Looks like we're slapping the top of the recent trading range here. I would assume a breakout above $39K would lead to a retest of $43K. I'd probably trim a little at that point of whatever you grabbed at the bottom at $33K if you're a trader. If not, this is still an exciting level as a breakout above $43K would be extremely bullish and I think would probably move us up over $50K. There's a couple resistance points around $53K & $57K after that, but then we'd pretty much be looking at retesting $69K at that point... I'm not sure if we've got the momentum for all of that yet, but I do think we'll probably retest $43K as soon as this week. We might be dependent upon the news cycle to go any further than that. All eyes on Biden regulation as we see where this market wants to go.
Like you kind of mentioned in your mix OgNasty.. I do think that $52/$53k is a kind of interesting resistance point (because it is right around the top of the December 3rd move UP)... I am kind of thinking that we cannot call this bottom of $32,951 as being "in" until we get into the $46k to $48k arena.. and of course, any amount of move up will give us some additional comfort towards being further from $33k - but at the same time, anything before $46k to $48k feels too close for this here cat to start to have confidence that our bottom is "in" for this particular correction. I was tentatively thinking that something like staying above $46k for a week, $48k for more than 4 days or $50k for more than 2 days would all be equivalently sufficient for me to consider that the bottom is "in."
After we get past, our "bottom is in" threshold (if we were to get there?), then probably we can start talking more confidently about retesting our current $69k ATH.. and for me, getting even close to the ATH, such as getting above $62k largely would make the ATH a decently close to being "done deal"
(if we could conclude that moving up from 55% confidence to 65% confidence as being as close to a "done deal" as this here cat might be willing to venture?) including another shot towards getting through a kind of "noman's zone" that did not work out too well last time,** when it was seeming like we were going to fairly easily get close to $80k.. but flopped short of that by about $10k-ish...
**Note... this time I am tentatively considering noman's zone to be between $62k and $92k---- last time, noman's zone seemed to be somewhere between $55k and $80k - and yes, we know that we did not make it through noman's zone last time of course.Last time was not exactly a complete fail because we know that anything can happen, and one of the positives that came out was that surely the bearwhales had to spend quite a bit of resources to get the BTC price to reverse in the midst of noman's zone.. those fucks.... Can they be successful in that deployment of resources again? that is if we were to get there in the coming months? For sure, they do not want us to get there.... not comfortable for them.. and willing to spend a lot of resources to attempt to prevent it.. but let's see..? let's see? let's see?
The next weeks to months are critical
tm.....
I have my doubts about shooting straight-up to something like supra $62k.. but there might be some willingness within the bearwhale camps to allow us (if that's the right way of phrasing it?) to dabble around in the $40k to $52k arena without losing too much confidence that they lost "control" over the situation... but how long can these party poops keep this bad boy down?
For some of these reasons, I am speculating that getting through the $52k to $62k territory could take a few months.. even though we know that there are decent possibilities to short-cut and to go all the way through that $52k to $62k price range without spending so much time in any kind of gradually kind of scenario..
(a funny thing is that sometimes king daddy is able to accomplish gradually/stable blah blah blah.. but sometimes that gradually/stability does not play out so well either).. but still seems like there are going to exist a lot of continued incentives and desires for the bearwhales to battle getting through that $52k to $62k arena, even though the bearwhales would be filled with wet dreams if they could accomplish $69k as the top for the whole of 2022 (including some folks in this thread.. should I name names?...
tempted for sure.... )... but even keeping king daddy below $69k (and have they lost it if we get above $62k?) for the whole of 2022 might be a bit too much for any wet bearwhale dreamer to hope for, even though such a thing is not impossible.
