Something tells me January is going to be a good month, and most of 2022 even better, until then price might stagnate a bit. Likewise if the year closes below $48K support, price might be in trouble.
Regarding your point about January and 2022 overall. It could be that January will be good, but hard to really say how far into 2022 that "good" is going to play out.
Yes very true, it might not be most. I was expecting at least Q1 to see upside, but now anticipating Q1-Q2 for upside personally. Q3/Q4 could well be a write off, depending on how Q1-Q2 goes.
I imagine that when you say "most of 2022," you are suggesting that BTC prices may well be getting into new ATHs and continuing to have some UPpity price pressures.. and maybe even having some kind of a top in 2022 that is reasonably higher than our already existing top of $69k.. and maybe even having a decent amount of sustainability that is meaningfully higher than $69k.. whether that ends up playing out as a blow off top (which you seem to be less inclined towards suggesting to be in the near-term bitcoin cards) or some other kinds of BTC price moves that at least bring us into the 6 digits..
Yeh pretty much... Most (if not all) of 2022 could easily remain above $69K for example, even if the latter half is a downtrend back to this level. Still think that $69K will be the market low for 2023.
I'm coming back around to the blow-off top scenario now given the on-chain metrics playing out. That and the amount of leverage in the market that's 10/100x more than in 2017.
Personally, I am considering that at some point there is going to be some kind of a blow-off top that is likely to be greater than 3x from where we are currently, and surely why not something like a 5x to 8x or greater blow off top, since we seemed to have had so much decent consolidation since our 6.5x rise from September 2020.. to the extent that we might able to consider that September 2020 price arena as a kind of base starting out point.
5x-8x possible, somewhere between $350K to $550K? Sounds unreasonable to most, but I wouldn't rule it out if it's heading in that direction... I do however remain more conservative for a blow-off top, based on the % increases per cycle reducing, so roughly based on these decreased gains it'd put a target around $200K-300K roughly. That said, this is only based on an extrapolation from three previous blow off tops, so isn't exactly an ideal extrapolation by any means, Otherwise, $100K-150K for no blow-off top, simply reaching the logarithmic growth upper band and reversing.
Regarding your mentioning of closing of the year and $48k as a potential pivot point, I hardly find that kind of pivot point as being significant whatsoever.. Surely, we ONLY have a bit more than 4 days left in the year (depending on timezone). Maybe we should attempt to figure out some kind of a timezone that is universally acceptable.. ... UTC seems to be good since so many charting services seem to use it for the closing of the candles, right?.
Yes UTC is universal for charts, regardless of your timezone, so best to stick to what most people are looking at. Closing the year below $48K on Friday would likely lead to another close below the 50 Week MA which would more or less confirm the recent bounce back to $51K as a dead cat, rather than a recovery. Still a few days to go for the weekly candle to end up with a nice bull wick though.
Better to be correcting lower earlier in the week than later that's for sure. More time to bounce back.
Anyhow, I recognize that sometimes some of us repeat ourselves, including yours truly, but I still hardly see any price moves as significant between $42k and $62k.. especially if we are anywhere somewhat in the middle of that... so yeah if we start to get within a few thousand of $42k or $62k then we are getting to the outside of the range that I consider that currently we are in...
While true, I think enough investors pay close attention to yearly closes. Macro investors will consider the monthly, quarterly, bi-annual and yearly close as quite relevant. This is also very logical, as the monthly chart is more important than the weekly/daily in the macro-sense, so naturally the quarterly/bi-annual closes becomes more relevant than the monthly. The yearly chart still doesn't tell us much however.
I'm not suggesting that closing the year below $48K would leave to sub $40K, but would likely be a catalyst for some sub $46K prices to return, like $44K and $42K I imagine.
so maybe I might thereby assert that getting below $45k or above $58k starts to become important to consider that we might be within reach of going outside of our current range... and sure maybe in that sense I am trying to remain somewhat less inclined towards creating frameworks for my lil selfie to get excited about what seems to be shorter term possible price moves or fear factoring that might happen within what I conceive of our current $42k to $62k price range. In other words.. maybe wake me up when we get close to breaking out on either side, otherwise movements within the range are largely noise to me, even if I might get a wee bit more excited if there is a relatively BIG move within the range.. that ends up almost getting close to one end of the range or another...
Not going to argue with you there, there is a lot of noise between those ranges you mentioned, and until price convincingly leaves these ranges, then it's still relatively noisy. Reminds me of $30K-40K range to be honest, I largely switched for those 3 months as the market became very boring. I guess for those who bought the dip, waiting to buy the dip, waiting for a deeper dip, then the yearly close could act decisively for enough people to get out of current dip positions and re-target some lower prices that would influence short-term price action. Just a theory for now though. Until $48K is actually broken, then there's no reason for me to consider that the year will close below this level. For now $49K appears to be acting as support, as I previously suspected, while $51K acts as short-term resistance.
