I am still surprised than nobody talk about the US election narrative..
This is a major political issue for this election between trump and biden, which in my opinion is very bullish. Of course, no guarantee of what will really be accomplished or relaxed if TRUMP is in power, but the pro BTC narrative between now and the election (and probably at least a few months after) could drive prices significantly higher too.
That's why I can probably give a fair probability we can already get the Top of the cycle end of 2024 or Q1 2025. Especially if finally a US (and Worldwide?) 'official' recession appear in 2025.
Till the election and probably the following months they will hide everything. If we really see a 'big' correction on the traditional markets (tech included) like in Q1-Q2+ 2025, I cannot see any reason we can get the BTC Top later in 2025 in that situation.
In addition I don't see for now, what's better/huge news we can have on BTC in short-mid term (let's say 6-12 months timeframe) with all we already got this year.
Next to US election +2/3 months could be a 'perfect' timing in that case. Let's see first how the market will be after summer..
You make some decent points regarding a potential BTC peak that is either this calendar year or may not being able to last into 2025 - especially f there might end up being a general market crash that begins in early to mid 2025...
I am surely not going to claim to know, even though we both know that bitcoin has had some historical correlation to macro-liquidity, but still macro-liquidity likely does not control bitcoin prices .. so I will take those kinds of seemingly relatively bearish predictions with a grain of salt.. even though sure they could happen.. which is that we could either peak in 2024 or no later than early 2025 - but even if those things were to happen, we cannot really have a lot of confidence about the details including how much BTC goes up before it goes down, and including how much BTC goes down too.. so if BTC does not go up very much, then it might not have a lot of room to go down either.. which brings me back to my own reservations regarding attempting to describe too many legs of our bitcoin price dynamics journey in advance.