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I sold nothing in 2017 (apart from all the fork coins). I felt like an idiot for quite a while, missing out on life changing money at the time, not knowing if/when it would return. Luckily for me, my greed or idiocy in 2017 has served me well as I’m sure you can imagine, looking at the price today.
I sold 6 on the way up to the ATH this year. I actually managed to buy them all back on the way down to 29k & still have over six figures in fiat in my bank account.
Many times it can be quite difficult to get back the amount that you sell, but of course, if you sell with the purpose of NOT giving any shits about whether you get them back or not, then you are likely more empowered to not be emotional.
Of course, you already know that I do not have any problems with guys selling BTC on the way up, and especially once you get to a certain level of profits, and also any of us who are able to use Excel or even a piece of paper and a pen, should be able to trajectory out some of the values in order to have better informed decisions regarding how much we might want to shave off at certain levels, and surely I find Excel to be quite powerful in regards to allowing me to tweak my numbers around without getting totally confused or having to do too much math to make sure that I am really thinking about the trajectories rather than getting caught up with transcribing or having to recalculate over and over again.
So I do find it a wee bit easier to trajectory out in accordance with price expectations rather than time expectations, but of course, you can trajectory out in either or both regards too, and if you save some of your earlier drafts (which is also easy to do with Excel), you can see how your trajectories might change over time, how accurate you might have been in your earlier projections, and whether you might be able to learn from how you had projected in the past in terms of whether or not you are in the ballpark of expectations.. not that you even need to be correct about your projections to be able to see if you are protecting yourself overall in terms of BTC prices that could go in either direction in the short term or even in the longer term (in spite of expectations).
Another one of my personal examples was my 2015/2016 projection regarding the amount of BTC that I would sell on the way up in the anticipated upcoming cycle, if such a cycle were to occur. I had some pretty damned BIG sales planned up to like $20k to $30k, which would have risen to the level of selling around 20% to 30% of my stash, but as the BTC prices were rising into the $2k to $3ks in 2017, I had come to appreciate that I did not want to be stuck with so much damned fiat - even if the BTC price would go up and down.. I just did feel that I needed to play that BIGGEDly with my BTC stash, so tempered down my sales amounts in order that I would not end up selling so much BTC. which ended up to bring me to around 12% sales by the time we got to the 2017 peak of $19,666.. and surely I was o.k. with that and it still seemed like a whole hell of a lot of cash..
So then I ended up taking a snap shot of where my portfolio balances were around the top in 2017 in terms of quantity of cash and quantity of bitcoin, and then I could use that as a trajectory for where I wanted to be when we got back to $20k on the next run (if it were to happen), and really, even though I still will proclaim that I had some various fuck-ups along the way (and surely I doubt that it is necessary for me to describe my fuck-ups in detail), I still was able to largely meet and exceed my BTC accumulation goals in terms of how much cash and BTC to have on hand by the time we reached 2017 again.. so it is quite interesting to see, and also interesting to see that even though I sold all the way up to $64, 895 (Based on structuring/staggering of the intervals, I think that my highest sell was around $63k), yet I can see that my BTC balance was still higher at $64,895 (in April 2021) than it was at $19,666 (in 2017), which surely I consider to be a kind of strategic accomplishment.. especially accounting for my personal details that are not all shared here in spite of all the frequently disclosing gobbledy-gook that can be read from me in this here thread from time to time.
So part of my punchline agreement with you LFC is that there is some power in feeling that you are getting ahead of BTC's price performance in some kind of way, and you make some decisions and you execute, while you let the BTC price come to you, and if the BTC price does not come to you, then you just go on with your life and accept your prior decisions/executions. Sure, you might not have been thinking about your decisions and executions in such a way, yet if you were, then all the more power to you...
By the way, I do appreciate that any of us might make some kind of an initial execution such as selling a certain quantity of BTC, but we might not have any exact price point to buy them back, yet we might see an opportunity that arises (such as a price drop), and thereafter be in a position to take advantage of such opportunity...so the plans are not always outlined with specificity in advance even though there might be some parameters that are already in mind during the initial execution (the sales of some BTC on the way up in your case)
Initially I was planning to sell quite a lot of my stash during this bull run (laddered sells every $5,000 from $50,000 to $160,000 if we’re lucky enough to go that high or higher). After much thinking, there isn't much else to put your fiat in is there. I’m mid 30’s, there’s certainly no point having vast amounts of fiat in the bank is there. I plan to sell possibly 30% (which is still a lot of money as you can imagine) & invest a bit in property & the S&P500.
I’ll have more than enough cash aside too which will get me through the next 3.5 or so years until we start the ascent in the next bull market.
These are pretty BIG decisions regarding where to put your value, and surely they are likely to be much better informed if you have been bantering them around (even if just within your own head) for the past few years.
Surely, when I came into BTC in late 2013, I already had a pretty decently diversified portfolio, so I never really felt any need to establish outside of BTC diversification. I was getting into BTC to diversify out of some of the too much cash-based investments that I already had. I don't have any problem with guys (and gal) taking some measures to diversify some of their investment outside of BTC (I am not talking about shitcoins, here) in order to feel that you do not have so much god damned value ONLY in BTC (and perhaps cash), so yeah, it is good to have a bit more diversification in some other stuff such as equities and property .. and I am not so much of a fan of PMs because it seems that bitcoin is eating their lunch and going to continue to eat their lunch... but sure some of your diversification out of bitcoin might end up becoming less liquid too.. or even cause some geographical tie downs.. but you may well already have some geographic tie downs anyhow, so sometimes owning property in areas that you are already somewhat tied down will not create too many additional burdens on you.. and sure if you are living in the properties (or storing your lambos, blow and hookers there... should I mention guns and butter too, or no?) then there can be some value in that, too.
I don’t want to sell 75% of my stash at maybe $100,000 & see $700,000 per coin or something in 2025.
Even though I got up to 12% in BTC sold last time around (in 2017 at $19,666), I am trajectoring out that my stash does not even shrink to lower than 90% in the future.. even if BTC prices were to go into the several millions of dollars per coin** and still that amount of cash that would be building up (generated from the sales of BTC) still seems like way too much for me to spend.. so I am still considering if there might be some ways to spend more (first world problems, for sure).
**Yes my current BTC price trajectory of my personal holdings goes into the several millions.. and my trajectory kind of had to be expanded.. and I remember in 2015/2016 and even 2017, my BTC price trajectory of my holdings only slowly went up and the tops were in the lower thousands in 2015 and 2016 and then getting into 2017, the trajectory may have just gone to $20k at most (which would have been several times more than the then current price... like 6x or higher), but as the BTC price goes up the trajectory automatically goes up too within a kind of multiple of where the price is currently at, and I have found it personally helpful to trajectory out nearly 100x.. even though, there is real no need for the BTC price to go that high in order for me to be satisfied, but it seems good to have some ideas about how many BTC are projected to be in my holdings at various points in the trajectory.. whether looking at $70k or $150k, $500k, $1.5 million or $4 million... and really it becomes much easier to see (and verify) that the amount of BTC does not even need to go down very much at all as the BTC price goes up in order to end up stacking up outrageous amounts of fiat.. that might be currently beyond my abilities to spend, and I will have to try to figure out that part with the passage of time.. including even perhaps spending more now or at various earlier points in order to NOT have so much fiat stacked (in some sense, too much)Playing around with big money is not easy, is it.
When you plot it out on paper it seems kind of theoretical, but when you end up executing or you are placed in an executing position, it becomes the place where the rubber hits the road.. and a kind of test comes regarding whether you are going to do what you really theorized that you were going to do.. and for sure, sometimes you may well need to tweak based on the concreteness of actual execution, versus the theory of such execution.
Not a bad problem to have, but still can be a wee bit more work than otherwise anticipated. So, instead of going to flip burgers for three days, sometimes some of us might be saying that we spent three days moving numbers around on a piece of paper (Excel spreadsheet).. and when we moved them one way, we were not satisfied, but we made a copy, just in case that were to make us happy, then we moved the numbers another way, and that did not make us happy either, so we went back to the first, and we ended up throwing both out and the third one was not too satisfying either, but in the end some kind of tentative resolution was arrived at... and it ONLY took three days to accomplish, and I am exhausted..
We are an elite band of gentlemen, our decisions will shape the future of our family bloodline.
Gosh.. yes.. I do have a kind of future project in mind.. that I have to work on and it may well involve one or two trusts.. but shit.. would be nice to get that set up at some point beyond just some rumblings in my head.
As a kind of elite gentleman in practice.. I did set up another project in recent times, in which pretty much I was helping out some people (and yes, I get some benefits from the whole matter too.. and it involves my money (less than 3% of my value and decently a lot for them) and they are using that money for good purpose(s).. so there is that part of gentleman-ness too).
gogogogggrrr 