Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4076. (Read 26711605 times)

a more local view with annotations

dyor

4h


Trends continue until they change. Breakout of obvious downward channel will be obvious I suspect.

D

stronghands

FTFY

the noon wall report?


First Paypal now Facebook tanking hard this week as the tech sector continues to take a beating....along with bitcoin. Meta and Zuckersmuck blew it with 'crypto' and their failed Diem venture, getting into the game far too late said Mr. Saylor, 'They have not embraced bitcoin. That is the problem.'
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-made-a-crucial-mistake-with-bitcoin-microstrategy-ceo-michael-saylor-164904820.html

6M graphs just for something different to look at.

Meta...good grief..or good riddance?


Paypal also...surprising?  ...no.



On to broader legacy indices for perspective. The Dow surprisingly stable and in the black..for now. The FTSE also up over the last six months.



Bitcoin

Long descending channel continues...



If we are going into a bear market..which seems premature to me but what do I know.. and follow past cycles...we could see a 85% draw down from the ATH of $69,000.00...and that would be $10k corn. Will we see that between now and 2024? I sure hope so because if it drops below $25k im all in again. I dont know how I can be more all in than my already all in..but I will figure it out.

Ok..here it is..this is as bad as it can get imho...might as well face it. Do I think its possible? Of course...just about anything is..do I think it likely? I do not. I would love to scoop up some $10k corn again though.    


One bitcoin still appears to equal one bitcoin...so...unsure about all of this. Anyways...

dyor

Guess they still haven't figured out I am done with them.

Explanation

Tile?

Explanation

Well.... if u'r making them lower their fees as well to compete with you.. Then.. THAT IS GREAT NEWS!! CRYPTO CAPITALISM AT ITs FINEST!!!


*edit(): I would do what you do, just to stick it to others! Don't care much of the losses. And if break even, then I'm uber.super.ultra.mega GAME!

 Ok. My strategy of setting retarded low levels on a drained channel to fill it back up again finally resolved with ln.nicehash.com. Took longer than 24 hours with the kelo circle jerk, but finally got it fully rebalanced to my side, where I can start cranking up the fees again.

 Babysat another LOOP connection open, and set fees to 1000/2000 just now - Let's see how long that lasts. Already drained 25% of the liquidity after setting it to 1000/1000 fees. Expecting this one to eventually get shut down because of the way LOOP handles their connections; not sure I'll be able to use my super low pricing strategy to refill the channel my way when it inevitably gets drained to their side...

 Assholes.

Explanation

I think you are exactly right. We have not seen the current fundamental circumstances in play any time in the last 12 years.

It's not even just bullish news.  We are standing on the cliffs edge.  And we are about to go over with no chance of return, and I personally think (as I have said 100s of times) that it is going to be an astonishing transformation, and since Bitcoin *IS* value then the reflection of the coming growth is seen directly on the price.

One way of looking at it..,  Up until now the 4 year halving cycle has been the most important driver for the price.  It has been the direct driving variable change that has had a profound effect on what the coin is worth.  And because it is 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 of 1/2 it is a logarithmic progression.  The halving is exactly the same each time by percent, but NOT by value.  We lost the creation of 25 BTC per block the first time around, and then 12.5, and then 6.25, and the next one will only reduce the subsidy by 3.125 BTC.

So we have seen 93.75% of the magnitude in dollars already be released for the Bitcoin network.  Thus the vast majority of value is out there.  And the halvings as we go forward will be each a logarithmic order smaller than the one before.

At the same time as that inescapable perfect mathematical situation continues humming along we are seeing the demand for the asset standing on the brink of explosive growth. 

So, what I think is about to happen is the forces of the demand for Bitcoin are soon going to weigh MUCH MORE than the forces of supply, and the changes to it.  Demand will happen on a logarithmic curve as well, but I would think one with a different function and shape as the issuance curve.  I think demand = adoption, and adoption curves are famously "S shaped" with a somewhat long slow beginning (You are here! This was us) then a explosive rise in the middle (the majority come onboard), and then a long slow ending (as the last stragglers come online).

I believe when that middle section really gets underway that is going to VASTLY outweight the 4 year supply cycle shocks that have driven the price since inception.  Both because demand will be the stronger force, and as I said above the Supply has already taken ~90% of it's shot! 

The question is where are we on that S shaped curve.  I think we are well into the very front of it, but only at the beginning.  Maybe 10-20% into the explosive middle section.  We will soon see more countries come on board, more businesses, more investment tools (our favorite ETF topic) and just more organic demand from regular users like us.

So no more 4 year cycle.  At least not as the primary driver anymore.  It will take a backseat to demand eventually.  And I think it's going to happen SOON.  As in: I am betting it will happen during THIS cycle.  Or at least begin to.  Of course I could be wrong, and we could have one more boom/bust supply shock thing... but that just does not seen to make any sense to me.

And finally, there *IS* still significant risk of a devastating blow to Bitcoin's price because of geopolitical forces.  If the US Federal Reserve can pull the right strings in our government to try to kill bitcoin we could see a massive drop in value.  This is really the only scenario I see that would cause our fabled 80+% drop.  But it is absolutely a non-zero possibility.  So there is that.  But even then, that will only delay the inevitable and give the enemies of the USA a nice head start.  In some ways it will validate bitcoin my the tacit admission that it is the foe of the Fed that it indeed is.  So even the bad news would be good.

But this is why I did not sell when it got frothy up there this time.  One of the reasons at least.  I decided I would rather not miss the next rise than risk taking any profits.  And frankly I just don't need it yet.  And I think the psychological torture of 2017-2020 prepared me to handle the even bigger $ losses that I can expect this time even IF this is as low as we go...

Anyway.  I think you are right!

niceeeee 👍

I think next bear market will happen before 2024 halving.

Bitcoin will definitely moon before that, it's inevitable.

To much bullish news.

Explanation

Something they said triggered me. And lead me to a strange path of thinking that 'Satoshi' is aliens. And if the inventors planned this that when they come back after 200-300 years and their species will inherit our planet because they have too much wealth. Of them having a big corporate-parliament council and they split 100K bitcoins to each.

Saylor interviews Dorsey...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XdgP25UcHB0

Explanation

Quick bit of advice.  Go ahead and get the big RPi.  The 4gig?  (or is there a bigger one yet?)  The extra memory makes the initial chain validation process much faster.  You want a good strong power supply, and a good energy efficient SSD (and though 1g is fine for now... I would almost say just get the 2 so you don't have that hanging over you eventually... I dunno...).  Some external SSDs (like the M.2 in a little case kinds) are power hogs, but the little usually rectangular ordinary ones tend to be power sippers.  And you most likely want some decent cooling for the little thing.  They do not run badly under normal load... but during sync and other operations these little suckers get pretty dang hot.

This is a really good Podcast for those who enjoy such.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KdmDtqB46Jc&t


Georges St-Pierre, John Danaher & Gordon Ryan: The Greatest of All Time | Lex Fridman Podcast #260

Thanks for chiming in, Bob and cAPS!

My Bitcoin node (Bitcoin Core) has been running for years on a regular Ubuntu desktop workstation. It has Tor transport enabled and working - not sure that means it's behind Tor. I guess it's just a possible alternative.

I think I'm going with Umbrel for now. Gonna run it on a brand new Raspi4. I'm going to order the hardware later today or early tomorrow. I guess this means that my already running node, along with its already downloaded and synced blockchain data on the local Ubuntu drive, will be useless: the LN node will just reload/resync from scratch. Or maybe I will be able to copy at least the raw blockchain data from old node to new LN node, and have the latter "just" verify it. We'll see when the raspi+stuff arrive and I get around to set it up.

I will ask you guys for advice. A lot. You have been warned.