Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4844. (Read 26607528 times)

Explanation

Talk about cool, yet unuseful, visualisation of bitcoin price:


https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1430998256977383428?s=20

Axes represent the years, starting from "9" you have 2009, then at "12" you have 2010 "etc .... each quarter turn is a year, each full turn is a halving cycle (approximately). The purple line is the price of Bitcoin, on a logarithmic scale.
The representation is cool, but the scientific value is nil.

You can represent also another thing in satoshi's scale, obviously they,re spiralling on the other direction:



https://twitter.com/LynAldenContact/status/1430998265596633095?s=20

More at:
https://clockworkpartners.com/

I like your thinking and this is something I did last year and enjoying the benefits of
this year but you are posting off topic here.

Have a look at this thread in the trading discussion board.

How weird is it to borrow money and invest into Bitcoin?

---

Traditionally September has not been a great month for Bitcoin but remember back in
April we said traditionally April was one of the best months and it turned into a
damp squib, hopefully September can buck the historical data.

I won't go to the dance studio for the next week or two, because I'm going to buy more bitcoins.

100% so. We could hit an ATH already in September. After that the face-melting mother of all pumps will start. That's all SOMA of course. 

Explanation

Looks like we’re about to bounce off the trend line. If things continue as they are, I could see hitting new highs in early October. Certainly that would be the beginning of a run to a blow off top sometime in early December. That is if you believe in fractals or stock to flow ratios.

restricted by whom?
import restrictions or some kind of safety regulations?

Hey, Phil, did you know that Blockstream bought Spondoolies?
...memories from a while ago.

Explanation

Morning!

So, I bought some BTC today for the first time since 2014.

I decided to do a little experiment, I was offered a loan from a company (Qliro) and accepted, I borrowed 20 000:- (about 2300 USD), I set aside four months worth of payments on the loan (this will be used to pay of the loan for the coming four months) and bought btc for the rest (17500:- (about 2000 USD)) and I put those btc in a separate wallet.

Now I'm going to sell these btc in December when we go skyrocketing and the little experiment here is to see how much money I will make on this.
The plan is of course to repay the loan in full in December and do something fun with the profit.
I have been offered to up the loan with another 50 000:-, I might do that, still thinking about it.

So, as you can see the whole point is to make money without having to put in any of my own.

yeah we have a few hundred kwatt in solar arrays. We are adding 500 more due to the good mining this yeah.

most people don’t  understand that solar is really cheap and does work.

oil coal and gas companies own a shit ton of solar tech and simply restrict it.

yet another subsidy for them and against solar.

Every rooftop can generate power. it is a way to create real esate.

800 to 1000 watt panels could be built right now rather than 350-400 watt panels.

My home could do 30 panels or 12k system which is about 2kwatt an hour 24/7/365 if set to the grid.

if the better panels were allowed i could do 2x that. or 4x watt an hour about 100kwatt a day.
my summer rate is 16 cents so 8 could do 16 dollars a day if the better panels were not restricted.

it is coming maybe 5-10,years.

It's "renewables" and thus unreliable. If your miners, staff, whatever are free it might make sense but otherwise, you're probably better off paying a bit more for electricity that's available 24/7.

Besides that though, this is the UK so there are probably daft regulations which would make it hard to do profitably.

Oh gawd, Biodom.. you and your lame-ass gotchas.  Are you trying to confuse peeps with your assertion of nonsense theories?

Do you have any kind of question within your post that you are needing to clarifying?

You want to know how much BTC that I have, and what constitutes rich as fuck?  oh gawd.. that seems ridiculous.

You want to suggest that various aspects of my suggested methodology in dealing with BTC are not good because of some supposed personal situation in terms of my own quantity of stash?  Isn't that also a bit ridiculous?  you probably would not know ridiculous if it slapped you in the face.

In essence, you seem to be suggesting that the idea of selling small amounts of BTC on the way up is a bad practice (because in essence you do not have enough BTC and you could not conceive of selling BTC on the way up because you had inadequately and insufficiently stashed BTC both in earlier days and along the way.

In describing my own personal situation, I had already said that if there were a goal of having 10% of the allocation total investment portfolio to be in bitcoin in 2014/2015, but then the allocation ends up getting up to 13.5% based on investing into bitcoin by late 2015, then there is a sense of already being over-allocated (or over invested in BTC), right?  Do you get that?

And, you recall what happened after 2015.. well maybe we have to go into late 2016 by the time we see most of what had happened starting to happen and really play out in terms of BTC's price appreciation compared to other assets such as stocks or almost anything else, no? 

So then my own BTC holdings would have gone from 13.5% to into the 80s% and then the correction in 2018 caused my BTC holdings to go back down to 45% arena, but still way higher than the initial 10% allocation/authorization.  I had also decided in 2016 that I was not going to engage in large sales or reallocation for the sake of reallocation, so there is a theory about letting your winners ride.. but there are also insurance theories within that and should I also share with you the ideas of the SSS thread?

Part of my point remains that if you end up being way higher allocated than your earlier authorization then you do not really mind shaving off some BTC profits or cash or whatever along the way at any time that you might please to do so.

There would not be overselling of BTC because in the end there remains overallocation and overinvestment that provides freedoms and options, rather than your lame ass theory of investing a lump sum in 2015 and then sitting on the whole damned thing for 6 years and whining the whole time that you have not sufficiently and adequately prepared ur lil selfie to get to fuck you status, so you are waiting for $10 million per coin or something like that... instead of actually attempting to help ur lil selfie along the way in terms of trying to be more active in your investment strategy such as continuing to DCA along the way, instead of subscribing to the "bump on the log strategy"^tm.. also known as Biodom's strategy..


Based on what you already said, you are the one who seems to be underly invested..;.sorry that I figured that out with you...

Well, not really sorry, but it sounded good in that sentence.


You come off as confused in your spreading of nonsense with your ongoing desires for personal gotchas..

Are you going to be preparing to tell us that it is a bear market again? Or maybe you will wait for us to get into the lower $40ks, if such a thing (of getting into the lower $40ks, this time) might be possible? And this time your assessment from the lower $40ks is going to actually show itself to be true, rather than such same proclamation that you made in the lower $30ks a bit over a month ago, right?


Even though you are a stubborn bugger, I imagine the next few months might be tough for you in terms of potentially buying back with profits, and then having to wait for two years or more before the BTC price meets the 200-week moving average, and long before the BTC price meets the 200-week moving average, you will see such 200-week moving average moving higher than your previous sell price... and sure, there is also no guarantee that the BTC price will reach down to the 200-week moving average, even within a few years from now. 

Times might seem cushie at the moment.. and so it might take a while for you to see that your plan to buy back was not as sure as you had conceptualized it to be.. especially playing with 100% of your stash rather than maybe a more prudent play of perhaps 10% of your stash. 

On a side note, I suppose if you are ONLY playing with a full stash size of less than 0.1325BTC, then probably it is not that big of a deal, anyhow... so there is that angle, too.


Don't be praying to me.

 

Coinbase hires former Facebook executive as Chief Marketing Officer

The new executive, Kate Rouch, said she hopes to "introduce millions more people to the benefits of crypto."

I believe this will be a positive for Bitcoin too as the expertise of the ex-Facebook hand will be brought to bear on the crypto industry.

News source: https://ct.com/9w29

I have very little sympathy for that little twat eXPHorizon or any other troll/shill because they are disingenuine little twats that you cannot trust for shit in terms of it they might happen to have some kind of real world story.  They figure out a lot of creative ways to attempt to cause you to conclude that their usually inconsistent situation (to the extent they provide any details) might be real, and sure, I am not even saying that there might not be a real person on the other end of that keyboard creating a story, but we can hardly have any clues about whether they might be just some kind of normie who is stacking sats with a side job of getting paid to spread nonsense on the interwebs.

Call me unsympathetic during this largest wealth transfer in the history of man that there might be some casualties along the way... if there might be a chance that they actually believe and act upon any of the misinformation talking points that they are spouting out.

Sure, probably the vast majority of the regular guys in this thread are not going to believe shit that they say and our actions of accumulating coins is not going to be affected, but there are people who actually buy into their bullshit, even if they are ONLY affected on the margins.. but they are affected into waiting and failing/refusing to adequately prepare for UP.. so I don't want to give any semblance of space for these disingenuine troll shills to spread their nonsense.. and another thing that they do is they distract us from actually talking about more meaningful topics... sure we are all over the place in this thread with topics, but sometimes the pages do get filled with nonsense troll/shills, whether we are referring to eXPHorizon or some other twat.


First, I would prefer to refer to that twat as Billy no coiner... it seems a more descriptive name.

Second, sure we might see some entertainment value in some of the seemingly obvious bullshit that they are on and on about... and like I said, it seems quite likely that a decent majority of us will not be affected at all and we might even be encouraged to buy in terms of seeing how desperate some of the troll/shills appear with what they are saying or what they are expecting.

Third, I still don't agree to giving them much if any space, and sure I feel a wee bit guilty about some misleading posts that I make when I am joking (referring to this one), but I just cannot be feeling that there is a purpose to really give those twats space.  Of course, in my link above it turned out that elliottflz65 was not a twat, but he sure asked a stupid question on that day... and I cannot really feel overly bad about my answer, even though some hesitant newbies could have gotten mislead from me, too.  They could have gotten mislead into selling, or failing/refusing to adequately prepare for up.


For sure, some good and decently detailed stories about how BTC has improved actual lives in a variety of ways and maybe even causing some beyond expectations levels of windfalls for guys (and perhaps gal) who had engaged in preparations along the way.


It seems that in the past couple of months I have been playing around with considering the 208-week moving average as the bottom of bear markets and the 104-week moving average as the bottom for bull markets, and for sure there can be short-lived periods of exceptions, even to any kind of seemingly strong guideline - remember our March 2020 liquidity event, the BTC price went below the then 208-week moving average (which was around $5k at the time) for something that was close to two weeks, and then the BTC price would have been below the 104-Week moving average (which was then around $7k) for a bit of a longer time (maybe even bouncing below for a couple of months) - even though we were then in a bull run.. arguably in a bull run that was confirmed since about May 2019 - even though there can be some troubling periods when trying to figure out whether we are "in" a bull run or if we still are in a bull run (once we had confirmed at an earlier time).


Of course, the four-year fractal is within there too in various places (at least three times), and can throw people for a loop.
 

Wow.. a 25% allocation of monthly salary is decently aggressive, and many years, I had aimed for saving at least 10% of my salary, but of course that was prior to bitcoin, but gosh, even with that, I was investing in traditional investments about 25 years by the time that I got into bitcoin, and surely none of my traditional investments even came close to the performance potential of bitcoin - while at the same time, I still can second-guess regarding how I would have treated the availability of something like a bitcoin when I was in my earlier years of building my investments.. and even my go-to 10% would have probably done well, and it takes quite a bit more discipline to get up to something like 25%.. whoaza!!!!.


By the way, we also do need to be considering a variety of things if we want to go into fuck you status at such an early age as 40.. in terms of income and future income source, and if there are any pensions involved, or 401ks or even govt. benefits like social security and medicaid.  There would be some need to make sure that medical is adequately covered and even something like social security might have been projected to kick in at a certain rate at 62 or whatever, but if there are no contributions for the last 22 years or so, then the projected amount to be received might end up being half as much as what had been projected... .. and of course, some of those funds might not be eligible for withdrawal until reaching a certain age, too.. Anyhow, of course, if there is enough of a financial cushion, then there can be an ability to project enough income, even if some of those other sources were to dry up... which surely could happen.


That's for sure.. it seems to be part of what constitutes an actual "fuck you" status in terms of any kind of work that ends up being done would be nearly completely on your own terms.  Of course, some people might still enter into contracts with others, and surely if you were to be in a contract to do some short term work, then you would still be obligated to fulfill the contract..  For sure, if you were already in fuck you status, then you might decide NOT to enter into those kinds of contracts in the first place..  unless you might also be considering entering into a contract for something other than money, too.
 


Of course, farmers enter all kinds of contractual relations, and surely there can be issues if you are hiring people or once you take on a project such as planting seed or raising animals for a season or more.. So, sure I do not know about all your trade offs and obligations, and sometimes you might not want to be stuck doing something or even overseeing projects, even if you like doing it, overall.   I suppose in the end, you can consider if there might be a status that you would consider fuck you status or not, and sometimes people do want to have some sense of fulfillment, even if they might have a lot of money/assets that gives them a lot of options.. and the more liquid the money/assets, then the more options that they likely have.
 


Of course, bitcoin can give a lot of options.  I had various kinds of employment, but I also had a business with a partner for around 8 years, and in that business, I could proclaim to be the boss or even to share some bossiness aspects with the partner.  Then the partner quit so I was left with trying to figure out how to keep the business going and/or trying to sell the business and other matters related to the business (including working out the dispute with the partner.. man-made dispute?  or what?).. Anyhow, there was a certain time that allowed for the resolution of matters and even the ongoing appreciation of bitcoin, so I decided to just close the business and just say fuck off with the goal of selling it or anything like that, and seems that bitcoin allowed for that option to just say who cares about the potential value of the business or its assets, because at some point, the value of the bitcoin investment was greater than the business, more liquid and provided more options and fewer obligations than did the business, and the business was causing a variety of tying down... including geographically.. and really bitcoin's historical price appreciation and even anticipated future price appreciation could also bring in more value than the business, too.. so it seemed like a lot of waste of time to keep such a  business going.. even if there might have been some satisfaction in having a business, too perhaps?  perhaps?..


Gosh.. I don't know marcus.  I have been a fan of weekly DCA rather than waiting a whole month.  I just have too many difficulties in figuring out how to wait so long.. but sure, some people might well have that kind of disciple.. and the more power to them.

One of the main reasons that I might consider monthly rather than weekly were if there were fees that became a bit more acceptable if lumping the money together.. so if someone ONLY has $10 per week, then maybe it would be more cost effective to treat that as $40 per month.  

I am presuming that 25% of Farmer Bill's son's salary is much greater than $40 per month... would likely be in the greater than $1,000 per month (especially if he is considering that his son might be reaching fuck you status in a few years)... but what do I know?  

For DCA investing, we are missing one of the BIGGEST pieces of information, which is time-in-the-market, and of course, we know that DCA is not really so much about timing the market and historically speaking, any guy/gal in bitcoin for a decently long period of time would have chances for decent returns, even for lower levels of investing..   For example, a guy who started to get pretty aggressive in his bitcoin investing $1,000 per month for the past four years would still only have accumulated less than 6 BTC, so I am not sure if we can use Farmer Bill's registration date or we just might need some more info.. seems that Farmer Bill had been investing in bitcoin for quite a bit longer than his registration date.. as far as I recall..  

Even DCA investing into BTC at $1k per month for 5 years versus 4 years could make a pretty BIG difference in terms of the amount of BTC accumulated being at 18 BTC versus only 6 BTC at 4 years.  So there is a pretty good-sized difference with "ONLY" one additional year; that's for sure.

Anyhow, I am presuming that there must be something else going on in terms of maybe having longer time in the market and maybe even some earlier lump sum investment that might have happened, perhaps? perhaps.

Explanation

You likely realize that a lot of my tone was not directed at you personally because I already suspected that you were likely not even have been monkeying around with a very large percentage of your overall BTC holdings/value.  

Another thing there are some guys who might appreciate that even 1% of their total BTC holdings/value is now adding up to a whole hell of a lot of money, so maybe they might not even want to monkey around with that amount of BTC holdings/value.  

Maybe I should ask you on a personal level if you had ever even imagined having such as state of mind about bitcoin in terms of our having bounced between $28.6k and $65k, and largely a lot of us longer term HODLers are considering these areas as potential consolidation areas.. for surely, you had some nervousness in regards to whether $28.6k was going to be the bottom of this consolidation range, but even only a few years ago during our correction in 2018 there were quite a few of us (not really sure if I was largely in that camp, but I was not completely out of it either) who were having some regrets about NOT selling more during the 2017 price run, and sure there were some of us who might have thought that we maybe should have sold 70% to 100% of our stash during that price run.  

I will say that on a personal level I might have sold 12% of my stash, so maybe I was considering that it might have been nice for me to sell larger amounts, such as up to 20% or 30% and then bought back lower.  

Now some of those same people who had been more inclined to sell over 70% to 100% of their stash are struggling with even conceiving themselves to sell more than 50% of their stash.. .. and sure, even if they might be willing to sell more than 50% of their stash, they are not so easily convinced that there would be value in selling more than 70% of their stash.. too much risk in something like that, even if the price might end up correcting down quite a bit after our upcoming blow off top... whenever that might peak.. whether at the end of this calendar year or if the blow off top ends up dragging out into sometime into 2022.

Its funny you should mention that. I always hated Psychologists and thought it was an invasion of privacy to try to get into someone elses head. I think that hatred came from when a shrink lied to me as a kid and I never forgave them after telling me it was against the rules for them to repeat what they heard.

With that being said I ended up having to take one (one class for some weird ass reason) as it was a pre requisite for my degree so I took critical thinking and I have to say that is a class I think should be taught in middle school as it really teaches you how to approach and solve a problem in a logical manner. Funny thing is I was already doing what the class taught but really would have liked to have had it taught to me at a younger age so I didn't have to figure it out myself.

Ohh one thing about level thinking I've found is it is easier to make (hollywood) the other player fuck his up than to have to rely on yours.



Definitely looks like a business opportunity, if I was 10 20 years younger.

Explanation

You know this energy thing is one of the many reasons I have realized we are still SO early.

Hueristic can tell you... Poker players call it level thinking.  I am sure it's not just poker players who call it that... Thing is so few people have figured out that Bitcoin will revolutionize the power industry more than pretty much anything else aside from the "money industry".  It will eventually change SO MANY OTHER  things...  But power is basically second order.  Almost still first... But it's one level away from the base.

Bitcoin takes power!  HUUR DUUR Bircorn bad. Use power for nothing.

Bitcoin will drive an energy revolution unlike anything we have seen so far.  This is not hyperbole.  And I am sure some of you poker players have already seen it.

Bitcoin creates a power consumer base layer.  Most of the time we think of power as something we do not have enough of.  Something we all have to share like a pie.  But there is more atomic energy in a single penny than we can really imagine. But I will help.  The energy in one US penny (3.1 grams of copper plated zinc) is FOUR TIMES the amount of energy released by the bomb that was dropped on Hiroshima.  We have more potential wind, solar, nuclear, and yes, hydrocarbon energy available to us than we could use in millions of years.

The problem is it takes WORK to build the systems that produce the energy.  And work is the distilled value of human lives.

If you were to build a large hydroelectric energy source, or a nuclear reactor in MANY parts of the world where this is a REAL NEED for energy, there would not be a demand large enough to justify the expense.  So there are places all over the world that NEED energy, but do not have it.

Bitcoin fixes this.  Really.

Because NOW we can build a dam that serves a area somewhere in the world that is starved for power.  But it's OK that there re not enough power customers to make the dam profitable!  Just rack up a pile of bitcoin miners!!!!!  THEY can pay for the dam.

And then you have abundant energy for the surrounding villages, which will grow to out compete the old bitcoin machines for the power that resource produces.

Bitcoin will revolutionize the energy markets.  There is no way it doesn't.