Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 4871. (Read 26608336 times)

we are back on track guys...


https://twitter.com/LinaSeiche/status/1429664737567010816

I think the vast majority of time, you are going to be correct Richie.. because when a trade take place, there is usually going to be some surplus value that gets created and goes beyond the trade (or is created because of the trade), and perhaps one side will get more value than the other, but the overall value is likely greater than it would have been without the trade. 

Now, if you have a bitcoin and I take it from you (like a robbery) and then it becomes my bitcoin, then that is a different story because it was not a voluntary transaction between us, and likely no value would have been traded there.. the value would have been transferred from you to me.  But if you have a car, and you are selling it for a bitcoin and I buy it from you, then we both should have some surplus value from that particular trade, even if the surplus value is not likely going to be evenly split in the real world between us, but the fact that you said that you were selling it for 1 BTC, and I was willing to buy it for 1 BTC, there presumably should have been some extra value on each side.. unless I bargained you to death in terms of your just being neutral about whether to sell it for BTC because you initially advertised it for 1.5BTC... but in any event the overall value should quite likely be greater than if we had not done the trade.

The creation and existence of bitcoin creates value in a lot of different ways, so it would be very difficult to think about any aspect of the bitcoin ecosystem in a zero sum game kind of way, except if there were only robberies going on, and that surely would be a jaded view regarding what seems to be a whole hell of a lot of voluntary transactions in the BTC world that are motivated by various incentives and not forced takings. .. so overall increases in the overall size of the pie of value getting created on a minute by minute basis in bitcoin (and perhaps every 10 minutes, too)...

Explanation

Free trade is never a zero sum game. This is the mistake lefties make all the time. They only ever count the beans.

I like to be learning new English words here, like bery or MOAR, I especially like the latter, MOAR.

I can hear the crying sound of bears with btc crossing $50k after long wait and support of investors and holders but those who fear it are calling it won't make noise? What i think is that btc rocket taking off has burst their ears and they are unable to hear the hard sound and have put shades on eyes to cover their tears seeing btc rise.

Happy $50k WO brothers and enjoy this with chilled bear on beach and make some noise out there:



Now we have reached once again at high levels and new ATH are on the way and $100k would act as magnet and golden cross would be printed if it continues the pace and we have seen the same last year.It took off btc from $8k to $64k ahead of coinbase listing.Now we have been up $22k in two weeks from 2021 low of $28k and now prices are up $50000 at current.



Now increasing my btc limits up and want to have some secured future ahead and btc will serve a good purpose for that.Take out your funds from shitcoins ASAP and if you don't understand btc and rising inflation keep them in banks or with you only because shitcoins are not going to give you single penny in return.

Once again $50k party mood is up  

Bears in hibernation now..

Also consider plugs/wires. They are high voltage, and as such, moderately high-stress. Modern ignition is much better than old ones, but since you mentioned a distributor/cap you have an older one. Go ahead and do the plugs/wires as well.

I'm hodling Bitcoin. We are going to hit 53k, maybe 60k soon. Fomo will cause many to long bitcoin, others might sell because of fear of a dip. But I see a bullish trend here. What do you see?

Explanation

Gosh.. I have had a whole hell of a lot of these same kinds of discussions/arguments with ORO over the years, and he has pretty consistently claimed that the BTC that he has held has historically allowed him to live way better off than he would have been able to do without such investments into BTC.

I do believe that he deserves to be beaten up somewhat regarding how conservative he has been in regards to bitcoin, but he surely seems to be a genuine poster.. and surely not a nocoiner.. just a wee bit of whimpy bitcoiner... even though he proclaims that bitcoin has been bery bery good to him....  hahahahaha  nohomo..

And for sure I consider 1% to be a pretty damned low allocation into bitcoin.. especially a more long term investor into BTC, but those are ultimately his allocation and reallocation decisions to make, and he does seem to think through his strategies and his implementations, including personally tailored reasons for why he makes his choices, even if some of us (including yours truly) disagree with him, but he is way the hell in a better position to balance both his finances and his psychology than us keyboard jockies.. that's for sure... even if he is wrong.. hahahahaha

On a personal level, I also have not really followed any significant and aggressive reallocation practices since about 2016.  In about mid-2016, I had decided that I should let my winners ride (BTC in that case) was a likely better kind of practice than periodic or overly reallocations.. I had a variety of reasons that I had come to those conclusions, and I have already gone into those details several times in this short thread, aka the WO thread.

I will concede that there may be times when some reallocation might be prudent..,  but companies and financial advisors are frequently forced to have to engage in that kind of reallocation nonsense or else they could be held liable for not following industry/financial standards....  So, sometimes institutional investors will try to propound their same nonsense reallocation requirements onto us normies, yet we normies do not have those kinds of handicapping restrictions.. We can think for our lil selfies, even if we might come to dumb conclusions from time to time.. which surely dumb conclusions and practices do take place with a lot of us mere mortal normies... but anyhow, forced reallocation might be imposed on institutions or financial advisors, but we normies can exercise our discretion and come to our own lil choices regarding how we would like to manage our finances and our psychology... and hopefully we do not screw things up too badly.

For example, when the value of my BTC holdings went from 13.5% in late 2015 to around 85% in late 2017, it may have been prudent to reallocate before the BTC holdings went back down to around 45% (in late 2018) .. but then when I just let the BTC portion ride, it seems that the BTC portion went back up to around 90% or more in current times.. ..

So even if now the remaining 10% of my total investment portfolio is still enough to completely support me, there has been a lot of profits in the 90% portion that is in bitcoin, too...

My initial goals was to get to 10% allocation in BTC, but I exceeded that goal, but even if I had reallocated down to 20% several times, I probably would have fucked my lil selfie with a lot of underperforming assets (at least underperforming relative to BTC)

I feel like I am rambling a bit and sometimes it does take some providing of details to really make the arguments against too much reallocations and not allowing your winners to ride, at least somewhat greater than some other investments..

In 2016, had figured out based on my own circumstances that I felt that I did not need to reallocate drastically or regularly.. and largely I decided to barely reallocate anything in terms of my BTC and to largely let it ride.. not 100% of it, but probably something in the nature of 90%-ish of it.. .. and had seemed to me that too much reallocation might just show that a guy would have lacked way too much understanding or confidence in the thing that s/he had been investing into in the first place (in this case bitcoin)... ,

....and in the case of bitcoin, why would a guy/gal want to reallocate out of his/her winners and just leave him/her with mediocre profits from mediocre investments instead of allowing bitcoin profits to compound upon themselves through the years, which is what they have done historically and what they are likely to continue to do.. and sure, if you don't have anything but bitcoin, then surely you might want to establish some other investments too..just for some balance and protections in regards to ongoing and likely inevitable BTC price volatility..


Bitcoin does not seem to be any kind of zero sum game play because it is bringing both a kind of innovation into the economy and there are likely a lot of ways that it is making both socially beneficial changes and economy beneficial changes in order to cause other systems to attempt to be more efficient and competitive through various incentives that are built into bitcoin or else bitcoin is going to absorb most if not all of the value of various kinds of asset classes that are being used as storage of value, but they might be better to be used in more normal ways.... for example, houses and real estate have value in and of themselves, but they are sometimes being used as storage of value and they are not very efficient at that task, but bitcoin is much more efficient in the storage of value arena. so bitcoin is a superior storage of value....

So yeah, another example would be that some of the gold guys are going to be losing out.. but overall the pie is just getting bigger in a variety of ways because of the various attributes brought by bitcoin, while the gold guys just picked the wrong asset in which to put their value, so gold still has value, but in the storage of value arena, bitcoin is way better, even though many of the gold guys are not going to know right way that their lunch is in the process of being eaten by bitcoin.. but it is still not a zero sum gam... and gold will still have some use cases, even if its monetary component is driven quite a ways down because bitcoin is likely somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000x better than gold in terms of the storage of value and monetary like features such as transportability, divisibility verifiability, low cost in manage without as many third party issues.. and gold has features that bitcoin does not have, but that is not going to negatively affect bitcoin very much at all..  so there will likely be some retained value with gold because it does not take away from bitcoin in terms of some of those shiny metal features, for example.

Nice pump.

Coming in handy as I'm going shopping with my Binance card.
I'm about to go do some more early morning shopping, have to buy some more love for my car.
I'm gonna change the motor oil and filter and rear axle oil and replace the coolant, and the distributor and rotor, it wouldn't start on a very humid day this summer, I had to feed it starter gas to get it going on three cylinders and after idling on that for a while the fourth started too, haven't had any problems since but I suspect a small crack or something in the distributor cap to be the reason so changing it, and it's about time anyway.

Still to do is changing oil in the gearbox, but that's a pain in a automatic, so I'll let a garage do that.

Winter is coming.

...

Poker Player, Richy_T

I am very happy with my strategy.  It has allowed me to grow some extra wealth that I would otherwise have missed out on if it were not for BTC.  For a small investment, all in all.  Low risk matters.  Taking profit matters...

Keep in mind that only a small percentage of people, both US and worldwide, have ever bought into Bitcoin.  Hence, a very small number of winners.

I feel like I am a big winner.  No regrets.  BTC has brought wealth to my grandchildren.

*   *   *

The following thought might be more appropriate in some other thread, but I have long wondered whether or not BTC gains by all/most of us represent some kind of "Zero Sum Game", looking at the larger view.  That is, a win for me (or us) would be a LOSS for someone else?

My inclination is to think "No", that this is not a Zero Sum arena, as it is new technology that has great promise.

You could be correct regarding some sticking points around $60k (and of course, based on where we are at, how we got here, including our having had spent around two months-ish (perhaps even up to three months for the psychology of some peeps), I am personally a bit more sympathetic with the idea of a possible sticking point in the mid $50ks)  - but it does also seem that we cannot even presume that sticking points would occur at both $55k and $60k - instead it might be more logical that it is either one or another.. not both.

Think about it this way.. We have pretty much inched our way all the fuck up to $50k, and we only had one kind of mediocre correction between $42,600 and $37,100.. hardly even enough to write home about even though it did cause some whining about our only being in a dead cat bounce.. blah blah blah..

So, sure I don't give too many shits if king daddy goes straight into punishment mode and we largely whiz up to $80k-ish within 4-8 weeks and with hardly any resting periods, but I still would be questioning the solidness of buying support to be able to keep up between $55k and $80k, in the event that we do not experience some kind of decent BTC price correction before getting to $55k - whether that happens soon or continues to take advantage of what seems to be ongoing UPpity pressures for a few more thousands of UPpity movement.

So my thinking is that if there is no correction until we get past $55k, then it makes more sense to get a correction somewhere in the upper $50ks..

I have also learned to try NOT to get too surprised by anything, even while I am ongoingly "I told you"ing folks about where we are at.. and so many of them remain nocoiners.. so I just ongoingly wonder and wonder and wonder when they are going to get in.. are they waiting for $1 million coins or what? 

A kind of side story:  yesterday, one of my uncles mentioned something about since I have bitcoin that I am going to be able to do whatever I want when bitcoin reaches $1 million, and I asked why the hell would I personally need $1 million per coin.. I said for rounding off purposes, we could just figure that my costs per BTC are around $1k, and I am wondering if he could even imagine why someone in my position would need any more BTC price appreciation in order to be happy.. why do I give any shits if BTC reaches a million or not?  Sure, I hope BTC does not go back below $20k.. and I am even doubting the possibility of that ever happening again, so if we have spot price profits that ends up being around 50x in profits for me and a kind of guaranteed ongoing profits of 20x, then why would I need more than that.... I said that is already amazing profits, and I am not even saying that bitcoin is not going to $1 million.. I said that there still is no other investment that is as good as bitcoin.. even given current market conditions

I said sure, maybe if I buy a helicopter, then my problems could be solved because so many people get rich and they buy helicopters and then they crash their helicopters when they had a lot going for them. .Maybe it is not a good idea to buy a helicopter, then.  I had some other frustrations talking with seemingly committed no coiners.. and just seems crazy.. that so many of the no coiners still do not want to budge... when?  when?  when?  I don't know.. they may well wait until we get to FOMO position.. and we are not there, yet.. even though they consider that we are already in FOMO status.. and we are quite likely not.. not yet.

Explanation

True. Quite a lot of posts too. If the rest of his portfolio was just simply huge... but then why bother rebalancing?

Seriously, man?

That an investor who does not know much about Bitcoin, allocates only 1% of his portfolio I can understand, but that you, who have been on the forum since 2014, do it, makes me think that you have not learned much.

I agree with one thing the article says: "The answer to this question varies based on different circumstances in people’s lives."

But 1% definitely seems very low to me.


But he's been on the forum since 2014, that's what doesn't add up for me.

1% seems very low, especially for having been in for 4 years. I would say that even 5% would only really be for someone who doesn't really grok Bitcoin and is just getting going. (If you're just getting started and don't have much extra to invest, I could see lower numbers but then you probably don't have much in the way of other investments either).

Still, I always advocate that people should be comfortable with the investments they're making so I'm not going to call you wrong.

...

How much of your portfolio should you put into BTC?  

NICE article here on that very subject:

https://bitcoinmagazine.com/culture/how-much-portfolio-allocate-bitcoin

(TL;DR, it depends)


Me?  For a long time (say post 2017, in 2017 I cashed out as well, from 2018 - 2020 I bought), I aimed for +/- 1% of my net in BTC (none in alts).  As BTC rose, I would on occasion re-balance my portfolio by selling (or trading BTC for gold).  Typically during 2020 (and especially 2021) the BULL MARKET ran away from me so fast that it was hard to balance it back down to 1%.  But, that's OK, good, in a bull market.  Right now I am roughly 1.5%.

DO keep in mind that even my HODLing 1% (subject to irregular re-balancing) in the past year and a half or so has yielded me well over 1% in my whole portfolio.  I will have to do the numbers, but even just a HODLing at 1% has probably grown my portfolio perhaps 4% - 5%, not bad considering I have been trying to keep BTC at 1%...


Edit: Big bull markets make everyone look smart...

Ah, you were faster than me:) Happy $50k day everybody. It took us an entire quarter but it's happened. I actually thought we were going to be going down back to 40k after yesterday failed but I'm so glad to be proven wrong. Monday is now good to look forward to for the fifth week in a row.