Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4471. (Read 26709986 times)

Explanation

A bit of a weird statement STT.. almost sounds like you are too prepared for DOWN.. or might I say insufficiently prepared for UP.

Yeah.. sure anything can happen, but suggesting that not getting $100k this year would be some kind of "good"... no no no.. not only "good" but instead "best" is a weird as fuck, especially for a supposed bitcoiner... who is supposedly also informed about the topic of bitcoin.

Actually, I would not necessarily claim that $100k has odds that are above 50/50, but I think that part of my issue is a desire to attempt to stay relatively conservative in my assigning of odds.. but gosh even if the odds might be in the 40% arena, that still seems to be bullish as fuck.

There have not been any facts or additional information to cause me to change my numbers, and I looked at my estimates from a couple/few weeks ago, and it looks like I am largely assigning 53% odds that BTC prices do not top above $100k.. but still I am both shooting those numbers out of my ass and trying to be realistic to my own sentiments as well, and 47% odds for $100k or greater does seem to be quite bullish, too... 

Here's a clip of my recent reiterations of the odds for up/down topic, with links.

>>>>>>
<<<<

Even if you, STT, are NOT assigning lower numbers than me, you are stating pretty damned strong preferences that you believe that there is some kind of good/best to the bitcoin ecosystem to actually stay below $100k.  Difficult to follow.. Difficult to follow.


I had to look up the word "Amphetamine," and sure, even if I were to not know the word would not exclude me from having a problem that fit within such descriptive.

I am wondering if I should admit or deny?  I will consider the matter and potentially get back with you upon my discretion.


Now that is an easy one.

No need to look up nuttin.

But still the same answer.  Will consider the matter...

Starting to feel that you guys (are you guys? or cats?) are so great (should I say the "best" thanks to STT?) for considering my situation with such seemingly deep concern(s).

Pretty much done for the season.

We were up there a week ago with unseasonably warm weather for 3 days. A week ago today it reached 18c (65f) but there was still snow in the shade in the woods. We were able to sit in the sun in our shirt sleeves and enjoy frosty Margaritas. Still got cold at night though... close to freezing. We had to run the generator all night to keep warm.

It gave us a chance to finish up winterization. The roof is tarped, leaks caulked, water drained, toilet waste disposed of, and gasoline preserved.

The great thing about owning the whole lake and having only one road/trail in is that it's easy to keep trespassers out. My man up there says he'll have a new steel gate installed across the road entrance and will fell a few trees across other snowmobile-capable trails before the snow gets deep enough to sled in.

Maybe we'll get lucky and get another freak warm snap, but most likely that's it until we get back from Mexico next spring. Now it's time to start getting ready for Xmas and leave Muskoka behind us for the year. Gotta brush up on the Xmas tunes and get the Santa suit out of the mothballs.



Thanks to Blind Mayor Bitcorn for the statue.

Either that, or "Try the decaf, dude"...

Something tells me jjg may have an Amphetamine problem  

I doubt that you need any mining of asteroids for gold to continue to demonetize by another 70% and maybe even 90%... yes... there is value in something having utility and a lot of utility, but I would think that if gold would be demonetized completely it may only have 10%-ish of its current value (am I being too generous?)

By the way, there has already been quite a bit of demonetizing of gold, and I am not sure if bitcoin has been the main cause for that - even though many of us (and this knowledge is becoming more and more spread amongst normies) have seen a lot of the "gold is better than bitcoin" proponents fading into the bushes (like that Homer Simpson meme)..   Surely there are some people still hanging onto gold and speculating that it is going to pump or at least hold its value greater than the dollar - which probably it is going to continue to have struggles when bitcoin is here to show fairly obviously that it is not only superior to gold.. but that more and more of that realization is sinking in.   


hahahahaa

He has his moments.

 

 


What about you Alex?  Do you have any kind of opinion on the topic or the potential relation to bitcoin?


Look at AlcoHODL.. 

---enabling the whiner...     


$98k by close of November seems a bit more difficult than $100k by the end of the year, and for sure we have decent posturing for achieving $100k by the end of the year... and of course, seeds of doubt need to be present to attempt to shake more and more weak hands from their coins.

Even if $100k is not reached by the end of the year, and $69k ends up being the top for this calendar year, we still seem to be quite poised for $100k soon^tm.  Does it matter if $100k comes in 2021 calendar year, or there ends up being a shake out of more weak hands and we get some more delay in our UPpity.. including if noman's land thesis ends up petering out? 

There are frequently needs to attempt to shock HODLers and especially newbies, and sure I am having difficulties considering that a lot more DOWNity could be accomplished or even NOT getting much more UPpity in this calendar year, but extreme scenarios still can be accomplished - especially if non-BTC backed dollars are being likely used to bet on BTC down (I think that is called naked shorting?).. but it still seems that those naked shorters could end up getting reckt pretty badly, too... and maybe some of them can afford to take such risks?  I have my doubts that the arrogant traditional financial fucks have this "in the bag" as they sometimes seem to want to portray.. but hey... we will see.  We will see.  We have been in places that are quite similar to our current location several times before.

Volume increasing increasingly

Explanation

I don't completely disagree with you, at least in regards to perceptions that exist in the real world that gives way too much emphasis to such an important metric, and I really hate to get into any kind of attempts to substantiate my points beyond already having had made them - and further your point about the tail all of a sudden having power to wag the dog based on the growth of a misleading metric is almost ridiculous to think about, even if you have attempted to frame the matter in seemingly reasonable and logical ways.


I am not going to dispute that a decent amount of money ends up getting into bitcoin that may well have not gotten into bitcoin (or at least not as quickly) because it came through various shitcoins or shitcoin projects first..,. that dynamic does not cause those shitcoins or projects to be leading bitcoin even if they become big contributors to bitcoin's price - or even creates additional UPpity price momentum.... It's like analysts trying to blame the 2014 "crash" in the bitcoin price on MTGOX/willybot blah blah blah.... yeah there was some contribution, but 2013 had more than a 100x price run up so the BTC price was due for a correction anyhow, so focusing on one cause or some narrow causes for BTC's 2014 price dip and its relatively long recovery in 2015/2016 remains somewhat ridiculous in terms of seemingly trying to overly simplify a variety of factors that influence bitcoin and it's price...

Similar is true when you give too fucking much credit to various shitcoins and shitcoin projects to be assert that they are leading bitcoin blah blah blah.. even if there are surely contributions in that regard, but too many people are likely to be mislead when you describe the dog in that kind of way.. leads to also attempts to analyze shitcoins and shitcoin projects.. and I continue to not only assert that to be irrelevant to this thread but also causes way too much confusion in terms of getting distracted from adequately understanding and appreciating a variety of bitcoin nuance..

Maybe I have been a wee bit overly harsh on you dragonvslinux in terms of suggesting that you do not adequately understand bitcoin, but jesus fucking christ.. I have some troubles understanding why you are wanting to argue those various confusing points in this threads which just has ongoing tendencies to devolve us into comparing which shitcoin is less shitty.. which is likely going to distract us a whole lot, in this thread, in being able to understand bitcoin better for many of us who sometimes can get lured into various false equivalencies (and I am not even proclaiming myself to be completely immuned from such luringenings).


oh gawd... ..  

even if a lot of value is coming into bitcoin through a variety of shitcoins and shitcoin projects does not cause bitcoin to be dependent on such funding sources in order to sustain itself.. even if a variety of arguments might well prove unequivocally that bitcoin would suffer some corrections or shifting down of its price curve in the event that those various channels of liquidity were to be completely (and suddenly perhaps?) be removed.


You really seem to be devolving into off-topicness here.  I already have sufficiently addressed these points.. so I see little to no reason to continue to elaborate on that bullshit framing of the analysis.. so why don't you take that discussion somewhere else... if you are so excited to engage in it.. even create a thread  since you believe it is so damned important - probably there are already threads in this forum that are related to that.. this one is not.


I doubt that your breathing topic/thesis becomes more relevant to this thread by your more detailed elaborating on it.. .you are not making any kind of new theory that has not been presented here numerous times even if you are wanting to update it with contemporary data..


Fair enough...

Details of such need not be discussed here...   what are there more than 13k shitcoins and surely a variety of other projects and there are so many ways to go with how to fuck around with that 10-20% if such experiment and learning about the space is an urge that does not cause them to get more and more and more distracted and unable to limit their lil selfies to 10-20% when they hear about a project that is going to save humanity. blah blah blah.. anyhow a slippery slope that surely some people may have to work out themselves.. which is another reason that I have difficulties in even going above 10%.. and so there is a lot of value in both focusing in bitcoin (which you largely are not even doing in this response of yours) and focusing finances on bitcoin for a decent amount of time to work on building a nest egg for a while before venturing out into the so many projects that take advantage of people who fail/refuse to sufficiently understand bitcoin first (maybe you personally are there, dragonvslinux... .. I am not sure..especially given your ongoing desires to elaborate on such crappenings.. your mind seems muddled.. or maybe just that you have not found the correct thread to share your various supposed "insights").....

By the way, we likely agree that in the end, each person has to make these kinds of proportionality decisions for themselves and to find their own ability to balance the internal greed that each of us likely have and have to attempt to temper with our level of prudence - so long as greed and attempting to rush matters does not sometime overtake that.  We are all (at least us non-bots, as d_eddie has confirmed that I am a peep) have these kinds of problems to sometimes become too emotional or greedy - especially if we do not sufficiently practice controlling some of those inclinations.


It seems to me that part of the reason that we tend to direct a lot of responses towards newbies is to attempt to make the content of the discussion more generally accessible to everyone.. whether newbie or more experienced investor.  Of course, some techniques are more advanced than others, and from my perspective you seem to be continuing to obfuscate this topic when you are suggesting that newbies should go straight into some kind of a diversification strategy.

Maybe I can bring up a hypothetical person to attempt to make my point more clear?  Of course, NOT everyone is going to fall into exactly this hypothetical person's situation, so there is going to be variations of where someone might be at.. and surely there are a lot of folks who end up not really starting to invest until they get into their 30s even if they may have made some attempts in their 20s but ended up cashing out and not really building anything and then perhaps panicking somewhat when getting into their 30s.. or they end up putting everything into property.. or finally get a job that offers a 401k.

Let's say that we have a person that is brand new to investing, and s/he has about $100 extra per week (that is $5,200 per year) that s/he can invest into bitcoin and the person expects that s/he might be able to come across an additional $4k through the year to be able to put into bitcoin... maybe $2k twice a year (approximately) based on potential extra cashflow (that is $9,200 total for the year = $5,200 + $4k).  I am presuming that this person does not invest into bitcoin until having his/her shit together, so has a timeline of at least 4 years of investing before needing to withdraw any of the money and surely 10 years or better is preferable and also has sufficiently projected cashflow, expenses, an emergency fund of sorts... so there should be close to a zero chance that there is going to be any need to touch the funds before 4 years and preferably longer such as more than 10 years..   I am going to say that for the first year or two, don't be fucking around with investing into anything beyond bitcoin.. so sure the eggs are all in one basket, but the size of the investment after the first year is only $9,200  and the size of the investment after two years is $18,400.... Somewhere between $9,200 and perhaps more than $18,400 the person can start to consider diversifying and all that kind of mumbo jumbo.. and also the person will have had 1 year to 2 years to study his/her investment and additional matters related to how his/her so far investment plan is working out in terms of personal circumstances and to figure out if what is being done feels like a decently good fit or if some tweaks might need to be accomplished based on changes in personal circumstances or various learnings along the way.

In other words, fuck the concept of diversifying for the mere sake of diversifying.. especially when you start to talk about diversifying into shitcoins or shit projects... that may or may not pump.  I am talking about a kind of long term attempt to build wealth (and a nest egg) rather than either gambling or trying to become overly knowledgeable regarding one scam coin being less of a scam than others.  Once getting into $10k or perhaps supra $20k.. maybe at that point 5% or 10% can start to go into other projects.. but still maybe take that from new money rather than taking it out from bitcoin, but surely there could be some justification to diversify some BTC value if it pumps a lot.. but that can be dangerous to attempt to accomplish too before a decent amount of a budding nestegg is already built.



Well when you start out.. then you might ONLY have BTC and cash.  Once getting to a higher level there might be some preferences or even needs to move away from having everything in only BTC and cash.. I have never said to only invest in BTC and cash.. but I could see how some people might reasonably end up going down that road, and maybe they do not feel any need to begin to diversify until after a few BTC cycles.. so if the above person gets through two BTC cycles with some kind of similar level of ongoing investment into BTC (kind of presuming the same cashflow levels but sometimes cashflow levels will go up.. but we need not necessarily presume that for the purpose of this example), there might be something like $73,600 ($9,200 x invested into BTC, and at some point there might feel some need to begin to diversify.,. maybe ONLY after 1 cycle in terms of getting to something like $36,800 ($9,200 x 4) invested.

Of course, such a somewhat aggressive strategy of investing around $9,200 per year for the past 8 years would have likely caused a decent number of people to consider diversifying out of BTC at some point especially since we would currently be looking at a BTC stash of nearly 82 BTC and nearly a $5.5 million spot price valuation, and especially if such 8 year long investor were ONLY in bitcoin and cash.. but at what point such diversification is justified (if at all) will be discretionary.. and sure, I would likely proclaim that too much gambling is going on if no diversification is made yet (at least into property and equities) based on the facts that I have described above.

Of course the past 8 year performance does not even exactly tell us what the next 8 years might bring.. and surely maybe we could end up reducing how much of an urgency would have been felt 8 years ago as to what might be felt currently, and that likely would ONLY justify changing the amounts invested rather than suggesting that there is any need to start to diversify at an point prior to building a wee bit of a nest egg before gravitating into the diversification (dilution of investment) direction.


I doubt that retrospective analysis of what happened in 2017 with the considerable UP and down necessarily justifies changing the strategy in terms of focusing on BTC first before fucking around with various shitcoins.

Furthermore, there are quite a few people who actually come to the conclusion that it is not worth attempting to time tops and bottoms until getting a decent amount of stake in the game.. so I am not going to go along with your suggestion that it is prudent to take profits until building a nest egg first... and then yeah, if there is a certain amount of time in the market and a building of a decent amount of value, then maybe  a bit of shaving might be justified.. each person is going to have to assess these matters for himself/herself, and I am not going to conceded that something like $9,200 or even $18,400 invested will necessarily trigger a justification of selling any significant amounts, but I could see that if you reached $9,200 or $18,400 invested in early 2017.. so at that point maybe your average cost per BTC would have been way less than $1k per coin, but then you get around a 20x in price appreciation causing your $9,200 to be worth $184k  (so surely it becomes somewhat tempting to shave a wee bit off).. or your $18,400 to become worth $368k.  So yeah it becomes tempting to shave some off... and again perhaps a bit of a dilemma while going through it but not as much of a dilemma when we have Monday morning quarterbacking.. which surely is not what kinds of real privileges that we have in the real world.


Fuck shitcoins.. you are confusing matters... take that discussion somewhere else.


You can fuck around with your complication of your investment strategy all that you like, it is neither on topic here nor even as straight-forward as you seem to be wanting to suggest it to be.  Do the fuck what you like, but stop cluttering our discussion of bitcoin with those kinds of distractions.. this is not the "all the ways that you can make the most money (especially by fucking around with random shitcoins) thread".... the last time I checked.. unless infofront (you fuck) changed the topic?.. hahahahahaha.. #nohomo


My head is hurting with this nonsense (I am pretty sure that I am not alone regarding this "human" feeling).


Fair points.


Fuck that dominance bullshit.


Might work for you, but newcomers should not be fucking around with that crap... for reasons that I have already outlined at various points above, in my other posts and through my above hypothetical.


No need for either newbies or even people who have been into BTC for a while.  In other words, there is no need to diversify for the mere sake of diversification.. as I believe that I have pointed out a zillion (could be exaggerating? perhaps?) times... sure upon building a decent investment of $10k to $20k then yeah some folks might start to be justified in playing around with shitcoins.. somewhat of a personal choice rather than a "it's not going to get you rekt, so yolo... why not?  blah blah blah bullshit..." 

By the way, dragonvslinux, I will concede that there can be a certain amount of crazy-ass risk taking that people in their teens and early 20s might be ready, willing and able to take that might not be prudent in terms of longer term investing ideas because they do not have shit.. but there is also quite a bit of value in building principle, and so there are so many folks who have not built shit in life into their 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s, and surely it gets worse when they are in their 50s and 60s and realizing that what they had been doing had not been building principle.. so at some point their is a lot of justification in assuring that you are building principle... and I personally believe that it is better to start early to build principle and that will get you a lot of advantages later down the road... yes, sometimes there might be some once in a life time opportunity that people will come across that justify putting a lot of their principle at stake, but I doubt those kinds of situations are coming up as much as you, dragonvslinux, seem to be suggesting that they come up with your seeming desires to dilute BTC investments by gambling on shitcoins right from the start of investment life.


As relevant as you believe this uptrend versus down trend discussion is.., seems to be appropriate for some other thread or forum.

Explanation

I hereby complain that the price is going back to 64xxx

I dont think the energy market there detracts from aluminum as they are utilizing thermal excess energy and remote sources that lack infrastructure to transport the energy to places it would be used.    All commodities are doing well and likely to boom over ten years, so long as there is growth worldwide and weak currency, the supply and demand will force up prices because of costs to establish mines determine supply and pricing.
   Peter Schiff is just someone who goes by long term macro economic rules, I do think he has a blind spot to technology a bit alot but mostly its because his perspective is by the decade.  The publicity does him good regardless, plenty of people remain outside of crypto and skeptical of its long term viability so that hasnt gone away.   The funniest thing I saw recently is JPM the bank sees BTC price target as 126k quite possible and Jamie Dimon who runs the bank says BTC is worthless.
   Thats a positive because I dont want everyone on the same side of the boat all agreeing all bullish, I would have to expect a bigger sell at that point.   Pullbacks, doubt etc while we rise longer term is probably for the best and not getting 100k this year also I think is for the best.

Ironically when it is all said and done, Aluminum may also take some of Gold's luster away as a lot of the excess energy to make aluminum will now be aimed at mining Bitcoin instead.  Creating a more realistic price for Aluminum.

Explanation

The very first broadly available was AZ, which was given mostly to the elderly, high risk groups and medical staff.
After the blood clot problems with AZ were discovered, mainly Moderna and Pfizer, along with Johnson, which was kind of a substitute for AZ, because nobody wanted it anymore and first of all, young folks preferred it because it was only a single jab.
For the boosters, they only use Pfizer and Moderna, while Moderna got some bad reputations, especially when used with younger people, so it's chosen less often lately.

Q1/Q2-2022 candidates are Valneva and some other vaccine based on sterilized virus/particles.

EDIT: Updated diary here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.58444096

Next couple of weeks are make or break, I think. Certainly as far as the numbers being predicted by well known analysts go, it’s getting towards crunch time.

I’m not enjoying the struggle to get close to & breach $70,000. Today is the first time in a long time I am starting to doubt we will see a $100,000 bitcoin in 2021.

NFA.

Explanation

Well comparing it to btc is not the same as comparing it to to usd. But I get your point.

if you go back to 1975 gold was 160 usd

Now it is 1800 usd

https://www.in2013dollars.com/us/inflation/1975?amount=1
dollars from 1975 to now are  5.14 to 1


so gold clearly bested the $

as 1800/160 = 11.25 to 1


and the dollar is 5.14 to 1

BTC crushes those numbers

the first day btc was at a dollar was 2011 feb 9


https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/Bitcoin_history#Bitcoin_in_2010


so it is up 65,000 to 1 in the last 10 years and 9 months.

It was meant as a sarcastic joke.

I agree with you wholeheartedly and still get out quite frequently...which btw is precisely why I moved to a U.S. state that still has civil liberties/freedoms intact. Unlike Commiefornia, or Australia.

How's the lakefront property coming along Jimbo?