Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4215. (Read 26714945 times)

"Yes, but we can make up for that by making moar! Brrrrr!
Bitcoin on the other hand has fixed cap... can't add moar... you see?"

(Uh... wait a minute...)

 

Explanation

The harsh reality which is slowly coming in front of everyone and as soon you understand this btc is a tool to protect you against this inflation and the government bullshit and their reckless money printing scheme :



And now here is bitcoin growth chart on the other side whom he's calling for complete fund loss strategy :



See how they destabilize their economy themselves and put blame on others for the same but we need to understand what is beneficial for us as the true picture is with all of us.

Not going to elaborate more because sometimes short sentences do make the big meanings.

Explanation

Bitcoin Works for You, While You Work for the U.S. Dollar.


https://twitter.com/ssaurel/status/1479812885928943620?s=21

You're right, it can't. It certainly didn't in early 2021 that's for sure. Institutional & whale selling in the $50K-60K wasn't the issue though, but the lack of re-accumulation between $30K-$40K.
Possibly also because of this ban I realise. Hash rate was still struggling at these prices so the fundamentals weren't all pointing back to immediate upside.


That I can understand. Price has been in the same price range for 12 months. It'd be naive to think it can't stay within this range for another 12 months.  

That said, it's not common for Bitcoin's price movements to remain range bound for such extended periods, so while it's already happened for considerable time, I wouldn't bet on continuation either. Therefore, I think this long-term consolidation at higher levels is much more likely to break to the upside than the downside, simply based on current macro bullish price structure, nothing complicated here.


In all honesty, I'm remaining open minded. Based on long-term moving averages like the 50 Week MA @ $48.3K that has now been broken, the bull market has almost ended. But I prefer to stay conservative with my perception of these averages, so only when this MA is sloping downwards will I consider the bull market over, likely with a retest that confirms it as resistance as well. Because in the meantime (many weeks), this MA can still be relatively easily reclaimed if price were to reverse and bounce to upside, as +15% really isn't a big move in Bitcoin world. Notably also for example on the mid-term when the 50 Day MA was broken the mid-term bear trend didn't begin, but when this MA starting sloping downwards instead. This is when we saw the breakdown below $53K.

I wouldn't rule out a re-test of $29K, but also think the mid $30K levels will be well defended, given the much larger amount of accumulation at these levels than distribution at higher levels. It looks like that half of these accumulators sold around the $50K-60K distribution level (or on average these accumulators sold half @ 2x), but otherwise the other half didn't (based on volume profile). So I don't believe they will be selling at break even after holding for 6+ months, as it's common for 6+ months hodlers to panic sell at break-even. They are more likely to re-accumulate at lower levels if it comes, or accumulate more in the mid $30Ks imo.


As I've stated in this thread multiple times, I still see higher highs and higher lows, and will continue to see that even if price corrects further to mid $30K levels. If prices reach the lower range of $29K-$30K, then sure, I will accept the fact the trend is completely sideways (rather than still within a purely macro bullish price structure), but again I find this unlikely for reasons above, minus a wick to flush out weak hands.

If the bull market were over however, I'd consider it to have ended with the original ATH of $64K, as opposed to that of $69K that was merely a fake-out, therefore creating an ATL or new local low in April time (ie 12 months of downside/sideways trading) as opposed to creating a new low in November time at much lower prices, like many are fearing right now. Ie, reversal in a few months at most.

The underlying issue I see right now is that open interest is at at time high levels, so in the short-term this is very bearish as traders are trading short-term bearish price movements to the downside. Previously price has always been dominated by miners, now it's clearly derivatives trading as well as futures. But just like when $40K was broken to the upside back in July, this can flip to bullish leverage very quickly.

Explanation

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high price in the next week? ill go with whatever proudhon says minus one dollar. the minus one dollar thing is because hes so well known to be overly optimistic all the time so..

lowest buy ive hit is 41.4k usd so far.

Since the poll is still broken, I suggest a mini poll: What will be the top price in the next week. I say 50 750$. Reasons: quite often after a 30%+ dip from the ATH follows a 25% increase from the bottom. I believe 40 600$ was the bottom, hence the number. If this is not the bottom, better prepare your wallets for the brief opportunity to buy below 40K.

Explanation

Explanation

Yes.. and you are unwilling to betting those terms that you assert including your assertion that the BTC price range for 2022 will stay within $29k to $60k.. and your assertion that there is ONLY a 1% chance of supra $200k during that timeframe. 

Sure, we would not need to bet the exact extremes that you are asserting or your outrageous pie in the sky probabilities that you have not really even described with specifics beyond vaguely asserting that $29k to $60k is the most likely scenario that you see... and what is it's probability?  30%? or some other number?  You have only asserted it as some kind of certainty but you are not really too keen on standing behind your own assertion.  Sure the less than 1% chance of going over $200k in the next year is surely specific enough if you would even come close to standing behind such nonsense.

The punchline seems to be that you don't even come close to any kind of serious discussion to really put some kind of bet down for your own assertions that you are proclaiming to be reasonable but not willing to defend them.

And surely such a bet, if it were to be negotiated does not even have to be for much money at all.. the money is just for an attempt to put some kind of tangibility to it especially since we are not really talking about 50/50 odds.....as far as I can determine.. if you have something that you want to evenly bet then maybe we could discuss that, but you seem to be claiming way higher than 50/50 odds that BTC prices would be staying in your stated range of $29k to $60k for this calendar year. 

Of course, since you are proposing less than 1% odds for supra $200k in the calendar year, then betting could actually put that number into concreteness.  Yeah, we have already gone over some of this, including your desire to diverge away from the topic and to create some other terms than what you are claiming and you also want to propose outrageously dumb numbers that do not even reflect the odds that you are actually asserting, even while at the same time you continue to proclaim scenarios that are quite likely low in probabilities, but you are assigning high probabilities to some of your proposed scenarios - anyhow your scenarios are either quite likely to be wrong or of much lower probabilities than you are spewing them out to be.

Explanation

https://twitter.com/gladstein/status/1479703692974510082

Mostly Biodom is correct.  Reversals do not necessarily just start to happening unless we get some kind of special bounce which would likely be a lot of volume and a further spike down before up, even though sometimes we do see those kinds of scenarios play out in which the downity stops and uppity resumes in a more gradual kind of way. 

For sure, many of us feel more confidence if some kind of battle takes place in order to have some kind of conviction about the reversal being real rather than fakity fake, but that that will frequently end with some kind of short-term spike down and then a bounce.

Either way.. or some variation of those... but if there is a certain kind of trend that is seeming to last in one direction, we know that the trend is your friend.. until it stops, so then a question becomes how to know that the down trend has stopped.. because sometimes we can get a bounce and then just resume the trend.... how much is enough?  How much is enough?

When we had our first major dip of 39% on December 3, about a week or two later, I had tentatively started to consider resistance points of $62k.. but now, since we have been bouncing around here.. and even having some more downity, there might be some need for more detailed attempts to figure out how much of a bounce that we need prior to getting back up to $62k.. so probably $52k, and $55k would be relevant points to consider that if we can bounce back above those points, then the bottom might be "in" even if the entering into noman's land is probably NOT until getting above $62k-ish.


Don't get too distracted by this yield nonsense... unless you are just playing around with very small parts of your holdings.. that you are willing to lose.. but I would suspect that through the years some of these products will become more competitive.. ..


I believe that it is very realistic to consider a more conservative timeline, and also the possibility that the timeline could play out more quickly, especially if you have some relatively aggressive ("make up") tactics, and of course, you are not starting from scratch, either.

One of the problems with any shorter than 4-year timeline, is that we have seen scenarios in which a kind of down, flat, king daddy not cooperating, or at least not really making any significant progress can last for a decently long period of time to shake out the weak hands, and then none of us would want to be shaken out as a weak hand during times in which those scenarios seem to be playing out.. and we end up cashing out way too many coins too soon.. and do not get some of the benefits of the UPside.. Just consider folks who cashed out on the way up from the March 2020 liquidity event.. and they could have been cashing out too many coins throughout 2020 all the way between $6k and $25k, and it's not like BTC prices have ever meaningfully gotten back to those prices, even though there has been ongoing fear about such.. and such never to return to price ranges could occur again, and even though some folks may have felt pretty good about cashing out at $10k or even $12k or $14k which is quite a bit above the March 2020 bottom of $3,850, but still lot's of compounding opportunities seem to have been lost by people cashing out in those price ranges.. and sometimes there can be a lot of good feelings to NOT have to cashout as many coins .. such as cashing out 1/3rd or even 1/6th the amount by having some kind of ability to play your cards incrementally..  and sure sometimes BIG plays might work well too depending on the amount of an exponential UPpity run, presuming that those have not ended forever in bitcoin (and we have heard those kinds of depictions that from here on out stability blah blah blah.. many times, even though from time to time, for some strange reason, we still seem to witness exponential UPpity quasi-melting our faces.. until we need a rinse).

Explanation