Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5040. (Read 26609780 times)

I wonder if there are such a class of people?  Might be a temporary status, no?

For example, in early 2016,  when the BTC price was stuck in the mostly $350 to $450 range there seemed to be quite a few people who were proclaiming that BTC prices would never go above $500 again.  Gosh we must have stayed in that range for nearly 7 months, so by the time that we were several months in that seemingly stuck zone, more and more people were believing that BTC prices would never go above $500 again.

Personally I believe that there were likely lot of decently powerful forces who would have preferred that BTC prices never go above $500 again.. so they did strive to keep BTC prices below $500... and they were able to do it, until they could not do it any longer.

After May 2016, it would have sucked to have been a person betting on (or believing upon) sub $500 prices forever


Only two categories of people who are selling BTC at $38k, and now the lower prices of $36.5k (as I type).. and presumably at price points in between?


Are there such a kind of people?

Can you ever have too many BTC?  Hey, note that I am kind of playing devil's advocate in my having had posed this question, because there do seem to be a variety of scenarios in which someone might have too many BTC.,. but the more common scenario (or problem) seems to be the vast majority of peeps have way too few BTC (for their own good).

I suppose that your bills are going to be due and they are going to be payable in some other forum of asset or currency, aka fiat, no?

I will agree that there are surely people who gamble too much, so perhaps those are the kinds of people who bought too much BTC because they were betting on up, yet when we got up, then their bet came true, so surely not a bad thing to sell some BTC at that point, in the event that was what they had planned to do, no?

I recall that in late 2014, I established a BTC accumulation goal of having 10% of my quasi-investible asset value in BTC, so when I reached my goal in late 2014 (and BTC prices had gotten down to around $350 or so), I still could not resist but to continue to buy BTC beyond maintaining a 10% allocation during 2015 - even though I had already reached my 10% allocation goal.. so I suppose by the time that late 2015 came and I had reached around 13.5% allocation in BTC, I fit that same category as you describe of having had bought "way more" than what I should have held in the first place, so sure, having gotten my lil selfie into such a classification, I did feel somewhat over-allocated into bitcoin, yet I really did not panic, but I started to feel somewhat more psychologically comfortable to shave off some BTC here and there from time to time, but since the BTC price largely kept going up way faster than my readiness and willingness to shave off some of the BTC allocation, that allocation continued to grow.. and it got above 90% a few times, and it largely hovered in a 45% to 70% range for a large part of 2018, 2019 and 2020...

Sucks to be me to both have had overly allocated into BTC and then maintained such overallocation in order to feel comfortable to sell whatever amount of BTC whenever I want - even though I have kept "way too much" in BTC.  By the way, over the years, I have developed some additional criteria - even though my BTC has continued to stay way over allocated.  Funny how the concept of overallocation works, sometimes, and also the concept of adjusting new strategies based on such ongoing overallocation acceptance.

Well, that was short lived. Back to HODLsleep as the cool kids here say.

Explanation

Try this… it will go up!

If you don't believe it or don't get it, I don't have the time to try to convince you, sorry.

– Satoshi Nakamoto



It's 11 years of that famous saying by the grandmaster himself here on this forum...



Picture credit: https://twitter.com/blockfolio/status/1288457841913798658?s=19

Limp dildo pattern. It can only go up from here.

Explanation

No his ethos is all about Bitcoin going down, he's steadfast and unwavering about it.

Must be hiding it really well behind a shitwall of threads like "bitcoin will never go above $xyz".

Say what you will about proudhoun dude, at least he has an ethos.

Not looking good for the bulls

Buddy get your shit together and start the climb 🧗‍♂️ back up the hill.

Explanation

I agree.  Bitcoin will not be a transactional currency until, and unless the LN network matures and is deployed by vendors.

People are not incentivized to SPEND bitcoin.  There are people who reject the whole "digital gold" NGU thing, and I think some of their logic actually makes some pretty good sense.  I just think they are wrong that this is not a healthy stage for Bitcoin.  It is both healthy and needed.  I strongly believe Bitcoins "transactional" value is going to lag until we see the middle of the S curve insofar as being a reserve asset is concerned.  Until then gresham's law reigns supreme.

After we pass the adoption bellcurve for store of value we will begin to see transactional bitcoin growing.

But a parallel exception to this rule are developing countries.  In a place like El Salvador, they may skip forward to bitcoin as money because they NEED it.  I think these paths can exist in parallel.  And as nations like ES show prosperity because of the inflow of good money other nations with nothing to lose will follow.

In the meantime the smart institutional money will do whatever they can to slow adoption as they accumulate and shift their business strategy.  more and more of them realize it is a land race, and they are almost certainly beginning to take stakes in bitcoin as a reserve asset.  They are INCENTIVIZED to delay the stampede of retail.  Yet they cannot stop it, because they have not chosen to spend the time they HAD to wall off bitcoin from the public, and could not on a global front even if they chose to.  So they are too late.  Also I will be surprised if we make it through earnings season without a handful of companies at least sending up test flares if not outright reporting they will, or have already taken a position.

The central banks are also too late.  These evil fuckers, however, will most likely NOT just capitulate.  It's going to be fun to watch them burn down.  I look forward to seeing the WEF, IMF, and all the other CB stooges on the pyre of history.  I hope the conflict does not get too hot.

Explanation

It seems like we get some of those every single time, and they present their case as if it were the smartest thing in the world to be doing.. selling some and going to buy back cheaper.  Frequently, we do not see those ones again.  Sometimes I find it hard to be nice or to give the benefit of the doubt to those ones.  I recall that we had a couple of weeks of correction in something like March 2017 that brought the BTC price down to about $850, and it was hovering in the $1k arena as a kind of Spring point, and a member posted that he was selling, and he was going to buy back lower.  I said that I thought he was doing the opposite of what he should be doing, but we would see what happens because for sure none of us know what is going to happen - especially in the short term, but sometimes it can get quite dangerous to be selling rather than buying on dips (even though dips tend to be scary while they are happening). 

From the charts, we can see that in that March 2017 case, the BTC prices pretty much went UP from there, and sure, they did not get decisively above $3k until about September 2017, but we also know that so far they have not gone below $3k, either.. so sometimes there becomes a point that the BTC price never every again returns to such a price point.. but at any given price point, we cannot be sure, exactly when that is going to be...... .even though selling on dips or failing to buy more on dips.. do tend to play out as a common theme in which that never to return price point is experienced (unknowingly at the time)...

Probably the people who can drive the price back down, or people who bought way more than they should hold in the first place.

Does everyone else who works at McDonald's eat 3* Michelin ‘t Zilte? They must pay more than I thought.

Good bullish momentum







They had to try something, didn’t they??






El duderino’s eyes where off the charts and focussed on 3* Michelin ‘t Zilte

Cheers


HODLer Mondays…..

APE INTO NFTS !!!    WASSUP BRO