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January 23, 2022, 06:51:28 PM
Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not. Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts. Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-) sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ... But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far.. For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200 I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...? Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K. A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs. The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here. Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels. By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later. yes, sounds quite plausible...imho the best scenario is a flat around 40-42K with oscillations of plus minus 10k above and below(ish). I still think that this is not a description of the bull market continuation, but something new. In fact, IF 64k was actually the "real" peak (and it does look like it on various momentum charts that Ben Cowen likes to show, for example), then the proposal that the bearish period would last until April of 2022 makes sense. Regarding 10-15k not being statistically possible. I am not sure why, but I also agree that it is VERY unlikely based mostly on this cycle structure (so far). January 23, 2022, 06:49:24 PM
I have trouble following all the crypto news, but what do you mean by "ETH 2.0 releasing billions worth of ETH" ? Isn't the point of ETH 2.0 to go to a staking formula, and thus not a release but rather the opposite, more ETH staked ? Staking is already happening but staked ETH2s are currently locked up in validators and can't be moved. A hard fork later this year (although given how slow Ethereum development is, it might be sometime in 2024) will allow those coins to be moved. Staking started in late 2020 when ETH was like $500, there's a good chance that substantial profit-taking will happen once withdrawals from validators are allowed. Unless it goes back below $500 by then. ... so a shitcoiner, here to tell us this place is shithole? ... maybe the shitholes aren't following you around, you're bringing them with you? January 23, 2022, 06:47:23 PM
Quote from: Richy_T Btw, I always wanted to ask you why do you use shorts instead of a cap? Are you a Bane fan? Quote Well, truth is, I'm just not a joiner. So I'm just poking a bit of light fun. January 23, 2022, 06:43:40 PM
Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal. The single reason for war hysteria switching to wartime propaganda mode is the need for war. Anglo-Saxon world is bankrupt. They need war to write off the mountains of non-performing debt. However, if there is a war it won't be the one they need! At the end they will have to pay back everything they owe to the rest of the world. Germany and France must be very careful not to side with the warmongers! ... the "war" hysteria is only in the West, it's all about creating a distraction from the MAJOR fuck-up that was the plandemic, CIA(DARPA?) genetically-modifed franken-virus lab-leak and dangerous mass jabbing malfeasance, mass psychosis that was pushed by the psy-ops, psychopathic freaks in 'intelligence' agencies ... now they NEED a huge distraction to stop the populations turning on the the gubmints ... and don't talk about the fucked-up public health whatever you do, no, no, no, NOT ALLOWED TO TALK ABOUT COVID NOW ... back to your regular idiot programming clown show circus idiots Ukraine, Ukraine, Ukranie, war, war , war ... bamp ditta dum-dum, bump ditta dum dumb MI6 CIA no no never gonna let you down dump ditta dump January 23, 2022, 06:35:10 PM
Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not. Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts. Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-) sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD. wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%. Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top. It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ... But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far.. For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting? are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200 I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...? Ok, so let's run with the idea of "there will be a year-long bear market like twice before", it's actually quite a fun idea. Mainly because it's completely impossible. Based on the following: an 85% correction finding support from the 200 Week MA after 1 year of downtrend (the working constants from previous cycles): this statistically can not occur. As you said, 85% would be around $10K. Even 80% is still $14K. A bear market low that finds the 200 Week MA in November/December this year (after $69K top): this would be around $30K with current trajectory, give or take. Current price is around $35K. I'm expected to believe that price will continue lower from $35K to $30K over the next 10 months? Not convinced, though wouldn't rule out a dead cat bounce to $50K before finally finding $30K support at end of year. As JJG said, no blow off top (+9 month consolidation) has completely skewed the 85% correction theory (due to the 200 Week MA) given the working theory that price finds support at the 200 Week MA, after 1 year & 85% correction. Hence this heat map is suggesting blueish accumulation, after no redish distribution this cycle, which is relatively logical that accumulation continues until serious distribution occurs. The only relative comparison would be 1 year correction to the 200 Week MA after price went parabolic initially, this I could acknowledge, even if again not very convinced. This would mean finding a bottom in April/May this year (from $64K top), as opposed to end of year. I wouldn't rule this one out, given a bounce back and rejection from $50K levels seems very likely, in order to confirm a bear market as per previous cycle, so if this happens, price could then fall the 200 Week MA around $22K by then (instead of $30K). The reality is given the 1 year long consolidation between $30K and $70K, it is possible to capitulate that low, but would also mean a low in a few months as opposed to the end of the year. So time-wise, not the worst case senario, even if price wise another 40% lower from here. Either way, this current cycle is nothing like the past two cycles, so an 85% correction seems the furthest fetched theory. Finding support from the "line in the sand" at the 200 Week MA also doesn't appear to be necessary, unless a bear market begins (by creating a marco lower high or lower low). For now, I consider the long-term to be neither bullish nor bearish, but neutral, consolidating and at critical support levels. By comparison, this isn't like selling at $10K-15K in 2017, knowing that you'll likely be able to accumulate more at lower levels. To me it's seems more like selling around $5K in the hope of it. That said, I don't think many in this thread are the types to sell once price get's oversold etc, given that even if prices do go lower, it'll most likely return to $40K to $50K before doing so, months later. January 23, 2022, 06:16:08 PM
Nice little candle there... More of that thanks
January 23, 2022, 06:01:23 PM
January 23, 2022, 06:01:04 PM
I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well. Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces. On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time. Source 127.000 Russian vs 255.000 Ukraine troops with 100.000 reserves and they are much better equipped today, in fact; $60 Billion worth of equipment are reserved for Ukraine. By the time Poetin mobilized his 3 million soldiers Europe already did the same. Population Russia; ~114 million, Europe ~440 million. Poetin will think twice if he wants to take over Europe all the way to London, it will not happen it's all bluffing propaganda. The U.S itself has the largest and most technologically advanced military in the world. They have air and sea superiority, this is the result of years of spending enormous amounth of money and they continue doing so. I’ve been in Hawaii for the last couple months working in joint base PHH right next to these brand new destroyers and docked submarines.. They are pretty badass looking.. I thought the destroyers would have more guns like the older battleships but no.. They just use rockets for everything these days I guess.. Missiles are also hidden, as seen in this video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e1bx8IC8lCA Jump to:
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