have a decent amount of UPpity momentum that makes it more difficult to reverse if the momentum starts to gain staying power.. even though with our having have had touched upon $44,524 within the past couple of hours (and looks like wanting to revisit getting above that price level, as I type) we are still about 35% within reach of our current $32,951 bottom from January 24.

I have some difficulties imagining BTC prices going straight above $50k without some kind of meaningful correction along the way; however, many of us know that bitcoin can end up getting into a kind of punishment mode (which means going up without correction and to punish those who either waited to buy BTC, bet against BTC or failed/refused to adequately prepare for UP).. and surely, it seems that conditions could be fairly ripe for the happening of such a punishment mode.. where a lot of folks had got caught up into beliefs about down scenarios (or down before UP), giving up on BTC going up, failing/refusing to adequately prepare for UP, and also starting to not only increase their shorts but to continue to place new shorts as the BTC price goes up.. so yeah.. these ways of thinking about bitcoin and these kinds of behaviors in managing bitcoin holding (including trading) can contribute towards providing ongoing UPpity fuel... seems to me... seems to me... no one likes the snot-nosed 14-year old brat getting rich too quickly, and several of those 14-year olds have already been shaken out.

By the way, I know quite a few of us regular WO members have been fantasizing about a $10k + daily green candle, and it would be nice to get one at this time..and it would not even need to come exactly on the daily.. even though it would be more clear to see it that way.. and such a thing, at this time, would surely reck quite a few fence-sitters, those who have failed/refused to adequately prepare themselves for UP (should I mention any names here?), bitcoin naysayers (and hopefully shitcoin pumpeners, too).

Don't be silly. $10? No! Back below $42k, easily. And certainly, we know that regardless of the immediate ups and downs, we're heading lower because the federal reserve has, effectively, determined it. The period of appropriate interest rate increases and tapering guarantee that bitcoin's price cannot sustainably grow from here, which is how we know over the next year and beyond prices will go lower.

Explanation

$10 by EOD.

https://twitter.com/Bitcoin/status/1490754190016090112

Quick HELLO from quarantine, brothers.

First two days were full of headache and sore throat, but it's getting progressively better since noon. I even tried to do a haiku yesterday, couldn't make it because of brainfog.
However, was PCR tested today, so quarantine will last 9 days from now, regardless how good i feel and non-contagious i got, but this is life in a country led by retards.
The next breakdown of our (third) coalition government, followed by another reelection, is already gleaming on the political horizon.

Really enjoying the price actions of the last few days, but SOMA it looks a little less volatile and thus "controlled" to me.
Curious how it will continue. Stubbornly set sellwalls on $44.500-ish levels appear on and off. Looks like bots or nervous trigger fingers?

Keep it going, i will have to support and replace my wife in our household in the next few days because she is about to get to the peak of her Omicron infection (tested positive today).
Cheers!

EDIT: Just got texted, today's PCR test came out positive. Check!

The proper expression is "no ifs, ands nor buts"

Substantively, I would like to challenge you regarding your expressed certainty of such specifics.

For example, we could have a top at any time between April 2022 and perhaps March 2023... so the extent of the top (if we actually get one) may well determine how much of a bottom is likely or possible.

Many of us are already somewhat thrown off our ability to maintain some kind of reasonable framework of expectations based on the way that 2021 played out with two tops that were within about 6% of each other... weird as fuck (or maybe awkward?) and maybe not even made more comfortable in having two 50% corrections along the way....

Sure, shit happens, but also is not very comfortable to try to figure out how another potential top (do we say delayed top) might end up playing out and whether it might have a likelihood of a blow off nature to it?

And, even though we likely have some senses that supra $100k may well end up inspiring some kinds of FOMO to kick in, there also could be some actual materiality towards an effectiveness of some of the new financial instruments that have been created for the likely purpose of attempting to keep king daddy down (referring to futures, here - or at least non-bitcoin mechanisms that allow for the placement of downward price pressures on king daddy). 

So I am not going to assume that the various financial instruments are necessarily going to be successful in keeping down king daddy - yet there would still be a question regarding how much they are actually willing to potentially lose (to get reckt) in order to hope that they can be successful and if their getting reckt does not end up contributing to a kind of Streisand effect.. in which there may be inspiration from the masses to increase the level to which some of the BIGGER players end up getting reckt if they are betting against bitcoin and using those various naked shorting mechanisms... and of course, coupled by FUD and perhaps even the use of government coercion, too.. if they can get such cooperation from governing officials/departments.

I am not going to speak with any high levels of certainty, even though I personally believe that bitcoin has been developed strong enough and has increased in various networking effects enough in order to be able to sustain through various additional stronger attacks and to keep a decent amount of its UPwardly trajectory through several of these challenges.. and so even if the fucktwat manipulators continue to have success in keeping BTC prices down.. and let's even presume that they have some ability to continue to accomplish such ongoing suppression until times getting close to the next halvening in 2024 (holy fuck still 2 years out).. they are running a considerable amount of risk in terms of contributing to some worse kinds of UPwards explosions in response to some of the seeming artificialities of ongoing pushing prices down even while there is likely a large enough population of existing HODLers and even new HODLers who are going to continue to stack the real deal into cold storage and to take more and more of that liquidity of actual coins off of the market.... much easier for actual real persons to take immediate and actual possession of his/her coins as compared with any other previous or currently existing form of wealth.. whether talking about gold, property, equities or other ways that wealth is held to empower individuals.


Your prediction shows that you seem to have hardly any fucking clue about what S2F is saying... so it would be difficult for it to be in shambles by March of 2022 unless we were actually in a bear market by that time and going down to some kind of sub $28k levels... I surely have my doubts about that.

Another thing is that March 2022 is about half way through the halvening period, and largely S2F is attempting to project that BTC prices will average $100k for the whole of the halvening period.... so for sure, half way through the halvening period they are way undershooting the projected $100k BTC price.. we can even look at the 104-week moving average and see that currently it is at about $32k.. so the average for the last 2 years is ONLY $32k.. and if we look at the 208-week moving average, we see that it is at about $19,500 (which would be the average for the past 4 years), so for sure, the 104-week moving average already shows an already existing average that is way below $100k, and the 208-week moving average has a decently long way to catch up to get to $100k by the next halvening... but surely it is far from impossible or even "in shambles" to be asserting that underperformance would be a death knell to S2F.... ... even sticking with a relatively historical average of how the 208-week moving average moves up, we are seeing that to be around 75% per year (and last year was around 130%).. we still end up getting to around $88k by May 2024 (look at this projection).. which is hardly in shambles or even problematic to be having to tweak stock to flow in any kind of meaningful way.

Sure an anticipation of a continued supra 75% appreciation of the 208-week moving average in the coming years may well be a bit too presumptuous.. but hardly "in shambles" if it were to either not be met or to end up coming in below expectations.

No, of course it's not ready! Whatever happens will only add to the decade of well-established history of buckling under pressure. That's why I'm patiently accumulating the only store of value guaranteed to be worth at least something into the future -- USD in my safe, federally insured, low yield savings account and stocks. The bitcoin experiment has only proved that there is no other way to financial security one can count on into the future.

Observing small pumps in WO thread...

Explanation

What is going to happen when the money starts to pour into bitcoin from people all over the world realizing that all the pillars of society are crumbling including the financial realm.

Gofundme is teaching the masses about financial sovereignty and trusted third parties BIG TIME right now.

The Bitcoin ecosystem in on the brink of it's biggest stress test so far.

Is it ready?

I guess we can welcome them since it’s their first time we can ignore their “some th” part. I’m sure they will get better with time.

KPMG in Canada adds Bitcoin and shitcoin Ethereum to its corporate treasury.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/kpmg-in-canada-adds-bitcoin-and-ethereum-to-its-corporate-treasury-851778842.html

Explanation