Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4272. (Read 26714528 times)

Nice I smiled at that.

I don't know we kind of went sideways most of 2021 feb 18 2021 we first topped 51k and dec 27 2021 just about 51k

I feel covid-19 stretched the cycle and made it weird.

 the s2f guy should claim this for twisting his model out of shape.

and last 23 days of this month  are between 47k and 51k


So sideways looks like the theme.  @ JJG I know BTC does not go sideways.  Until it does

I had a 7 year cd at 11.2 %

Nice lil pump underway. $51400 

Observing $51,057 & hopeful of a continuation of the bull run. I know I sold 25% (after so many years hodling) but nothing would make me happier than seeing us break out to the upside & see new ath’s in 2022. I feel like we’re at a bit of a crossroads at the moment. As JJG says, this feels like no mans land. We’re either going to pump massively or the bull run is over & we go below $30,000.

I’m well prepared for either direction but much prefer up. I just don’t think we’re going to consolidate in this current price range for long. It’ll be a volatile move in either direction soon.

Explanation

Nice catch! +1 ...


The moment they start advertising for their friends to be able to buy more cheap and the price to keep going semi-sideways for them to have time to grab some more without pushing-pumping the price too much, it's the moment they lost, officially. ... I guess We will see them do the biggest FOMO ever seen in BTCiTcoin history.              

cup and handle in the making in the 1w chart.


/off to my cave at the beach for a few months

The pain is real…!!!

Explanation

Savings accounts died in 1971. Numerous investment opportunities exist for those who do their own research.

Explanation

beautiful <3

https://twitter.com/naiiveclub/status/1475404164276445188?s=20

Seeing some short-term resistance from the bearish sloping 200 MA on 4hr chart. Doesn't look that problematic, but is currently rejecting $51K+ levels for now at least:



$49K is starting to look like a confluence of strong support if $50K doesn't hold in the short-term and price get's rejected at current levels. The 50 MA is rising bullish and moving above the VPVR point of control, also lines up with the 0.5 fib retracement level. There's still fear in the market so remains a good dip buying opportunity, but since the move above $50K people seem to have lost their patience, instead wanting to buy into a break-out, as opposed to waiting to buy dips. Despite having nearly 3 weeks to buy sub $50K levels, many were waiting for lower lows and now buying $50K+ levels it seems.

Needless to say the weekly close confirmed the bullish macro-trend remains in tact with a bullish engulfing candle, and was never affected by short-term price action anyway. No doubt why many did bother to buy sub $50K prices. While a re-test of $48.25K, where the 50 Week MA lies remains more than possible, or the 200 Day MA @ $47.6K, given the strong close last week both possibilities are starting to look less likely. Like many others have pointed out, it's starting to look like the July/September lows. All that is left is for some volume for bullish follow through, now the bearish weakness has confirmed itself.

With last weeks candle I'm starting to consider $53K as being weaker resistance than previously expected. The short-term resistance trend-line is starting to look irrelevant, and chances of a break-out to the $54.8K-58.2K distribution zone is looking more probable, depending on how much volume arrives. Breaking above the 50 Day MA around $54.5K without so much of a re-test in the near term is relatively common in marco bull markets when the short to mid-term changes from bearish to bullish. There is additionally a notable volume gap between $51K-$54.8K, that like $40K-45K, it doesn't appear to need filling.

Something tells me January is going to be a good month, and most of 2022 even better, until then price might stagnate a bit. Likewise if the year closes below $48K support, price might be in trouble.

Explanation

Explanation

You think so?

There are a quite a few people without even close to having a BTC portfolio quantity of 21BTC, and I am ONLY admitting the vast majority of my stash to be above 0.63 BTC currently... so I was talking hypothetically when referring to whether starting out now with 21 BTC or having 21 BTC when BTC reaches $1.2 million per BTC, for example.

JJG ... you will grow old poor.

You are describing a situation in which you anticipate withdrawing both principle and interest.  So you likely need way less than $3.75 million if you were to want to withdraw $125k per year.. .but sure does not hurt to have a cushion in terms of having more principle that you might not need to withdraw.

Traditional withdrawal systems presume that you can earn on average at least a 4% return per year on your principle, so that you should be able to withdraw up to 4% per year so long as you are exceeding that rate in your return on average, without depleting your principle, so if you are able to get such 4% per year on that $3.75 million should be able to get you about $150k per year in withdrawal (without necessarily drawing into the principle so long as your returns are exceeding the withdrawal rate).   I personally believe that bitcoin can do at least 4%, and likely can do quite a bit better than 4% so long as you figure out ways to conservatively calculate the value of your principle.

Of course, we cannot be sure about inflation to be able to continue to live off of $125k per year.. so that is a bit of a problem with projecting out a budget of $125k per year because it should presume some amount of inflation, too...especially these days.

There are a variety of ways to value your BTC holdings beyond merely going by spot price, and part of the reason, that I prefer to use the 208-week average as my value indicator for my BTC portfolio is because it is so much of a lagging indicator that you would be able to see if you are not able to withdraw as much (or at as high of a rate as you had been anticipating) and it allows for more cushion in terms of conservation of the principle.  


Ok  21 BTC is enough.

Are you saying right now that 21 BTC is enough or that 21 BTC is enough in a kind of maintenance level way?

I have some kind of a projection systems that I use that show the number of BTC that I currently have and then I project out the quantity of BTC that I expect to have in the future as the BTC price goes up, and so hypothetically, if I were to start out with 21BTC now, based on my current way of projecting out, I would anticipate if BTC prices were to shoot up to $1.2 million, then I might only have around 18.4BTC... so sure that is a possible ratio that still works...

However, I suppose that if you were to want to end up with 21 BTC by the time the BTC price reaches $1.2 million, then you would need something like 24BTC currently.  

Those are just approximate withdrawal ratios that I currently have in my BTC price projections and BTC portfolio expectations in the event such a BTC price rise up to $1.2 million were to happen.


Just because another forum member agrees with you, including your nonsense discussion of a shitcoin in these here parts, that does not mean anything about whether you are not crazy.. #justsaying.