Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4116. (Read 26711515 times)

Dude, go back and look at your history. Your posts were all bullish AF as recently as November... ?

@Torque - And what if...

Paranoia Corner

The IMF is so pissed off by Bukele that they will actively suppress* bitcoin, already in a rough spot at the moment, just to be able to say "We told you! Guys, see what happens when you leave good, reliable fiat for crazy internet money? Poor country's rekt now."


* Short paper btc, buy physical and dump, etc.

I hope Nayib in turn urges the IMF to go suck of a bag of dicks.

Q: "When do I push the BUY button?"

Unclear words of wisdom by Artie 'Sharkey' Hayes ;-)

https://blog.bitmex.com/bottomless/

TL;DR: I want to see 28.5k to call a bottom. Will it actually happen? Not necessarily. Look at corporate bond rate spread for a glance into the near future.

Explanation

gaming the close on futures is illegal.  However gaming the spot price in bitcoin is hardly enforceable...

Explanation

Can paper derivatives effect the underlying? Yes. Can it get to the point where the tail's wagging the dog? Possible, and therere examples in history when that happened, but i don't believe that it's happening with BTC.

Just a hypothetical, lets image you have 100.000 cash settled futures contracts which you got at an average price of $40.000/BTC, they expire today and lets say they use exchange's XYZ spot as a reference rate.
Imagine that current spot on XYZ is $37.500.
1-You don't do anything, Futures settle at $37,5k, you loose $2.500 per contract so you're down $250MM total. That sucks!

2-You look at XYZ and notice that the ask side of the book is pretty thin, you estimate that there will only be BTC5.000 for sale between $37,5k and $42,5k. You transfer $200MM to XYZ and buy everything in sight until $42.5k.
=You're successful and price closes at $42,5k. You're up $2,5k per contract or $250M from futures, but you bought BTC5k for $200MM, so you end up with $50MM and BTC5k profit.
=You're not successful and market actually moves against you and settles at $35k. You lost $500MM on futures, and paid $200M for BTC5k which are now only worth $175MM. -525MM REKT

And it works the other way around. If you sold futures, and then try to short the spot to bring it down so you're more profitable.

Problem is you need to corner the market to be able to pull this off, and there are always bigger whales. Futures platforms are not that dumb too, so theyre using weighted averages across multiple exchanges as a reference rate https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cryptocurrency-indices/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html

There are hedge fund market makers and then there are youtube daily traders that cant do basic math. Don't confuse the two.

BAKKT is not even on a map anymore, do they even still offer BTC futures? Binance is currently the biggest dog and believe they're BTC settled. https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-futures

Edit: fillippone popped in right on time, he has a whole thread on futures https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-btc-futures-but-were-afraid-to-ask-5188060

Badly needed hopium:



Katie Wood Sees one Bitcoin worth 1.36 Millions in 2030, and here explains why.

Seriously though, there's this saying that goes "verify, don't trust" that applies to people on TikTok too, actually it applies to anything anyone says.

Explanation

Michael Saylor announced his intention to hold BTC on Microstrategy's balance sheet well before doing so. He then offered to buy back the shares of any existing shareholders who were not happy with this new policy. He displayed exemplary transparency. No mention of leverage.

This information is readily found in the public domain, so even the slightest bit of digging would show that this guy called Pablo on TikTok is full of shit.

Internet suicides are always so underwhelming.  I wish you the best sir.  But I do not see this place as all that toxic... You should have been an a mac vs pc usenet group... or early linux kernel mailing lists.  'Round here people speak their mind and call each other out of their perceived BS... It's not that bad.

The point you were making had some merit.  Saylor is a great asset to the bitcoin community, but that makes him a powerful point of failure as well.  But the point  being made back was also good.  Since he is the head of a publicly traded company he cannot exactly do a rug pull.

And what do you suggest, that he cannot sell when he chooses to just because he has a big position?

I want Bitcoin to remain as unregulated as possible.

I may have mislead the bulk of you in what I meant in regards to miner's revenue and difficulty/hashrate.

The point was much deeper than hashrate, mining infrastructure has always dictated what equipment is available to the public. If it weren't for the lack of BFL Jalapenos I would probably not heard of Bitcoin for another year after I did.
Bitcoin is an peer-to-peer electronic "cache" system. It is a distributed ledger that stores data across the world. The price to pay to store information in the blockchain is paid by tx fee. The mining equipment and companies/people that are willing to store the database and run the software to support the network of transactions get rewarded with BTC. Currently the price to mine 1 BTC is ~$24,000. The price of Bitcoin is too high according to this data. Fortunately the supply is less than the demand thus affording the price to be higher than what it "costs" to mine.
Yes speculation plays a role but it is mainly driven by the mining infrastructure. Supply chain disruptions have had a reasonable effect on what should have been escalating difficulty thus driving cost of mining higher.

Also Lightning network turned Bitcoin into POS; robbing miners of the tx fees since those txs on LN aren't on-chain. Likely this did not have much difference but worth noting

Men this place has become so toxic. It was just a question of what others think. But the bashing was predictable. Jay is on my ignore list for a long time already so I ignore his toxic bs... Only a handful members are worth reading their posts nowadays...

I clicked on your link and I was reminded why I never visit Twitter - the comments by anti-bitcoiners demonstrate quite depressingly how little people understand what bitcoin is, why it was created and what it is going to achieve. We have a lot of work to do to change minds, but at least the likes of Bukele are  pushing things forward. I just hope that other countries in similar positions to El Salvador have the courage to follow suit before pressure from the IMF and other actors becomes too much for El Salvador to bear on its own. We could do with several more South American presidents taking a leaf from Bukele's book.

For some reason i was thinking that watching that shitshow BSv fall apart would be more enjoyable. Instead it's like watching cult followers coming outside after the cult has collapsed, they're scared, they don't know what to do next, they reveal the true cost of the cult on themselves and their families, and they're asking for forgiveness. At least he had the intelligence to finally open his eyes, but as you said he's still oblivious to the true root cause of his failure, that he built on a closed/centralized chain.

Explanation

Well I am glad that you stated your position more specifically, and surely I am not proclaiming that any of us will be able to articulate the many ways that bitcoin price moves in one direction or another whether we are talking about short-term or long term, but those fairly simplified assertions that BTC price is lead by hashrate seem quite wanting in terms of their explanations and I am glad to hear that are not falling in that camp.  

For sure, even if we might be asserting that BTC price does not necessarily follow hashrate or mining costs, for sure, for whatever reasons, there are going to be short-term correlations, and for sure a decently large numbers of miners are motivated by either current price or their speculations about future price, whether short-term, long-term or speculating about various aspects of operating their business that might also have some relationships to BTC price movements.. and for sure uncertainties too.. that are not just about BTC price, directly - such as energy costs or like you mentioned, cost and availability of some kinds of equipment or parts - or maybe another somewhat unrelated cost that you mentioned a while back.. the cost of wood to build a shed.. for example..

Explanation