Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4131. (Read 26712326 times)
January 24, 2022, 01:16:27 AM
Jesus ^^^ what a bunch of bears!
January 24, 2022, 01:13:30 AM
January 24, 2022, 01:01:31 AM
January 24, 2022, 12:59:13 AM
January 24, 2022, 12:54:23 AM
The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago
Source on this?
I'm following the developments quite closely, and know that NATO isn't touching Ukraine with a 10-ft pole over angering Russia.
The word I was looking for was 'infiltrated', hence the quote marks around "invaded". This started in 2013-2015, through NED (National Endowment for Democracy), a CIA front. Russia argues that it was NED grants for the Euromaidan mass protests that forced Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych from power in 2015.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Endowment_for_Democracy#Reaction
You can find a lot of information about what's really going on here (mainstream media is mostly propaganda):
https://thegrayzone.com/category/ukraine/
The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?
Well, you have made your position and allegiances clear. I remember during the (second? I think?) gulf war. I used to go to an auto shop run by Kurds. Their position on the war and the US involvement in it was extremely unique amongst folks from the middle east.
Everyone has their allegiances.
This is not about my allegiances, just look at a map, think about recent history since the Soviet Union era, and try to imagine how NATO would react if the tables were turned, for example Russian nuclear missile silos in Canada.
January 24, 2022, 12:39:19 AM
Thanks. I better sell my 1 ETH then.
Sell ETH for METH.
January 24, 2022, 12:04:21 AM
[edited out]
.imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish).
Wow.. your best case scenario is pretty lame. Ever wonder why you fail/refuse to adequately prepare for UP? Part of the reason seems to be your lack of imagination regarding UPside scenarios... I suppose that you have been falling off your seat too.. for the whole time between about February and April that we went above $40k.. and then the second time around between about September and November was probably quite the shocker for you, too? No?
I still think that this is not a description of the bull market continuation, but something new.
We will see. We are still in the battle for the greatest wealth transfer in history, so don't get too lulled into some kind of a flat scenario.. which seems to be your tendency (except for times when you are willing to call the bottom.. remember when we were around $29k in July-ish and you called lower $20ks as if they were inevitable.. and also you stated that you would not be surprised to have a decent spike below that into the mid $10k-s.. something like $15.5k-ish, right?
Careful with trying to reinvent the wheel too much here with your seemingly out of touch theories and failing/refusing to account for 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal (except you said that ended in April) and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.
In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense. Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).
Yeah.. that's not totally unreasonable if you at least have some guidance in connection to your reluctancies regarding ongoing BTC UPside scenarios... but seems to me that you have been in that mindset (and seemingly inadequate upside preparations) several times already.. where you had been fighting the upside scenarios, and they end up happening anyhow.. in spite of your ongoing reservations. You frequently suggest that you have not been hurt financially by such, which seems quite implausible to me... for example, are you buying BTC now? most likely not... most likely you are waiting.. and sure that is your choice. Nobody is going to stop you from doing what you believe is best to protect you.. both financially and psychologically.
➥ And finally, if you want to try your hand at bitcointalk history, take the Quiz.
That was a nice little quiz.. .and I only got a bit over half of the answers correct, so the questions raised some subjects that I had not really thought about before going through the quiz.
January 24, 2022, 12:01:24 AM
January 23, 2022, 11:01:24 PM
January 23, 2022, 10:45:54 PM
Top Scientists conspired to cover up lab leak investigation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
... same stand-up guys/"scientists"/ "virologists" pushing the death jabs into you idiots
more in depth
Quote
Scientists believed Covid leaked from Wuhan lab - but feared debate could hurt ‘international harmony’
Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so
Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.
Emails to Dr Anthony Fauci show ‘likely’ explanation identified at start of coronavirus pandemic, but there were worries about saying so
Leading British and US scientists thought it was likely that Covid accidentally leaked from a laboratory but were concerned that further debate would harm science in China, emails show.
An email from Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of the Wellcome Trust, on February 2 2020 said that “a likely explanation” was that Covid had rapidly evolved from a Sars-like virus inside human tissue in a low-security lab.
The email, to Dr Anthony Fauci and Dr Francis Collins of the US National Institutes of Health, went on to say that such evolution may have “accidentally created a virus primed for rapid transmission between humans”.
But a leading scientist told Sir Jeremy that “further debate would do unnecessary harm to science in general and science in China in particular”. Dr Collins, the former director of the US National Institutes of Health, warned it could damage “international harmony”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/01/11/scientists-believed-covid-leaked-wuhan-lab-feared-debate-could/
... same stand-up guys/"scientists"/ "virologists" pushing the death jabs into you idiots
more in depth
What an utter nonsense.
Post your crap elsewhere, please.
No wonder BTC price crashes.
Hopefully BTC will go up again when your crap is deleted.
Saying it's nonsense doesn't make it so, disprove the claims or get the fuck out of our thread.
Because you need to prove it!
It's called science! (but are you afraid of science?)
If you say: I need to prove your BS claim, everyone could make up some unproven BS claims and get away with it.
If bananaunana, whoever that little prick is, claims that it's nonsense he will have to prove that by, for example, find a source that debunks Marcuses sources.
You are a little prick.
I'm not a scientist and I don't need to prove any pseudo-science 'sources' especially your 'death jabs' accusation. If you have problems to do scientific research I'm very sorry for you. But here is a source.
If you say 'death jabs' you need to say 'mega death virus'
You can still buy a banana for 1 BTC each!
What the fuck are you talking about you little idiot prick.
I have never ever said "death jab" or anything remotely like that. In fact, if I wasn't already immune from having covid I would probably be vaccinated by now.
Always question someone's quotes!
And no, he (Marcus) provided links to his sources, sources that can not immediately be discarded as crackpots.
If you claim that it's nonsense you will have to prove that by, for example, find a source that debunks Marcus's sources.
You seem to have problems knowing who you are debating with and what you are debating.
I don't have to disprove weak sources, people making claims have to prove it. If you claim that it's nonsense you will have to prove that by, for example, find a source that debunks Marcus's sources.
You seem to have problems knowing who you are debating with and what you are debating.
It was explained to you already.
I'm criticizing you for not refuting his (Marcus) claims, and just say "What an utter nonsense... Post your crap elsewhere, please.",
But it's true, one of his crap post is now vanished. Having said that, the claim that the virus is man made/manipulated and comes from the Wuhan lab is not particularly far fetched and is being put forward as the most possible origin of the virus in many reputable news sources, something you would have known if you knew how to google or read a newspaper.
It's a very weak claim, you know, like WMD in iraq you know. If you make a claim, please prove it sufficient. If you don't prove it, it's an accusation.
I'm guessing, based on how you "debate" that you are quite young and/or immature, I would therefore suggest that you leave this thread, grow older and hopefully wiser, and come back in say, ten tears from now, and apologize.
I'm just selling bananas for 1BTC each. It's in my signature. If you are interested, plz let me know. And no, I won't apology for questioning weak claims.
Until then, fuck of.
Edited.
Lol, are you unfriendly! Edited.
January 23, 2022, 10:41:18 PM
but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200
When I look at the heatmap, it looks to me like we have first to go below the 200-week moving average before we go back up sustainably.
I believe that Raja_MBZ was presuming something very similar back in May/June when he sold most (if not all) of his BTC at $55k.. but the 200-week average was lower than $14k at that time. I am starting to think that Raja_MBZ was also not a very good example because I had stated that he got into BTC BIG around that same time, and the next thing you know he was saying that he sold everything.. so largely, he seems to be trying to find an entry point rather than having had gotten in below $10k (for example) and made a killing..
Anyhow, for sure we have had both downs and ups since May 2021, and we have not gotten very close to the 200-week moving average, since then either.. even though we did get close to the 100-week moving average a couple of times in the past 8 months (in about May/June/July.. and then just now in recent times, since the 100-week moving average is around $31k currently).
In other words, you should even see from that linked above information that the 200-week moving average does not get met by the spot price very frequently or very easily.. so your assertion that BTC has to go below the 200-week moving average before it can be capable of going up is almost the opposite of what happens, is likely to happen or needs to happen.... It's like you are presuming that we are in a bear market.. and sure maybe there is nothing wrong with that, even though it's a pretty BIG (and likely premature) presumption.
Sure the spot price could go below the 200-week moving average, but it seems quite a ways from anything as close as high in likelihood as you seem to be making it out to be.
January 23, 2022, 10:01:32 PM
January 23, 2022, 09:56:37 PM
I do not see a strong position as to what comes in the short term. But he thinks it's going up, and that the anxiety we are experiencing right now is designed to make us sell or buy.
Quote
"There's only one mistake when you have made the right decision is to get panicked out of your position. Don't panic."
-The Creed of the Bagholder
-The Creed of the Bagholder
January 23, 2022, 09:32:32 PM
I have trouble following all the crypto news, but what do you mean by "ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH" ? Isn't the point of ETH 2.0 to go to a staking formula, and thus not a release but rather the opposite, more ETH staked ?
Staking is already happening but staked ETH2s are currently locked up in validators and can't be moved. A hard fork later this year (although given how slow Ethereum development is, it might be sometime in 2024) will allow those coins to be moved. Staking started in late 2020 when ETH was like $500, there's a good chance that substantial profit-taking will happen once withdrawals from validators are allowed. Unless it goes back below $500 by then.
Thanks. I better sell my 1 ETH then.
January 23, 2022, 09:01:24 PM
January 23, 2022, 08:28:16 PM
This is exactly like it.
I have become less and less agreeable to three-wheelers over the years. Chopped VWs were really the only ones I ever thought worthwhile.
I do give a pass for those physically unable to ride a proper motorcycle. But there are better options even for many of them.
His grandmother gave it to him to sell and get a real bike (he bought his first starter bike from me cheap a few years ago).
She bought it to keep riding in her 80's!
She got a few more years of wind in her hair out of it and I respect her for that.
I've never been a fan of trikes but they still beat the shit out of cars.
I think I would ride one of these if I couldn't balance a bike anymore.
*20 pages to go!
Can't argue with one iota of that. Good deal all around.
January 23, 2022, 08:19:15 PM
This is exactly like it.
I have become less and less agreeable to three-wheelers over the years. Chopped VWs were really the only ones I ever thought worthwhile.
I do give a pass for those physically unable to ride a proper motorcycle. But there are better options even for many of them.
His grandmother gave it to him to sell and get a real bike (he bought his first starter bike from me cheap a few years ago).
She bought it to keep riding in her 80's!
She got a few more years of wind in her hair out of it and I respect her for that.
I've never been a fan of trikes but they still beat the shit out of cars.
I think I would ride one of these if I couldn't balance a bike anymore.
*20 pages to go!
January 23, 2022, 08:17:19 PM
Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.
Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.
Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)
sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.
Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...
But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..
For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200
I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?
Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K.
A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs.
The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here.
Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels.
By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later.
Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far).
To clarify, I wasn't saying $10K-$15K isn't statistically possible, only that it's not statistically possible to have the same bear market as twice before; 85% correction, 1 year downtrend with 200 Week MA support as the low. For starters, it'd be way too obvious, but mainly because the 200 Week MA is at $20K now so -85% is way too far, if we are to think the same bear market draw down would happen again.
My point was for the "cycle traders" to realise that while November may well end up being a macro top for now, it also shows that the same type of bear market as twice before can't happen again, for what that is worth. Not that I stated it, but I otherwise see current support levels holding (as I said around $46k before it didn't). The hodler fundmentals of Bitcoin would have to dramatically change in order to see 6-12 month hodlers capitulating below $30K, given that the capitulation often comes form the 3-6 month crowd, not the 6-12 month. The 2-3 year hodlers (cycle traders) have already largely sold, somewhat predictably.
Price would have to make new ATH for the usual bear market recipe to occur basically, otherwise just like the current bull market hasn't been the same as previous, neither will the bear market if it comes.
In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense.
I also think March/April 2022 could well be the low, as it would be a 1 year recovery after price went relatively parabolic, as well as you put it when the momentum ended. Despite price making a new ATH later in the year, it wasn't with the same volume or overbought conditions or anything similar to a continuation. More like a lower high that just so happened to be high due to low selling pressure at the time.
3-4 months is also a fair amount of time to return to $40K-$50K before finally making it down to $30K, even if personally I won't be holding my breath for lower prices to actually happen.
imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish).
This I also agree is pretty likely at this point. If we are not in a bear market, nor a bull market, then further consolidation for a few months or more around a neutral-ish level ($45K maybe) wouldn't be out the question now. Bitcoin has never really consolidated in a bullish structure like this, but then again, price has also never consolidated at the highs for 12 months either, so time to think outside of the box for a change.
January 23, 2022, 08:01:25 PM
January 23, 2022, 07:51:03 PM
This is exactly like it.
I have become less and less agreeable to three-wheelers over the years. Chopped VWs were really the only ones I ever thought worthwhile.
I do give a pass for those physically unable to ride a proper motorcycle. But there are better options even for many of them.
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