Maybe some of your technical wizards like Dragon or Toxic et al can fix my errors here or fill in the blanks, but it looks to me lioke we are piercing the most liberally drawn trendline possible:
Ok, I'll bite, that's the sort of thing I do
I see only 1 touch-point on this support trend-line from 2021, I'll assume a second one from 2020. The third one could therefore provide a pattern, but so far remains unconfirmed and therefore for now remains to be seen as a "random line drawn on a chart". I'd say the relevance remains low unless you follow "hyperwave" theory, in which case it'd be bullish breaking this second wave, as only leads to a market expansion.
Otherwise, what else do you see? Do you see marco higher highs with marco higher lows still? Personally, this is still what I see, despite the sideways price in between.
In the end I will be SUPER surprised if we are entering a new Bear (that is a capital 'B' as in 'Bitcoin Winter')... but the chance of it is bigger than ever so far in this "cycle". So my "Cycles are on the way out" thesis is on the verge of being tested.
Truth is, we'll only get a reasonable confirmation of a Bear when $30K is broken and price creates a macro lower low. Even then, there'd still be higher high combined with lower lows however.
I should come up with some numbers, but I do not know how to do it.
What you do is you randomly assign percentages based on your current emotions
At the very minimum I do not think we see a 80%+ pullback from ATH.
Me neither, doesn't fit any logical Bitcoin price structure of the past 10 years.
What is that umm... We do not go below 13.8k?
I'd say 99%. Below $20K and 200 Week MA, price would be in serious trouble, like multi multi multi multi year Bear. Very unlikely imo.
See thjat's the other interesting metric. That is the pullback based on the minimum % from other cycles. But that also takes us to below the previous cycles ATH. Since we have not gone up the same sort of multiples as the past, I don't see us going down that way either.
Exactly the point here. Price has only corrected 80% when there is a blow-off top, a parabolic rise. It was arguably possible in early 2021, but simply never happened. Too late now.
I think we see bears that last something like the last 6 month one did, and then probably new ATH again, but most likely not the same sort of huge multiple... things like 3x instead of 30x.
I have a similar outlook. The short-term bear markets within a bull market structure as we had in 2021. Rinse and repeat, until a blow-off top eventually occurs.
I think it’s looking pretty obvious now that the bull market is over. It shouldn’t bother any of you on a long time preference. I sold nothing in the 2017 bull & regretted it for ages. Didn’t make the same mistake this time, dumped 25% of my bags between 53.8k & 65k, set for life & now, seeing this dump & likely transition to bear market……
I think that's fair if you felt over-exposed around >$50K prices, I'd also do the same. I sold smaller amount between $50-60K (fearing a lower high), and otherwise held the vast majority. No regrets either.
I still doubt the longer-term bull market is over, or more importantly I doubt the bear market has begun. I still see the 12-month consolidation between $30K-70K as bullish, with higher highs and higher lows.
We're probably going to 30k in the next 12 months, I will buy back what I sold there. If not, no problem, 75% of stash locked away.
Maybe consider some mid-$30K levels to re-acumulate? If price re-tests $30K support that wouldn't be great, it will only weaken it, but a higher marco low above this would certainly be good.
I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
Personally I sold all my BTC at an average of $15K, but that was as a late investor at $5K levels during a parabolic run. No regrets, as re-accumulated between $6K-8K, but this year I don't see the same argument for selling significant amounts personally. The parabolic 4-year cycles have now ended, this much is true given $100K+ didn't occur in late 2021 / early this year. Each to their own though.
The bears will then take over. China PBOC will then print yuan like a mofo and bail out any and all Chinese property developers.
