Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4101. (Read 26711230 times)
January 29, 2022, 08:01:22 AM
January 29, 2022, 07:01:26 AM
January 29, 2022, 06:01:21 AM
January 29, 2022, 05:55:46 AM
arizona is the next el salvador 
Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?
Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.
Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.
can you imagine all the future fuckwits like future CSW or future Roger yapping in their ears!.. "we're the real slim shady!" what a nightmare that would be!
January 29, 2022, 05:01:20 AM
January 29, 2022, 04:53:49 AM
arizona is the next el salvador
Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?
Same way they would have worked out which one to pick from the previous fork in 2017.
Firstly, the one that retains the name Bitcoin, and secondly, the one that isn't full of a bunch of a stupid idiots.
January 29, 2022, 04:29:03 AM
arizona is the next el salvador
Just had a thought, and i wonder if any drafting the legislation have thought of it, what would happen if we have another hard fork, which Bitcoin chain would be considered legal tender?
January 29, 2022, 04:21:02 AM
@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status. In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.
I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year. I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."
Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021.. (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022. It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios.
Although the rebel in me likes the idea of "fuck you status" it still has the intrinsic problem of being related to "money" in this context, to me status comes from who you are based on your actions, backing your claims, admitting mistakes, where the value is measured in truth and integrity.
January 29, 2022, 04:01:24 AM
January 29, 2022, 03:01:20 AM
January 29, 2022, 02:22:57 AM
arizona is the next el salvador
January 29, 2022, 02:01:21 AM
January 29, 2022, 01:23:28 AM
Sleepy Joe finally woke up to the fact the money printing days with unlimited military spending will be over when Bitcoin goes mainstream.
January 29, 2022, 01:01:26 AM
January 29, 2022, 12:01:21 AM
January 28, 2022, 11:58:52 PM
@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status. In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
Well, I have been using $2 million as tentative entry level fuck you status for a bit more than a year now, and I am also using the 208-week moving average to now assert that entry level fuck you status is just over 100 BTC... (you can see that here) and for sure, my projection out of the 208-week moving average might be a bit too ambitious including that it has gone up about 75% per year on average for the past 8 years, but it may well be better to taper that 75% per year down.. .. just to error a bit more on the conservative side.
I don't consider it very helpful to be measuring from top to top, even though greater exponential runs do cause the 208-week moving average to move up at a greater pace.. and for sure the opposite is true, especially if the BTC price starts to get close to the 208-week moving average, then it is NOT going to be moving up as much per year. I would not expect anyone to project out and to get caught up on their numbers without attempting to monitor on a regular basis and also acknowledging that there might be some "in the best case scenarios going on."
Regarding a discussion about whether the top is in at $69k, you are correct that on December 16, I had projected that to be 45% odds of that having had already happened in 2021.. (you can see that here).. but even if we lock me into saying that I said that there were 55% odds that the top would be higher than $69k, on December 16, I was also saying that there were around 24% odds that the peak would be in the 1st quarter of 2022. It is quite likely that i need to change those numbers since we are almost half way through the 1st quarter of 2022.. and you are right that it would be quite a weird scenario if we were to get supra $69k and also a top in the 1st quarter of this year... so some of those kinds of scenarios are appearing more implausible with the passage of time.. especially 1st quarter ATH and finish of the cycle scenarios.
January 28, 2022, 11:32:13 PM
please coordinate the actions of regulators !
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/biden-administration-to-regulate-bitcoin-as-a-matter-of-national-security%3A-report
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/biden-administration-to-regulate-bitcoin-as-a-matter-of-national-security%3A-report
January 28, 2022, 11:01:21 PM
January 28, 2022, 10:33:02 PM
@jjg: "In 4 years, around 3BTC will be 1/3 of fuck you status. In 8 years, less than 1 BTC will be fuck you status.. "
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
maybe too ambitious, especially the first number (assuming it refers to fu status of $3 mil).
the last cycle (counting from the top to a potential top) of 2017-2021 was a lot of volatility, not much gains (from top to top).
I found that you already assigned 45% to that it was, indeed, the top at 69K with more than 50% chance if we don't top out in Q1 (which look to be not happening, realistically).
I agree, but to assign a more bullish pattern to the next cycle (top to top:2021-2025) is, perhaps, premature, although it is very possible.
We would have to go 4.82X (from top to top) vs this cycle 3.48X. same ballpark, but would not fit the diminishing return pattern (if there is such a pattern).
January 28, 2022, 10:31:56 PM
Well in the past few years, whenever the MSM would go big on talking positively about Bitcoin on live TV in order to raise awareness (e.g., Mike Novogratz being trotted out to wax love for Bitcoin, the Winklevii being interviewed about Bitcoin, an SNL comedy skit about Bitcoin, Ellen talking about Bitcoin on her talk show, Elon Musk on SNL talking about Bitcoin and Doge), it would be right before a massive bull trap incoming. That's always been part of the whale insider playbook. They just love to trap the n00bs.
[/quote]
Torque...called the top.
Jump to: