I hope none of you made my 2017 mistake & deludedly thought bitcoin won’t go down.
If you did, I hope you can live peacefully until the next bull cycle which will start in 2024. If you sold nothing don’t worry, we will hit 100k & above but not in 2022 & most likely not 2023 either. 2024 & 2025 we ride again.
Who are you?
Where did you hide the real LFC_Bitcoin??
We want the bullish stuff and the hype about 100k party! With all the corollaries!
/joke
I hear you.
These are extremely savy words, and something a grown up man would think.
But hey! I did come on the WO for the fun! Not for good financial advice!
/joke again!
At the risk of repeating myself, I have some difficulties concluding that king daddy has already entered into a bear market or that whatever down swing that we are currently experiencing will last more than a few months at most, but I do appreciate the power of LFC having had shaved off 25% of his holdings in order to provide a lot of downside insurance, including ways to feel comfortable with either down or UP.. Of course, I don't really appreciate any kind of seeming gloating about being prepared for the price to go down... so sure, I would think about the shaving off of 25% to be a kind of necessary evil and many times many of us regular participants are going to be critical of any members here who seem to be cheering for down.. even though they are prepared for down and even though cheering versus being prepared is like two sides of the same coin... another thing I am glad that LFC had sold quite a bit less than 50% of his BTC holdings, and surely a few years ago, he had been talking about playing the $50k-ish selling of BTC much bigger than his most recently chosen 25%.
Yeah, he chose to sell way more than I would even have had felt comfortable selling at those prices between $53k and $62k, but surely there could be quite a bit of a different psychology that he had entered into - as compared to me, in which my system has been selling BTC all the way up from $250... so surely, maybe I had sold more than 25% of my coins over the years, but then would those sales have become a wash when buying back? I am not really sure, and so each of us have our comfort levels in terms of financial and psychological insurance.
Prepair for $35k - $40k range that would be the final bottom.
thems rookie numbers
just wait til proudhon gets here with MANLY (err aplacaly?) numbers. you will know real shame then.
Bitcoin price speculation is fun but i'm often wrong...in fact i've seen so many of models in the past 1 a 2 years and guess what they where all wrong. ALL!
Well, if you are trying to box the various BTC price prediction models into too many specifics then nobody is going to be correct, but if you are able to recognize and appreciate that there are many BTC price models that assert BTC's price direction correctly.. so directionally correct in terms of UPpity.. then I would think that those models are adequately and sufficiently correct.. how much more you going to expect, because largely we are UPpity.. especially if we can recognize September 2020 and before that as various springing off points.. of course there are other springing off points too depending upon how you are going to assess.
I keep saying that it is a BIG ASS so fucking what about the stock to flow model's specifics in terms of exact timing of supposed price peaks and in terms of exact BTC prices or BTC price ranges or even if we are within 1 standard deviation or 2 standard deviations from the mean that is expected. It should hardly be much if any concern that the BTC price has deviated from expected price from 2 months ago....so yeah, stock to flow was supposedly largely on track and then poof!!!! no longer on track, and for me, it is big so fucking what.
Anyhow, directionally we have good guidelines with those currently credible and valid models of stock to flow, 4 year fractal and exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles. If you get caught up in specifics or you want too many specifics, then that may well be that you are creating too many expectations and trying to see futility, when directionally, we are UP.. just like the models say.. even if it is not as much as was expected.. so what.. these things can sometimes take a bit of time to play out. How would any of us expect for BTC prices to just go in one direction (UP) without any pain along the way.. and yeah, if there are opportunities to shake some weak hands out of the trees.. then surely the bearwhales are not going to be shy about not pulling any punches.
Thats why i just hold and sticking to my financial planning.
That's always been a good strategy.. Once any of us have largely gotten a stake in bitcoin, then surely we might want to add a few more BTC to our stack from time to time, but just let the time playout.. and if we got 20 BTC or whatever quantity of BTC in 2013/2014/2015 or even at various points thereafter, those BTC have come up in value quite a bit in the past 8 years (seeing that you have been in the bitcoin space -or at least a forum member for as long as me).
Have x coins on Bitstamp selling them at the end of this bull run -unfortunately it didn't happend in December- can wait another 6 moths ore so, no problem. When it happens the next part of my retirement fase will start.
Well what are you going to do if such new ATH or price thresholds that you would like to achieve do not happen in the next 6 months? or even in the next two to three years? A lot of scenarios of varying timelines for the next ATH are possible to play out including quickly going up or getting drug into some kind of DOWNity or flat for longer than we wanted or expected. We should be prepared for some of this, and surely that seems to be part of the justification that LFC feels to have some comfort with whatever BTC's short-to-medium price direction.... Furthermore, we may well know that some BTC price performance timelines should be more likely than others, but at the same time, sometimes minority (and less likely) theories end up playing out.. e.g.... sometimes the less than 8% scenario rather than the 30% plus scenario end up playing out, even though they are way further down on the probability spectrum of scenarios.
