Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4689. (Read 26608322 times)
September 24, 2021, 04:26:29 PM
Here's my new working theory on how the next bear market will begin...it's like they are already breadcrumbing it to the public.
September 24, 2021, 04:22:19 PM
The Lightning Week from Heaven/Hell
(NOTE: This may not flow or make any sense, as I just starting typing random shit!)
So it has been about a week since I got this LN Node running, and I must say, I am having mixed feelings about this. I know it still early in the game.
...
(NOTE: This may not flow or make any sense, as I just starting typing random shit!)
So it has been about a week since I got this LN Node running, and I must say, I am having mixed feelings about this. I know it still early in the game.
...
Bob had similar experiences a few years ago.
...
Playing with it over the last 4 months has been... well... a bit of a slog TBH as things were approaching the 0.6 release.
Funded about 0.5 BTC to play with across a bunch of channels, pulled out 0.26 BTC after shutting everything down. Fucked around with Satoshi's place a bit, bought some stickers, but I believe most of the 0.24 BTC I didn't get back was blown on channel open/close fees, and possibly just "lost" due to bugs and shit.
Whatever.
...
Playing with it over the last 4 months has been... well... a bit of a slog TBH as things were approaching the 0.6 release.
Funded about 0.5 BTC to play with across a bunch of channels, pulled out 0.26 BTC after shutting everything down. Fucked around with Satoshi's place a bit, bought some stickers, but I believe most of the 0.24 BTC I didn't get back was blown on channel open/close fees, and possibly just "lost" due to bugs and shit.
Whatever.
...
September 24, 2021, 04:13:11 PM
The Lightning Week from Heaven/Hell
(NOTE: This may not flow or make any sense, as I just starting typing random shit!)
So it has been about a week since I got this LN Node running, and I must say, I am having mixed feelings about this. I know it still early in the game.
I wanted a really technical explanation of how it actually works. (They need to stop with that Alice and Bob scenario as it doesn’t work like that in the real world)
It seems the LN Developers have deliberately shut out any reference to the onChain Bitcoin, which is a good and a bad thing I guess. They are trying to get us to not think about the onChain Bitcoin while using LN. In fact, trying to get the private keys for your onChain BTC wallet is a mission on its own.
I am thankful I got into it to really understand how it works under the hood. I couldn’t wrap my head around how it opens and closes channels. Now, having my own LN node, I am able to follow the blockchain and see what it is doing and how it is doing it!. Very, very, very friggen clever!
Again I had the mindset to only use what funds I had floating around with exposing any offline wallets. Started with 0.125 and ended up over 1BTC committed.
My goal was to be the Biggest Public LN node in Australia. There are some TOR nodes which are bigger but I wanted to be a public node and allow anyone and everyone to connect back to me, and also starting a WO LN Hub. Which we did! (thanks cAPSLOCK/Bob/Syke/machasm and Elwar (joining Shortly))
What are my mixed feelings?
It just doesn’t feel smooth, moving payments and balancing payments wasn’t as easy as I thought. To me it seems the fees are the bottleneck on this whole experience. I also need to baby the node. Constantly watching for unbalance channels etc.
I seemed to find myself spending more time tinkering and watching my LN node than actually working. I would randomly login to see what is happening and how many payment routing I had done. Productivity for my real job was at an all time low this week. (there are probably some tools out there or i can write ascript to check, but...)
What are some of the things they don’t mention...
The thing that is worth noting is that every channel you have opened will eventually be a UTXO, what does that mean? 50 channels will mean you have 50 UTXO. Is that a problem? it could be especially when onChain fees are very high. I learnt this the hard way many many years ago, I had over 2000+ UTXO in one wallet and tried to transfer it to a new wallet and the size of the transaction was about 250kb, or 25% of a block and this was during the massive mempool attacks of 2017/18, and before Segwit, those 2000+ transaction were full weighted UTXO. So I started the journey with 1 UTXO to fund my LN Node and could potentially end up with 100's of UTXO, which means the cost of opening another channel in the future will be double/triple/quadruple.... the amount, as I will need to include multiple UTXO to make up one channel..
What pissed me off, back then, was I accidentally included multiple DUST UTXO. The fee to move that dust was 100times more than the DUST itself!
Not setting channel fees properly was another big issue. By the time I woke up and logged in, I found my biggest channel had all its funds moved to the other side, and I had only collect 52SAT in fees. Remember it cost roughly 154 SATS to open and 154 SATS to close a channel (1SAT/vByte), and that is you are only using one UTXO. More UTXO, bigger mempool and the cost rises.
From my perspective, although there are over 16K public nodes and many many more TOR nodes, routing payments is still a bit of a challenge. I still cannot balance my channels effectively and cheaply as the liquidity on most paths seems to be one sided.
Crazy as it sounds, currently as it stands, it is cheaper for me to close the channel and re-open it onChain. 1sat/vByte is cheaper than anything you will find in LN at the moment. I tried to balance a 5M SAT channel and the cost was over 1,000SAT and that is if there was enough liquidity on the hops it would take. (Lightning was meant to be the answer to onChain transactions... Right???..)
I have found a script that handles the channel re-balance and it tries to find a path to help re-balance your channels and minimal cost, it evaluates hundreds of different paths and ALL just fails! I have only every had 1 successful re-balance of 75K SAT and it cost me 450SAT.. Again opening and closing onChain would have been cheaper!
Final thoughts....
You need to think about where you position in the grand scheme of things and open channels based on that, don’t just open channels to everyone and anyone.
You want route and compete with the big boys, then you better have more than 1BTC ready!
Don’t bother with any tutorials just get into it and start using it, you will learn heaps more!
Fees, still working out what to say about this, there are fundamental issue with this, especially when everyone is trying to make some sort of profit or even breakeven, it could potentially halt the network or become detrimental to the end user, and that is partly what I am seeing.
Using the example above,. Of my 75K SAT movement, I will need to somehow recoup my cost, so I need to make sure my channel is fees are set higher in the short term to help cover that cost, as there is no guarantees that the fund will be cycling back and forth. (Like the Alice and Bob scenario). So now my fees are higher, so whoever re-balances through me will need to raise their fees and so on and so on.
Again, I am still learning...
(NOTE: This may not flow or make any sense, as I just starting typing random shit!)
So it has been about a week since I got this LN Node running, and I must say, I am having mixed feelings about this. I know it still early in the game.
I wanted a really technical explanation of how it actually works. (They need to stop with that Alice and Bob scenario as it doesn’t work like that in the real world)
It seems the LN Developers have deliberately shut out any reference to the onChain Bitcoin, which is a good and a bad thing I guess. They are trying to get us to not think about the onChain Bitcoin while using LN. In fact, trying to get the private keys for your onChain BTC wallet is a mission on its own.
I am thankful I got into it to really understand how it works under the hood. I couldn’t wrap my head around how it opens and closes channels. Now, having my own LN node, I am able to follow the blockchain and see what it is doing and how it is doing it!. Very, very, very friggen clever!
Again I had the mindset to only use what funds I had floating around with exposing any offline wallets. Started with 0.125 and ended up over 1BTC committed.
My goal was to be the Biggest Public LN node in Australia. There are some TOR nodes which are bigger but I wanted to be a public node and allow anyone and everyone to connect back to me, and also starting a WO LN Hub. Which we did! (thanks cAPSLOCK/Bob/Syke/machasm and Elwar (joining Shortly))
What are my mixed feelings?
It just doesn’t feel smooth, moving payments and balancing payments wasn’t as easy as I thought. To me it seems the fees are the bottleneck on this whole experience. I also need to baby the node. Constantly watching for unbalance channels etc.
I seemed to find myself spending more time tinkering and watching my LN node than actually working. I would randomly login to see what is happening and how many payment routing I had done. Productivity for my real job was at an all time low this week. (there are probably some tools out there or i can write ascript to check, but...)
What are some of the things they don’t mention...
The thing that is worth noting is that every channel you have opened will eventually be a UTXO, what does that mean? 50 channels will mean you have 50 UTXO. Is that a problem? it could be especially when onChain fees are very high. I learnt this the hard way many many years ago, I had over 2000+ UTXO in one wallet and tried to transfer it to a new wallet and the size of the transaction was about 250kb, or 25% of a block and this was during the massive mempool attacks of 2017/18, and before Segwit, those 2000+ transaction were full weighted UTXO. So I started the journey with 1 UTXO to fund my LN Node and could potentially end up with 100's of UTXO, which means the cost of opening another channel in the future will be double/triple/quadruple.... the amount, as I will need to include multiple UTXO to make up one channel..
What pissed me off, back then, was I accidentally included multiple DUST UTXO. The fee to move that dust was 100times more than the DUST itself!
Not setting channel fees properly was another big issue. By the time I woke up and logged in, I found my biggest channel had all its funds moved to the other side, and I had only collect 52SAT in fees. Remember it cost roughly 154 SATS to open and 154 SATS to close a channel (1SAT/vByte), and that is you are only using one UTXO. More UTXO, bigger mempool and the cost rises.
From my perspective, although there are over 16K public nodes and many many more TOR nodes, routing payments is still a bit of a challenge. I still cannot balance my channels effectively and cheaply as the liquidity on most paths seems to be one sided.
Crazy as it sounds, currently as it stands, it is cheaper for me to close the channel and re-open it onChain. 1sat/vByte is cheaper than anything you will find in LN at the moment. I tried to balance a 5M SAT channel and the cost was over 1,000SAT and that is if there was enough liquidity on the hops it would take. (Lightning was meant to be the answer to onChain transactions... Right???..)
I have found a script that handles the channel re-balance and it tries to find a path to help re-balance your channels and minimal cost, it evaluates hundreds of different paths and ALL just fails! I have only every had 1 successful re-balance of 75K SAT and it cost me 450SAT.. Again opening and closing onChain would have been cheaper!
Final thoughts....
You need to think about where you position in the grand scheme of things and open channels based on that, don’t just open channels to everyone and anyone.
You want route and compete with the big boys, then you better have more than 1BTC ready!
Don’t bother with any tutorials just get into it and start using it, you will learn heaps more!
Fees, still working out what to say about this, there are fundamental issue with this, especially when everyone is trying to make some sort of profit or even breakeven, it could potentially halt the network or become detrimental to the end user, and that is partly what I am seeing.
Using the example above,. Of my 75K SAT movement, I will need to somehow recoup my cost, so I need to make sure my channel is fees are set higher in the short term to help cover that cost, as there is no guarantees that the fund will be cycling back and forth. (Like the Alice and Bob scenario). So now my fees are higher, so whoever re-balances through me will need to raise their fees and so on and so on.
Again, I am still learning...
September 24, 2021, 04:12:59 PM
F***ing Bobby the n00b
Hope he’s right for the first time of his predicting career
Used to be on the wrong side of the table, like always
Hope he’s right for the first time of his predicting career
Used to be on the wrong side of the table, like always
He spends way too much time proclaiming what he wants to happen, than accurately predicting what will happen using...something. Some data. Anything.
ie. A blowhard cheerleader.
September 24, 2021, 04:11:40 PM
10 Merit to the first person to say who this is 
Hasbulla Magomedov
Apparently a midget fighter?
https://www.lifesizecutouts.com.au/hasbulla-magomedov-100.html
Excuse me, he is not an Midget. They prefer to be called Little Person if any
As you can see by the Picture he became a Advocate for the Bitcoin Standard..
September 24, 2021, 04:01:36 PM
September 24, 2021, 03:52:06 PM
September 24, 2021, 03:42:17 PM
China's pseudo-communistic government is diametrically opposed to Bitcoin, ideology wise.
Understanding and believing in Bitcoin must feel to fiat evangelists like a gender conversion.
What's the analogy again...?
Well, it's not a matter when they will do it, but a question of when is the pain high enough that they'll have to do it.
EDIT: added details. english probably still a bit sketchy, though...
Understanding and believing in Bitcoin must feel to fiat evangelists like a gender conversion.
What's the analogy again...?
Well, it's not a matter when they will do it, but a question of when is the pain high enough that they'll have to do it.
EDIT: added details. english probably still a bit sketchy, though...
September 24, 2021, 03:30:55 PM
September 24, 2021, 03:20:19 PM
F***ing Bobby the n00b
Hope he’s right for the first time of his predicting career
Used to be on the wrong side of the table, like always
Hope he’s right for the first time of his predicting career
Used to be on the wrong side of the table, like always
September 24, 2021, 03:13:12 PM
I'm pretty sure these contradictions were beaten up in various CSW related threads on this forum
such as this one:
SCAM: Bitcoin SV (BSV) - fake team member and plagiarized white paper
or this one
Craig Steven Wright is a liar and a fraud - Tulip Trust addresses signed message
Those scam threads are always a good read... "You will now discover me when pissed off". Yes. That's exactly what Satoshi sounded like in his posts. Lol. (Actually there are a few people who are smart enough to be him that are involved with crypto that DO sound like him but CSW is NOT one of them lol)
But there was a Phinnaeus Gage post in there.
That gave me a sad.
September 24, 2021, 03:12:56 PM
@bobbyclee
Don’t panic: #China has just banned #Bitcoin again!
This time, the ban targets trading on offshore exchanges (using VPN), as well as using local agents or OTC services to exchange from CNY to & from USDT.
As bad as this may sound, it’s actually NOT the last nail in the coffin!
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441349127632154638?s=21
@bobbyclee
And for the curious:
Yes, I still stand by my prior prediction that we will indeed see another bull market #Bitcoin rally by the end of this year. It’ll be a huge FOMO rally, pushing $BTC prices to above $150k, likely over $200k or $250k. And maybe even a chance to hit $333k!
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441354185841135622?s=21
@bobbyclee
#China banning #Bitcoin is ALWAYS a great catalyst for a bull market run for $BTC.
Who remembers China’s bitcoin exchange ban in Sep 2017? The bull market rally that followed was EPIC!
So glad to see China #PBOC helping to let Bitcoin history repeat itself again in 2021. 😁😁
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441357172122603524?s=21
@bobbyclee
Also, mini flash crash that followed the Chinese PBOC announcement is just that: small, and short.
I wouldn’t be surprised if $BTC quickly recover to the $44k level as before the news came out today.
You cry wolf too many times, the markets stops believing you.
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441460577973334016?s=21
SEND IT…..
Don’t panic: #China has just banned #Bitcoin again!
This time, the ban targets trading on offshore exchanges (using VPN), as well as using local agents or OTC services to exchange from CNY to & from USDT.
As bad as this may sound, it’s actually NOT the last nail in the coffin!
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441349127632154638?s=21
@bobbyclee
And for the curious:
Yes, I still stand by my prior prediction that we will indeed see another bull market #Bitcoin rally by the end of this year. It’ll be a huge FOMO rally, pushing $BTC prices to above $150k, likely over $200k or $250k. And maybe even a chance to hit $333k!
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441354185841135622?s=21
@bobbyclee
#China banning #Bitcoin is ALWAYS a great catalyst for a bull market run for $BTC.
Who remembers China’s bitcoin exchange ban in Sep 2017? The bull market rally that followed was EPIC!
So glad to see China #PBOC helping to let Bitcoin history repeat itself again in 2021. 😁😁
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441357172122603524?s=21
@bobbyclee
Also, mini flash crash that followed the Chinese PBOC announcement is just that: small, and short.
I wouldn’t be surprised if $BTC quickly recover to the $44k level as before the news came out today.
You cry wolf too many times, the markets stops believing you.
https://twitter.com/bobbyclee/status/1441460577973334016?s=21
SEND IT…..
September 24, 2021, 03:10:45 PM
September 24, 2021, 03:09:02 PM
https://twitter.com/lilmoonlambo/status/1441335023920037888?s=21
Aged memes new standard.
PBOC, bans…
Bitcoin yet again.
Aged memes new standard.
PBOC, bans…
Bitcoin yet again.
September 24, 2021, 03:01:26 PM
September 24, 2021, 02:58:42 PM
If you sell your #bitcoin because an authoritarian government doesn’t like it, you don’t understand https://twitter.com/linaseiche/status/1441383072566374406?s=21
September 24, 2021, 02:25:56 PM
And China bans crypto, Lol,
https://twitter.com/CrypDay/status/1441396847516413964/photo/1
We should get all bullish about it.
https://twitter.com/CrypDay/status/1441396847516413964/photo/1
We should get all bullish about it.
September 24, 2021, 02:16:14 PM
WRT to China, I'll just leave this here...YMMV 
Where's the link for this?
September 24, 2021, 02:01:26 PM
September 24, 2021, 02:01:20 PM
WRT to China, I'll just leave this here...YMMV
Where's the link for this?
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