Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4558. (Read 26610787 times)

Most excellent, dude!  

Just as BTC nears its (US$) ATH.

Photo of the day?


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EDIT: A story to read while we await $ATH

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/business/chainalysis-adds-bitcoin-to-balance-sheet

I wonder how "clean" THEIR BTC is?

ATH within an hour 

OK. In the "Holy-Shit Department", I did the accounting on my node, and for the sake of argument, am profitable ~+$2k USD as of right now.

This is a viable alternative to mining for me, but the headache is much worse with channel management/balancing, than managing a hardware farm.

Anyway, figured some of you might appreciate that anecdote.

Explanation

Damn man, how cool is that? 

Part of the reason that in these here parts, we do not use other exchanges to figure out where we are (or where we have been - or even completely about where we might be going).. because we want to have some pretty steady/solid/grounded ideas about when the BTC price breaks certain price points (such as the ATH) without getting prematurely exuberant - even if some of the other exchanges can sometimes give us decently plausible clues in regards to where we might be going.. but according to Bitstamp, we have not yet gotten there... so hold on to ur lil horses!!!!!    


Get the copter ready.... you might be busy in the coming weeks..and you may want to change your intervals/integers.. hahahahaha


Of course, you would not see it.. You have (at least double-layered) blinders on your donkey head.  

Yeah.. Raja_MBZ was a bit adamant about what he was doing and maybe even trying to persuade others to do the same thing, and you can find his posts through my link (but for your convenience -- here).. and of course, we cannot even be sure about how much BTC that he had been working with, but really it seems that he had prematurely concluded that we were either in a bear market or that there was going to be some kind of similar liquidating event such as March 2020.. Not a completely unreasonable gamble for sure, but looks a bit stupid after the fact because it really seems that he was gambling that view with his whole portfolio rather than maybe a fraction of it.. less than 50% might have been a bit more prudent rather than being greedy in regards to such a betting against BTC viewpoint.

Anyhow, not really prudent to have been gambling on that view of things, anyhow...   By the way, he did provide a pretty decent link in one of his posts in terms of being able to track historical touching points of the 200-week moving average (here's a link to that website).  The website shows that the 200-week moving average has been touched a number of times in the past in terms of mostly in bear markets that we have had (such as December 2018, quite a bit in 2015 and even back to 2012).  Yes, the 200-week moving average was even touched in the middle of a bull market in March 2020, and it does seem that Raja_MBZ had gotten screwed up in his considering that the 200-week moving average was more at play than it was, and he was willing to gamble his BTC portfolio based on such retrospectively erroneous (seemingly wishful-thinking view).

By the way, Raja_MBZ was not totally incorrect in terms of a decent likelihood that BTC prices will again hit the 200-week moving average, but it seems that part of his problem was prematurely calling a bear market - which was not only his error.. there were a lot of bitcoin analysts making similar proclamations - and surely the extent of the May/June/July correction (that ended up being greater than 50%) did cause even bitcoin bullish folks to convert over to bearish views regarding where bitcoin prices might have been going in the next 1-2 years.. but seems to have ended up being wrong.  

Another thing is that sooner or later, Raja_MBZ is going to end up being correct in regards to BTC prices going down to meet 200-week moving average prices, but surely there could be a lot of opportunity cost involved in such waiting it out - especially since we have likely been in a bull market all along, and there would be some need to be in a bear market in order to have realistically meaningful chances of touching upon the 200-week moving average outside of some kind of liquidation fluke (like what had occurred in March 2020 - and not even saying that such fluke could not happen again.. but it seems to NOT be a very sound practice to be betting your investment value on possible flukes rather than more likely non-fluke expectation scenarios)...

We can also see from the 200-week moving average chart that in late May 2021 (when Raja_MBZ proclaimed to have sold his BTC at $55k-ish), the 200-week moving average was at about $12.5k, and right now, the chart is showing the 200-week moving average to be at about $16.4k, so the 200-week moving average is steadily moving up.. and surely, it could be the case that the 200-week moving average gets to well above $55k before the actual spot BTC price touches the 200-week moving average and Raja_MBZ is going to be able to buy back his BTC at a profit... surely there could be 1 year or quite a bit more before the 200-week moving average gets up to $55k-ish.. so maybe in that regard, Raja_MBZ believes that he has a lot of time for his sale at $55k-ish to remain potentially profitable.. even though many of us would consider that there is a lot of opportunity costs to be failing/refusing to hold BTC with a hope to buy back at some point that the BTC spot price touches upon the 200-week moving average and hoping that the price will be lower than $55k at such time that the BTC spot price does end up touching upon the 200-week moving average.  What a gamble that Raja_MBZ seems to be making!!! What a gamble!!!

Well said! 

Explanation

Beware HoDLers! If you want to keep your sanity, do not -- I repeat -- DO NOT sell any moderate to large chunks of coin now. The imminent and inevitable mega-rise to stratospheric price levels, this year and the next, will make you want to kill yourself and will eventually transform you into a r0ach-like entity, trying desperately to make some sense out of your senseless decision, which will haunt you until you die. This is serious. It will mess you up badly, as it did mindrust (check out his latest posts to see what I mean).

I'll close with a #haiku that captures the essence of what I'm saying:

When you own Bitcoin,
Like Hotel Carolina,
You can NEVER leave!

So, we've had a tiny little euro ATH - Bitstamp 54267€. From east to west the ATH's are falling - Japan, Pakistan (poor Raja still waiting for a crash to 12k to rebuy from 50K, when he proud(hon)ly sold everything), Turkey (poor mindrust) and EU. Next is the $ ATH. This is the way.

Exactly.  Some of those betting against bitcoin are fucking up by selling too much BTC too soon, and also by failing/refusing to continue to buy BTC (whether at lower prices or higher prices), and they fuck up by failing/refusing to learn from their mistakes.

Sure a few of them will come around, but sometimes when they take a public position to describe how right they are about BTC prices going to go down they are reflecting a kind of strong negativity that they view bitcoin or their inabilities to get away from valuing wealth in dollars.. and putting too much emphasis on short term dollar wealth - just failing to appreciate that bitcoin is a superior form of value storage- at least long term (not always short term).  

I will proclaim that there is nothing wrong with valuing wealth in dollars as long as  being able to keep more than one concept in mind at a time - including that the dollar is ongoingly being debased.. so its current value keeps eroding away if not placed into something more valuable.. such as bitcoin or property or equities or gold.. and like you mentioned LFC, bitcoin is the apex predator of all of those categories of other ways to store value.


Greatest wealth transfer in history is going to have some pain points along the way, but bitcoin is not a zero sum game in the end, because it is bringing value and wealth overall.. even though like you say, there are going to be some who win more than others and some who lose more than others in terms of either how early they adopt or how stubborn they are in their choosing to either not take any bitcoin position or to take an inadequate bitcoin position.


I get what you are saying, but you seem to be mixing metaphores... hahahahaha


I don't know about that.  We can learn from a lot of people, but surely there is some truth regarding wealth management being a product of experience, too... By the way, there are some really smart young folks coming into bitcoin, and they might not be very wealthy.. especially if they just came into bitcoin this year or even this cycle.. I tend to believe that it takes a couple of cycles in bitcoin to really start to build meaningful wealth... even if you are starting out aggressively or even if you already have a decent amount of wealth that you are using..

.....even considering Saylor.. he came into bitcoin with a decent amount of wealth, and people are saying how he went from $2 billion to $4billion or something like that, but think about that as ONLY a 2x increase in wealth.. and consider down the road (not even too far into the future), he has pretty decent chances of having had built 10x to 50x to 100x or even more... yes he started out with a lot and even substantively built more wealth than a lot of folks will ever even dream of having.. but there is a lot more potential there with the passage of time... Let's see what happens?

Explanation

I got you.

By no means. Why would I let them do that?

cool story bro ! heard a lot of players having done the same with such yuge success... that who knows, tell us more in 60...

but your previous corp was really a fascist authoritarian piker dream... did they put cattle future contracts in it .

It's a shame... so they off load their shit books on those? lol...

at this stage... nothing surprise me anymore, and worst the sucker offloading your saving in those shit books, take a fee... lol.

He was scienced to math by ATH.

Where did Proudhon the secret permabull went?