Looks like news of the China real estate defaults are starting to affect corn prices negatively?
This is a fascinating dynamic to me. The Chinese real estate meltdown stands to be the gasoline on the fire that has been burning since the similar situation 13 years ago (that Satoshi mentions in the genesis block).
And that will have possibly profound effects on ALL markets.
But, as we are aware bitcoin has a particular property that makes it a VERY attractive haven in the midst of a storm like the one I think we are watching unfold.
So, I think as this gets worse all markets drop as money is moved to risk off investments. Bitcoin is still crazy speculative, and poised to be the most pristine risk-off asset in the world.
As much as I would like to see Bitcoin;s famous volatility fade a little? I do not think we have seen the end of it yet. But it should be interesting to watch.
Risk off as in deflation of ridiculous 100X leverage? Yes. (the price will move down or be flat in the short term as it finds a new bottom)
Risk off as in hedge funds NOT acquiring the underlying bitcoin asset on the DL? No.
As traditional overinflated equity markets drawback, all that money will be looking for safe hedge assets to run to. Because cash is still trash, and they know it.
Let's see what happens in the New Year.
Yep. I think you are saying basically exactly what I mean. We may still see volatility and (flash?) crashes since all markets will hurt in this, but ultimately this is possibly one of the safest places for money to go! And THIS TIME there are HUGE NUMBERS of "trad" finance folks that are waking up to that fact. As is always said if funds only park 1-5% here?? BOOM.
*EDIT* One other thought.
Bitcoin CONTINUES to make the journey for a Risk-on asset to a Risk-off asset. And the opinions on which it is are QUITE polarized.
The old guard see it as a ridiculously speculative and volatile asset. And of course they are right, particularly in the short term.
And the new folks see it as the (potential) most pristine risk-off asset humanity has ever discovered. And of course they are right, particularly in the long term
It is similar to how money is made playing poker. The game is all about luck in the short term. The next card decides all our fate. But in the long term you make money by making the right decisions at each point of the game regardless of the next card. Bitcoin is just the same, and the right decision is to place the majority of our wealth in it . But sometimes we lose sight of the double goodness we have from being early. For us right now the ASCENT is forefront in our minds.
But in the end SAFETY will become the biggest selling point.Good thoughts.
I tend to still think of the ongoing deflationary environment that we are in worldwide. They (traders, investors, banks, hedge fund managers, etc.) can continue to take free money from the Fed all they want and speculate in the markets, and attempt to keep certain markets and stocks propped up every year. But eventually deflationary forces are going to increase to the point where they start to overwhelm the markets. Like trying to kayak up stream. And I think China, being the world's second biggest economy, is likely the catalyst that is going to cause the dam to break.
The Fed can sit there all day and
say that they don't want excessive inflation because that hurts economic growth, but the fact is that deflation destroys economic growth just as much when it is all fake (debt based) growth. If they don't continue to prop up certain markets with free credit and tons of leverage, then we get deflation at the mega corporate level, which causes paper wealth destruction, credit to evaporate, and profits to go negative, which translates into massive worldwide layoffs. Which in turn causes even more deflation, and more massive layoffs, and then we go into a vicious deflationary spiral called The Great Depression 2.0.
So yeah make no mistake, the wealthy elites are starting to hedge on the DL so as to not alert the public, all the while still pumping highly leveraged money into stonks. They do this because they have no choice, they HAVE to. They will continue to buy Bitcoin without moving the price, and will continue to drain the float. All this will eventually lead to the next leg up, most likely whenever the Fed decides it's time for another abrupt black swan market crash so that they have an excuse to print up another $6-7 Trillion at 0% interest rates.
Once the Fed tries to take the punch bowl away again (taper) for any length of time, look out below (stonks) and moon (Bitcoin).
