This, as a trader, I've really noticed this year with ETH that ...
It was worth it to dox.. dragonvslinux...
Market is looking for the time Congress would bolt out of there for a vacation (since they are 'ideating' about new ways to raise revenue for the build program), imho.
https://bgrdc.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/2021-Combined-Congressional-Calendar-BGR.pdfPrediction: bearish to flattish Nov 16-19, bullish Nov 20-Nov 28, then flattish/bearish Nov 29-Dec 10, then a nice finish for the year: Dec 11-Dec 31 with a relatively mild year end profit taking since we appreciated about ~117
100% so far and not 1000%. In case or a large move, this could change, of course.
I appreciate your bold prediction, even though I do not agree with several parts of it. I do agree that there could be a variety of ways to temporarily break away from PlanB's overly optimistic expectations and even scheduling that for sure $100k has to happen before the end of the year. I don't believe that delaying bullruns even into early 2022 would negate some reasonable variation of PlanB's model.. I do still expect as I mentioned a few posts earlier in my response to STT that we have pretty decent odds, such as 47%-ish of reaching at least $100k this cycle and sure if I am sticking with 47%-ish odds for this cycle, then it would have to be a bit lower for this calendar year.. so either I have to change my estimates or maybe just adjust a few percentages down to 41.5%-ish for this calendar-year.. which still remains bullish, no? i am doubting my own bullishness, temporarily.
I am a bit confused by your above numbers regarding ~117... I would suggest that this bull run started at about $4,200 in April 2019 and therefore so far we have gotten 16.43x out of this bullrun, and I do expect that there are decent odds that we would be somewhere between 16.43x and 78x (the approximate amount for the 2017 run) .. maybe in the ballpark of 50x.. but surely that is far from a given... but seems reasonable.
If you are suggesting that $32k-ish would be our jumping off point, well that seems ridiculous but that would be one way of calculating a 117% appreciation.. so presumably the bottom of the 56% dip -which hardly even seems to be a relevant measuring point, but I know with guys who want to spin their own price prediction models, then we can get all kinds of crazy-ass results that hardly make any sense in the whole scheme of things or even the appreciation/recognition of bitcoin as a somewhat formidable asset class (which is the reality of the matter that faces us with paradigm shifting king daddy). You have created these kinds of stupid-ass frameworks in the past and tried to argue them as if they were somewhat relevant.
We also get some kind of $32k-ish number if we start the calendar year as our measurement, and yeah I know that many traditional financial analysis want to plug assets into yearly performances and I have my doubts about whether that is a meaningful thing to do with bitcoin if that is how you arrived at those kinds of framenings.
Anyway, I was very close to sending you an smerit for your seemingly creative framening of the issue, but as I had been thinking through where you seem to be going - including some of the places that you have gone before with spinning some of your own nonsense.. I am considering that I don't necessarily want to become too charitable in giving you benefits of the doubt when you have engage in some of this seemingly misleading nonsense in the past.. and maybe I should just say "fuck you" regarding your assertion that bitcoin has not yet done a 10x in this cycle.. I know another thing that troll/shill fucks like you like to do (Stolfi used to do it, too) is to measure BTC performance from the top of cycles to show how badly off we are (and you have done that before too), so if you were to measure this cycle from $19,666, then so far we have only gotten 3.5x-ish.. Of course, I believe that those measures that start from the top of cycles do not adequately capture the asset in terms of when we are at various points within the midst of a cycle - even though in the real long term (such as over several cycles) the measuring from tops does tend to iron itself out because the tops of earlier cycles do look pretty dwarfed if we look at subsequent cycles.. such as $1,163 (in 2013) and $32 (in 2011), and sure we could even look at $263 of March 2013 which retrospectively we should be assessing as an intermediate stage of the 2013 cycle that ended up topping in late 2013 (so retrospectively on a further zoomed out basis we see that the $263 was not really a true top of cycle).
Maybe you will be able to come out with a more innocent explanation (or response) than some of the misleading motives that I am starting to attribute to you after playing with your numbers a wee bit.. so I would like to be wrong about my attributions of the way you are seeming to frame bitcoin and its current performance and you have some kind of a better explanation.. though I know frequently when your seemingly misleading motives are pointed out you will either get emotional and engage in personal attacks, completely ignore my inquiries or just give some kind of a divergent all over the place response.
Let's see? Am I unfairly maligning you? I am pretty sure that your history has already shown that you are not really the kind of guy that any of us more bitcoin bullish folks would want to be stuck in the trenches with because you seem to want to turn on king daddy bitcoin at any semblance of an opportunity (or weak point) that you identify.. which tends to put you on team opportunistic FUD spreading - even if that might not have been your original intent (sometimes difficult to identify actual genuineness or even lackenings of bad intent on interwebs).
