Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4061. (Read 26712678 times)

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Price prediction in a growth phase is a paradox. We are sure that the price is going up in a long enough time. If it is predictable that the price would be up and at X at time T, the smart thing to do would be to buy large amounts at anything
Either Clarke or Asimov wrote a story based around this principle.

In other words, HODL!

Explanation

Less than 44% odds, perhaps?

or

Less than 50% odds?

or are you thinking some other level of probabilities?

There's quite a bit of time between now and the end of the calendar year... gosh 11 months, no?

But I see that so many people seem to be caught up in some kind of mental framework that if the actual high does not happen within the four year fractal.. as scheduled by the pundits, therefore, the odds for the high happening after that same framework has diminished greatly..... or were the odds always not much more than 50/50 anyhow?

Sure, I know that when we had momentum and when we were going from $10k to $64,895.. especially the first time (referring to September 2020 to April 2020), then there were a lot of folks who were asserting that $100k was inevitable in its impending status.. .but a couple of 50% plus corrections along the way has dampened confidences, no?    I know that you are not faking it.. but personally I cannot see how the odds have changed very much between early 2021 late 2021 and now, and it is almost as if the two 50% corrections should have made the ability to go up to get stronger, no  Buy support has been able to catch up to the actual large UPpity moves in BTC price that we have already seen, no?

Not sure we'll see it in 2022, TBH. Who knows...

There's the proudhon post indicator! Good time to buy!

Explanation

That's ridiculous... especially for any of us who know better regarding the various ups and downs that have happened, including that the up that got us into supra $28k started in about September 2020....  

Even if it might be helpful psychologically to consider the bitcoin price in such a way, it comes off as a bit fantasy-landia to characterize it in such a way...

But hey.. you do you, and you have done that before.....


Sure it could go any way, and I doubt that what we want makes very much difference.. the odds seem to be slightly in favor of up in my opinion, and that is not based on what I want... even though what I want happens to coincide with that.


Well, fair enough that you might condition your dca based on staying below a certain price or even based on staying within a price range as you describe it.

I have heard this supposed price range asserted by a variety of others, and surely it seems to be a faulty framing of the matter, and even misleading in some ways - even though factually it is true.

Not that our current price position is not interesting, since we are currently approaching a bounce price of about 30% above the current $32,951 correction low that so many people (smart, dumb and otherwise) were asserting to be inevitably going to be challenged again, it is going to be interesting for me to see if we are able to make it above $46k.. without meaningfully going back to test $32,951.. and it will also be interesting to see if we can get either supra $55k or supra $62k without any meaningful correction.  I do suspect that the odds are pretty high that we are going to have a meaningful correction at one or more of each of those resistance points, and sure, if you are just ignoring it all and just buying all along the way, then cannot really blame you for that - even though there seems to be a whole hell of a lot more going on than having more than a year of supposed flat, as you are nonsensically characterizing the matter...

Might have to batman slap you just to verify whether you have been around the last years, and also batman slap the other various bitcoin naysayers who are spouting out such nonsense - even if they are claiming to be long term bulls.. but spouting out such nonsense and acting as if they largest wealth transfer in history is not happening right in front of their eyes... . .which includes a battle.. not some bullshit fantasy land assertion about supposed flatness..... stability and blah blah blah   ---

Again.. for sure, no problem with your tentative plan to continue to buy BTC for $50 per day.. but that is another question than to be spouting out nonsense that the BTC price has been flat for over a year.


You may well need to zoom out a wee bit to appreciate the context of your supposed channel a wee bit moar better.

we have been is this track since dec 31 2020 that's 402 days of sideways in the 28.8 to 67.5 sector

when we leave this track is time to get excited.

my guess is we do it uppity and we do it this year.

my fingers are crossed for luck!

tremendous green llama ;-D weeeeeeeeee

Don't get too excited everyone, this is nothing but another bouncing dead cat.

100k incoming

dude its side ways and stuck in a 28.8-69k channel been in that channel since late December 2020

now do i guess it leave that channel this year .

yes i do  . then it wont be sideways. it will be as we both want uppity or as we both don’t want debbie downer.

I am prepared for it to leave the channel that it has been in for last 400 plus days.

either way.  but while we stay in the channel i dca 50 a day.

Oh?

This is what you call sideways?





Should I present my question about "how much UP" hypothetical, again?







Anyone?









Anyone?

what you two are talking about...falling asleep with WO open?

tasty

sandwich

Explanation