Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……
~
I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.
First, I still have hopes we don't hit the bear market yet. After all,
It's too round at the top. It need to be pointy. I also think the influence of halvings becomes less and less powerful, and the 4 year cycle will at some point be a thing of the past. Dollars and euros going up against Bitcoin just doesn't make sense!
But (for now), I regret not selling some close to the peak. In 2017 I sold some right before the peak, and I sold a substantial part at the end of 2019 to pay taxes. The price at that time was less than half of what it is now, and that sale makes me feel uncomfortable selling more now. After all, my bags are too small to be "set for life". If that would have been the case, I would have done the same as you did, but unfortunately I need a
slightly higher price for a decent amount of "set for life". "Locking in" set-for-life status while keeping 75% in Bitcoin looks like a very good scenario to me
Of course, these are not easy choices regarding how much to shave off.. just for insurance purposes, and yeah, the end of 2019 was surely not a good time to be shaving off too many BTC for insurance purposes (or consumption or tax purposes), and maybe just a period for HODL and to get funds from other sources.
Many of us recall that we had a dip in late 2018 and another dip in late 2019, yet maybe you were able to get some kind of higher price rather than selling at the bottom.. but surely that price range in late 2019 would have been anywhere between $7k-ish and $10k-ish.. depending on when and how you carried out your sales.. and surely that would have NOT been feeling good once we went on our September 2020 to April 2021 UPpity move of 6.5x.
It can take a while to get your stack up to a sufficiently decent size to be able to just shave off 25% and then to be comfortable either way.. and surely there is a need to be thinking a bit ahead, even though it was risky for LFC to have had employed that big of a play, but at least he did it with forethought and on the way up rather than panicking on the way down.. which frequently happens.. and surely some of his sales at $53k-ish probably felt like panicking on the way down.. but they seem decent now....
So, yeah, what level of BTC do you need to feel comfortable enough that you are either entering into entry-level fuck you status.. or pre entry level fuck you status or even having a cushion for getting well into fuck you status... and for sure, I am sticking with
my use of the 208-week moving average (and my projection of those numbers outwardly) because I believe that the 208-week moving average is a pretty damned conservative metric, especially when measuring whether currently you are in fuck you status or close to fuck you status which now puts you at around 105 BTC ($2,000,000 / $19k), but in 2025 and 2029 based on the current projection of the 208-week moving average you would ONLY need about 8.7 BTC and 0.7 BTC respectively..
Of course, the 208-week moving average is a kind of delayed indicator, so with the passage of time, you can attempt to measure where the 208-week moving average is at and adjust your projections if you conclude that the 208-week moving average is not moving up at it's historical levels of about 75% per year (which are shown in my chart). and surely, if you do not believe the numbers/projections from my chart, then you can make your own chart in order to attempt to figure out your comfort level regarding how many BTC you believe that you need at a particular point in time to enter into fuck you status.. or what you would consider fuck you status or a kind of level of cashing out that is comfortable for you to feel that you are sufficiently hedged in either direction and to start consuming some of your BTC (with hookers, lambos and blow) or investing in other asset classes (such as homes, businesses, equities or PMs).