Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4118. (Read 26711563 times)

Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year.

So very true. That's my only regret too. Had I invested what I could have invested at the time I bought my first BTC (2015), I would now own about an order of magnitude (10x) more coins than I currently own.

This is a lesson for all Bitcoin noobs that read this: don't hesitate, invest a generous amount. Don't make the same mistake many of us did...



The highlighted part is the most important for a HoDLer. Never sell any amount of BTC, unless you will immediately use the fiat to pay for something you absolutely need. Few understand this. Selling your precious BTC just to fill a bank account with fiat is a stupid move in the long term. You may feel you have "locked in some profits" in the short term, especially when there's a dip (like now), but when Bitcoin reaches and exceeds 6 digits and beyond, you will realise the stupid mistake you've made.

Sure... Even non-miners are aware of some of the supply chain issues and even some historical reliance on questionable hardware suppliers.. so for sure some of the miners have been considering ways to attempt to be become more vertically integrated.  

I do gather that you, richie, are inclined to follow the price follows hashrate nonsense, but you have found a reason for an exceptions, and there are all kinds of exceptions that pretty much swallow the price follows hashrate baloney.... whether we are analyzing from the price side or we get into miner behaviors in regards to how they manage their stash or how they manage their business.  we know in recent times, there has been quite a bit of influence of the ideas of Michael Saylor on the mining scene.. and I am talking about the use of debt in order to attempt to hold more coins.. which likely contributes to additional "artificial" (or would you call it an exception) upwards pressures on BTC price.


Your way of discussing several of the matters and your trade offs does cause me a decent amount of concern - especially in terms of your ability to HODL through potential tough times.

For sure, there is a lot of empirical evidence to show that lump sum investing has tended to pay off even better than DCA - especially when the buying was upon dips.. but we can never really know the extent to which a dip is over.. so there tends to be some value in having some strategies besides lump sum, such as an ability to continue to buy on further dips... otherwise you just have to HODL  through the whole dip period, if it ends up coming and taking a long time to resolve...and hopefully you would not end up panicing in the meantime.

Personally, since you did a pretty decent lump sum investment, maybe you should plan to carry out a DCA plan at any time that the BTC price get's close to your buy-in price.. even if your DCA amount is ONLY $10 per week (maybe $100 per week would be better?).. it might give you some peace of mind if we ever go below your average buy price.

Usually the plan for having at least a 4-year plan would be that if you bought at the top of the cycle then you would still have pretty decent chances of at least being profitable after 4 years.. maybe not extremely profitable, but at least not in the red.. and there are no guarantees of that, either, even though BTC's investment thesis does seem to be quite a bit stronger now than it was 7-8 years ago.

Regarding cashing out, sure of course you might want to attempt to time tops somewhat, but you still gotta be careful about cashing out too much because where you going to put it that is better than BTC?  You could consider cashing out more incrementally such as quarterly, yearly or some timeline variation that is comfortable, but you might need to be careful that you might end up taking out at the wrong times.. but sure if you cash out a quarter or a years worth of expected expenses, then that would likely be reasonable.

You know about the 4% per year theory regarding cashing out too, right?  That has traditionally been the guidance for traditional investments, even though I do believe with BTC you could get away with larger percentages depending on how you value your holdings.  Also, if you are planning not to cash out any BTC for 5 years, you do have 5 years to figure out those kinds of matters, but you could attempt to project out values and cash out plans in terms of best case scenarios, worse case scenarios and even medium case scenarios.. and for sure there is value to give some serious considerations to the worse case scenarios, even though if they are not really very likely it is better to have a way of keeping in mind a range of scenarios while focusing more of your attention on more likely scenarios and perhaps revisiting the projections from time to time to see if you might need to tweak them.

Regarding your cold storage, you should check them a few times a year to make sure that you understand your access and your recovery and if you might have back up ways to recover.. and once you go through the process a few times, you might be able to just do it once a year.. depending on how complicated that you have made it for yourself.. ..but for sure both complication and too much simplicity could be enemies.. so some kind of balance is going to be preferred.

To AverageGlabella - the only regret anybody has on this forum is that they did not buy more Bitcoin at (insert any date here)

I have my cold wallet stash which I add to periodically and use Bitcoin as my savings and deposit account adding spare fiat when available and only taking some out when absolutely needed. Loans are still cheap and the first call for unexpected day to day outgoings.
 

Thanks to Jay for marking my homework.
I'll take it as a C+ then.

BJA was billyjoeallen who has not been seen here for a long time along with stolfi. (who claimed to own no bitcoin - only academic interest)
probably for security reasons.

Hmm, i don't even believe in any "miner costs control price" dynamics. It can only have a tiny fraction of influence on the price, i'm not that dumb
Seems like the good ol' misunderstanding, but i am not too surprised, because i picked out a wee aspect of a complex system, where one output parameter results in the property "price".
But the initial thought was quite simple and might have mislead you in believing that i look at the market in a simple way. Well, sometimes i do, when i try to explain bitcoin to noobs (rarely) but that's a whole different story. To be honest, my understanding of market details and their dependencies is very limited, but every now and then some new understandings click into place, and your detailed posts about the matter also contribute to this more often than not.

Explanation

Yes.. UnDerDoG81..you seem quite intent upon selling your BTC at the bottom..   and looking for reasons to do so.

Good luck with that.  You are going to need it.


Of course, it is hard to see the upward slope while we are in the midst of the upwards slope of a hockey stick.. which seems to be our current location.. even if it does not feel like such.

I am not saying that I know when the next burst in price, but even if we get a 10x from here (or take whatever exponential variation that you like) we are likely to get some corrections contained therein too.

If vapourminer is considering $5 million to $50 million to $500 million per BTC.. of course, we are not going straight from here to there.. it will take a while and for sure $5 million is way easier than those later numbers because $5 million gets us to about 10x of gold's market cap.. which is likely fairly easy peasy given the whole macro scene, bitcoin's fundamentals and bitcoin's network effects so far.. even though it could take a while to get to 100x and 1000x of gold's market cap (which is the ballpark of what $50 million and $500 million represent) seems like it is going to be a wee bit more difficult.. even though 100x seems reasonably doable..

 I am not sure if we could make it in less than 12 years to get to $50 million (100x of gold).. but $5 million should be reasonably reachable within less than 12 years.. and perhaps even in the next cycle.. so 4-8 years (wide range I know... but what do you expect when there is a certain amount of SOMA involved therein?).

err.. whats a "BJA" ?

i just knoooow ill regret this

My plan is to earn as much Bitcoin as I can and converting my fiat from my job to Bitcoin after I get paid each month which is not a big amount after my deductions for my daily costs. My job is not something that can be done for Bitcoin atm it is a industry dominated by fiat. I am keeping separate addresses atm for my different earnings because of tax reasons and privacy. I will probably be replying here often when I start to panic

This was months in the planning I just got lucky with the recent drop! I have a spreadsheet as long as me and many difficult conversations with people when planning for this. I know that I will have to take some out sometimes but this is why I wanted a cold wallet which is hard to access and a hardware wallet which can be accessed more easily but without compromising my security. The hardware wallet will be withdrawn for anything that might pop up in life. I might take occasional profits when life is being hard but I have tried to promise to myself no matter how difficult the market becomes I keep that Bitcoin in the cold storage.

You are not helping to cause any reassurance that the mining costs directs BTC spot price.. There is a lot more going on with the BTC price regardless of that one factor, and you should know that by now... price following hashrate is not reflected in the empirical evidence, but hey, you can believe whatever you like and draw whatever correlations you like including cause and effect directions, too..

And for sure it is even more problematic when you pick such a minority factor in terms of attempting to figure out BTC price dynamics when there are other factors... as I already mentioned .. including stock to flow, 4 year fractal, exponential s-curve adoption based on Metcalfe principles and networking effects (yes mining is one of the 7 network effects.. so it is part of something to consider but surely no leader)....

I think that you are going to have a tough time if you are too overly dependent on your miner costs controls the price narrative, and also likely to miss out on some other important ways of attempting to understand BTCs price... .. but hey.. do what you like... you are not going to get me to go along with such shadows on the wall theories in regards to the miners role in BTC price dynamics.



you and BJA too..   What a coincidence.



Not for BJA.. I think that he gave up around $500-ish.


The going to zero scenario seems to be getting smaller and smaller and smaller with the passage of time.



Aren't we already at moon?

I mean sure.. we are likely to go up more, but how could you even imagine such a great scenario already having had played out...

This is amongst the better of scenarios.. seems to me.. how could you really expect much better?  except maybe each of us would like to be younger to continue to enjoy.. but still...

I know that a lot of people still cannot recognize the power and importance of BTC.. but is that really a problem?  The message is still getting out there and sinking in.. continuously... with more and more people realizing BTC's place on the Gresham's law hierarchy.  It's difficult to paint a better scenario -especially for an open sourced revolutionary concept such as bitcoin.. accounting for both the price movement and the passage of time.

you seem to have a pretty good handle on this. decently long timeline, still have fiat for emergencies and have accepted you may even have to liquidate a bit here and there for unforeseen reasons.

basically hodl for all you can. but dont forget to take occasional profit when it presents itself. makes the longer term down markets much more enjoyable as you just sit back, smile and enjoy the ride.

seat belts optional but highly recommended.

This is what I have been preaching so obviously I agree. Along with the idea that BTC might just surprise us with one more big jolt up. The whole S2F model was predicting the 100k.  And I have though the whole time we end up breaking the model one of two ways.  Either by a tighter series of smaller tops, and less dramatic bottoms happening at a slightly higher frequency.  Or that basic same idea but with one more giant (supercycle-esque) upward push.

By the way... the S2F model is NOT broken yet (despite popular belief).  Just the 100k by end of year prediction.  For it to remain valid at this point we will need to see a third dramatic top in this "cycle".  I don;t think it happens that way though.

I also think as a corollary those expecting the giant crypto winter or 80-90% drops from the ATH (or even 65-70%) will be disappointed (?) in a similar way.  Or that we will be in a bear 'till the next halving.  And those predictions have been made here RECENTLY with even the 10k-14k prices mentioned etc.  And twitter is COVERED in that talk right now...

Here is a recent headline in the normie media!

'Crypto winter' fears send chills to battered Bitcoin faithful
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/crypto-winter-fears-send-chills-to-battered-bitcoin-faithful

Do stability exist? Can a currency realize stabilize?

Even EURUSD pair is quite crazy sometimes.

Even BTC stabilize, USD will never be stable. Crazy events in the world will make the price go up and down.

The life of btc holders will always have huge up and downs. Volatility will become smaller, but we will see at least some 20% up and down in a year for sure, just like gold and other assets and currencies.

I think that is the biggest things for me when I was going through my panic. Something which gives the freedom to transfer as much as you want without any one else interfering is something that will always be valued and that is why I am confident Bitcoin will continue to be valued in the future.

Its easier to say to relax than to do it. I nearly backed out of this a couple of times but I can confirm most of my panic is gone. I do have a lot of nerves still and I have found myself looking at the news about Bitcoin more closely then before which has not been healthy, It has not been 24 hours yet and I have had multiple news induced panics. I had a big think about this before doing it and I planned on doing it before the recent crash in price which I am not sure how my mental health would have survived after just depositing all that money into Bitcoin but I think I might have bought at the exact right time. I cannot see Bitcoin dipping like it has recently again.

I am not rich by any measure but percentage wise I am all in but the emergency funds I mentioned. It was big enough for the bank to have a problem with I do not know if this was because it was cryptocurrency from a well known exchange or if it was because of the amount maybe both? The guy on the phone was concerned I did not understand the risks of cryptocurrency more then he was worried about the amount. I would ask who your Bitcoin friendly bank is but I do not think I will be needing them anymore.

Thank you for that great advise I have most of it on a hardware wallet atm but I might think about putting some in a air gapped wallet and keep a 50/50 split between the two just because I am a little nervous about messing up and losing it. I am confident in my security but when you invest completely in you start to doubt whether you are secure enough. I will be spreading the word most of my family know I am invested in Bitcoin but they do not know I am invested all of my money into it I will not be sharing that information.

Yes I have been invested in Bitcoin for years but I have sold at times and missed out on the bull runs a couple of times. The main thing for me was changing circumstances in my personal life which led me to think f*ck it and go all in. I was sick of saving up money and then the adjustment of cost of living taking the benefit of saving up all these years paying into a pension which is not going to benefit me much because of the inflation of fiat. I came into Bitcoin thinking I could make a little but I never expected to be investing all of my savings into it. My opinion of Bitcoin like yours has changed over the years I was very excited about Bitcoin at 1st but over the years I have become less interested but I needed a waking up to reignite that passion and clarity that Bitcoin is special and could be the reason why I am not working at 75 years old because my pension is shit and inflation has f*cked me.

I hope to keep this investment in for at least 5 years I took my age into count and I have a number which I would take half out. I think I will look to keep a % of my wealth in Bitcoin at all times and only withdraw from it when I need to because I have seen how inflation is destroying my wealth in anything except Bitcoin.

I do not know if I have made the right decision yet and I guess I wont know that until I keep the investment for 5 years or I hit my target before then. I have been a slave all my life looking to make as much money as possible working overtime regularly so I will have a comfortable life when I am no longer able to work and my children will have a good start in life but the recent inflation and taxes because of covid and the adjustment to cost of living has proven I was living a pipe dream and the only way I will be able to provide for the future is if I take more risks.

I had a small amount of Bitcoin anyway but I would have had to hope for Bitcoin to hit a very price to become comfortable in later life. That is why I wanted to invest a large amount and hopefully bring that target price of Bitcoin down to a more realistic level. We are no where near yet but I hope in 5 years we will be or close.

Explanation

While this is basically true, it's worth noting that mining expansion has typically been limited by equipment availability (once things got past the initial "anyone interested in this thing?" phase). This has lead to mining not quite following price which may partly explain the misapprehension of price following hash.

There is something that bothers me for some time. If someone knows the answers, it would be nice to share them. It is about the derivate markets. It is clear that the cash settled futures contract divert money from acutal invesment in Bitcoin, thus creating an artificial paper liquidity. My quiestion is whether what is happening on the derivate exchanges can lead to a pump/dump of the spot exchanges? It is supposed that derivate exchanges follow the spot exchanges with their index price, not vice  versa, but is this the reality? I have the gut feeling that the spot exchange traders look at the derivate exchanges and if they see a dump there, they also sell. Which is illogical especially for the cash settled contracts. Because nobody can transfer a paper bitcoin and sell it on a spot exchange. But the daily traders have proved many times they have no clue about... anything, even basic math. Also, I wonder if Binance has a physical futures contracts like bakkt,  because a lot of derivate trade is going on there lately and it seems to has an impact on the spot price.

Explanation