Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 466. (Read 26497179 times)

The knock-out fase will be a joy to watch.

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enough buddy.no fivepeat

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Even you should know that there is a difference between possible and probable (or likely), so surely either of those numbers are possible, even though $1million might not be very likely this cycle, but either $1million or $10 million become more probable in following cycles... how long it takes could be questions of a variety of matters related to adoption like you mentioned.. though I doubt that a large majority of the population needs to be involved in bitcoin for either of those numbers...

Anyhow, if we  frame the matter in other ways such as comparing to gold, we should see that we are not very far off of some of those numbers.. maybe somewhere between $500k and $750k would be gold parity.. so that should not be too hard to reach, maybe this cycle, even if it might not be sustained, and then 10x to 100x gold parity might be a bit of a battle that could take 20-50 years or more to play out, even though many of us might already realize that bitcoin likely is more than 1,000x the value of gold, so that may well take 50-200 years to reach those numbers, but what is the hurry?  There is a lot of distance between here and 1,000x of gold's price (market cap), so that is another 10,000x in bitcoin's price, so in the meantime we just plugging away at the ups and downs.. and yeah there is likely going to be decently sized BTC price moves and/or stepping up and also at other times there may well be perceptions of BTC price stagnation.

... I assume constant dollar values or at least some reasonable debasement in the 2% to 5% per year for the dollar... .but yeah, when we project forward we should be using dollar values from today, so it may well be the case that the actual (or nominal) bitcoin prices will end up even going higher.

Sure maybe $1 million does not happen in this cycle or the next cycle or even the cycle after that, so the happening of $1 million or how long it takes to get to 1 million would surely affect how long we might speculate that it might take to reach $10 million.  Even if I am not personally counting on such high numbers, I am not going to rule them out merely because the numbers sound BIG relatively where we are at right now.. just like right now seems pretty BIG compared to where we were in 2015, too..

Yeah I also think about the recovery thing. And the result might be good, but I'm not sure I want to go through the crisis.

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For either number to be possible, bitcoin would need something that is not there yet: support from a large (if not a majority) swath of the population in bigger countries or blocks and governments that are at least acquiescing.

Sometimes, I think that bitcoin would be a "recovery" currency after a valley of some sort, but other times, when I feel more optimistic, believe that we can push through in one smoother rise.
EDIT: That said, it is hard for me to see bitcoin at $10mil/per at June 2024 $ values.

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Something else to consider is that "early" $10 million BTC might really mean the USD has crashed/there has been crazy inflation. Which would not necessarily be a good outcome.

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Welcome to the upcoming 2024 presidential debate highlights


Biden....You stole classified documents and refused to return them

Trump...Folks, what happened at Mar-a-Lago is a disgrace, an absolute disgrace. Never before in the history of our great country has there been such an abuse of power. They raided my beautiful home, Mar-a-Lago, looking for so-called "classified documents." It's a witch hunt, plain and simple. The radical left and the fake news media are out to get me because they know I'm the only one standing up for you, the American people. They didn't have to do it this way. They could have asked nicely, and we would have cooperated fully, like we always do. But no, they chose to storm in, guns blazing, like we were some kind of criminals. Unbelievable. They want to intimidate us, to silence us, but we won't let them. This is just another attempt to stop our movement, but it's not going to work. We're stronger than ever, and we're going to take back our country!

Biden....The election wasn't stolen you fool. C'mon man! You lost in 66 court cases, many overseen by judges you appointed. There's zero evidence. Get over it man.

Trump...Folks, we all know what happened. The 2020 election was stolen. It was a rigged election, the most corrupt in the history of our country. We had millions and millions of votes that were just mysteriously found, all for Joe Biden. Can you believe it? They stopped counting in key states where we were leading by a lot, then suddenly, boom, all these votes come in for Biden in the middle of the night. It's a disgrace.
We had more votes than any sitting president in history, and yet they want us to believe that Joe Biden, who campaigned from his basement, got more votes than Barack Obama? Give me a break. The fake news media, the big tech giants, and the Democrats all conspired to take this election away from the American people. We can't let this happen. We need to fight back and ensure that our elections are free, fair, and honest. We're not going to let them get away with this!

Biden....You're a convicted felon man

Trump.....Folks, what they're doing to me in New York is a total and complete witch hunt. These 38 felony convictions, it's a joke, an absolute joke. The judge is conflicted.  This is the radical left, the corrupt prosecutors, and the fake news media all working together to take me down because they know they can't beat us at the ballot box. They have nothing, absolutely nothing, but they want to make it look like I'm some kind of criminal.
It's all political. They're targeting me because I stand up for you, the American people, and they can't stand it. They can't stand that we exposed the swamp, that we brought jobs back, that we secured our borders, and that we made America great again. They want to silence us, but it's not going to happen. We will continue to fight, we will continue to win, and we will continue to make America great again!

Biden.....Here's the deal...You've been found liable for sexual assault man.

Trump...Folks, it's unbelievable what's happening. The civil sexual assault case against me—it's a complete sham, a total disgrace. The system is rigged, absolutely rigged, against people like us who want to make America great again. They found me liable, but it's all based on lies, all lies. This is just another attempt by the radical left and the fake news media to destroy me because they know they can't beat me any other way. The accusations are false, totally false. I don't even know these people. They come out of nowhere with these ridiculous claims from decades ago. It's all part of a coordinated effort to take me down. They want to distract us from the real issues, like the economy, our borders, and our national security. But we're not going to let them. We're going to keep fighting, we're going to keep winning, and we're going to continue to put America first!

Biden.....You've been indicted on 4 counts for conspiring to stop the peaceful transfer of power using fraudulent fake electors among other things.

Trump....Folks, this indictment against me regarding the so-called insurrection is a total and complete sham. It's a witch hunt, plain and simple. They are trying to pin this on me, but everyone knows the real story. We had a peaceful rally, a rally filled with love and patriotism. We were standing up for our country, for free and fair elections. But the radical left, the Democrats, and their friends in the fake news media, they want to twist this around. They want to make me the villain because they know they can't beat me at the ballot box. They talk about an insurrection, but what about the violence and destruction from Antifa and BLM? They don't talk about that. It's a double standard, a disgrace.
This indictment is just another attempt to silence us, to stop our movement. But we're not going to let them. We're stronger than ever, and we're going to continue to fight for our country. We're going to continue to make America great again, no matter what they throw at us!

Biden... How's your real estate business in New York doing?

Trump...Folks, the New York business fraud case against me is a total scam, an absolute disgrace. It's a politically motivated witch hunt by the radical left, and everyone knows it. They've been after me from day one because they can't stand that we made America great again. They can't stand that we brought jobs back, lowered taxes, and stood up for our great country. The judge is corrupt. They're claiming my businesses committed fraud, but it's all lies. My businesses are some of the best in the world, the most successful. We've done everything by the book, everything perfectly. But they don't care about the truth. They only care about trying to take me down because they know they can't beat us at the ballot box. This is about stopping our movement, but we're not going to let them. We're going to fight back, we're going to win, and we're going to keep making America great again. The American people see through this, and they know it's all a big, fat hoax. We're stronger than ever, and we're not going to let these corrupt politicians and prosecutors get away with this!

Biden.....How's that other indictment going down in Georgia?

Trump...Folks, the Georgia election case indictment against me is a total and complete sham. It's yet another witch hunt by the radical left, the Democrats, and their friends in the fake news media. They can't stand that we exposed the fraud and corruption in the 2020 election, so now they're coming after me with these bogus charges. They're claiming that I tried to overturn the election results, but all I did was fight for the integrity of our elections, to make sure every legal vote was counted and every illegal vote was thrown out. We had massive evidence of fraud, and they know it. But instead of addressing the fraud, they want to indict me and silence our movement. This is all political. They want to stop us because they know we're winning. They know that we're going to take back the White House and make America great again. But we're not going to let them get away with this. We're going to fight back, we're going to win, and we're going to restore honesty and integrity to our elections. The American people are with us, and we're going to keep fighting for them!


Biden...Will you shut up man....

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Wow!!!!!

That is a wee bit bearish.

Sure, I am not trying to count my chickens before they hatch, but still there are ONLY 21 million coins.. so I cannot see from where all the sellers of coins are coming..  maybe you are presuming fractional reserve to death.. but there is ONLY so much of that that can be done, too...  but hey, whatever, its a free world, you are free to have your "lil theories," and you might even end up potentially being correct.  Almost anything is possible.


These can be difficult decisions in regards to how much cash to hold onto versus how much to put into bitcoin right away.. or if we are having a dip, then how much do I want to buy at certain dip locations... since sometimes it can take a bit of time for any new purchases to get into profits...

Just to repeat my own story, I remember some coins that I bought around $500 at the peak of the November 2015 price run, and I bought them because I was nervous that the actual BTC price was going higher than my average costs per coin (and i thought that it might never return below $500 again).. but then soon after my BTC purchase, the BTC price corrected, and we did not get back above $500 per coin until the end of May 2016.. so I was a bit bummed out about that particular panic purchase.. .and even when the BTC price shot above $500 at the end of May 2016, we did again end up temporarily revisiting $500 around August for the supposed Bitfinex hackening.. and then there were surely a lot of threats that we were returning to $500 in early 2017.... yet those threats did not end up materializing, instead the opposite happened... so my largely FOMO purchase at $500 ended up being a decently reasonable purchase, even though surely i could have had gotten those there coins a wee bit cheaper if I had had my head on (wits about me) a wee bit MOAR better. 



Yeah, but we got there 2 months prior to the halvening.. which surely should be interesting in and of itself... at least from my perspective.

Remember in 2019 we had a 3.5x price rise from around $4,200 to $13,880 which was about 1 year before the 2020 halvening... so yeah, we did not even reach the halvening price.. ..and yeah, in late 2019, we corrected much of the gain, but not the whole thing and the March 2020 correction was likely a fluke.. but yeah, sure we can count it.. since everything ultimately counts...

And yeah, maybe we could say that the $27k to $73,794 would be way smaller than the 2019 price jump (of around 2.7 in 4.5-ish months), but it also crossed into ATH territories supra $69k, and after more than 4 months, since we got above $55k at the end of February, we still have not gotten back down to $55k... whether getting back down to $55k happens or not, would not even convert these already existing facts into bearish facts.. at least from the perspective of this seemingly overly optimistic cat.

In other words, the whole comparison of what happened in 2019 as compared with what is happening now seems like something to this here cat, but whatever, maybe i am overly optimistic about facts that are not as bullish as they seem... or maybe I am reading too much bullishness into where we got (so far) versus where we could have had gotten so far.


Why would it be any larger of a barrier than $10k?


We still have the pattern until we don't so I don't see much value in negating or poo pooing the pattern prior to the pattern even being broken..

Yeah.. whine whine whine because the price is not going up fast enough.. but it is.. there is no problem where we are at.. and yeah, maybe we will not get to $1million this year or next year, but so what.. it still seems we have decently good chances to continue to go up, whatever the numbers end up being... As a tentative ballpark idea, I still like $120k to $180k for 2024 and higher numbers for 2025.


There is nothing wrong with being realistic, but also considering the higher numbers too, even if their odds (by definition) are lower than the lower numbers.


You are starting to beg for some kind of a slappening, no?  Maybe batman slapping a bear might be a good image?