Just to put things in perspectives……..
When n00bs tell me BTC is dead/over/bearmarket……
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5243. (Read 26723255 times)
July 14, 2021, 10:35:12 AM
Just to put things in perspectives……..
When n00bs tell me BTC is dead/over/bearmarket……
July 14, 2021, 10:23:24 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
Which is nonsense. It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured. For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb. Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world? If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.
sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC
Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
July 14, 2021, 10:03:17 AM
We’ve all been through times like this in bitcoin many times, doesn’t make it any better though. I think deep down I know we’ll still make new ATH’s in 2021. I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.
I miss muh green dildos & memes.
I miss muh green dildos & memes.
You're just preparing yourself to get excited
How can one experience fun when he never learned to cry. (My stupid simplification of a chinese proverb)
Unpopular opinion: Troubled waters until 21st of July. I'll hodl my coins and save some fiat until then
I'm in LFC's boat. Pretty sure we are feeling the exact same feelings with the price action the last few months and all I can say is it sucks.
Of course long-term we both know where this is going, but, as they say "waiting is the hardest part".
Yeah, i've been through this in 2018 and 2019 after i made a move and used some of my fiat savings to buy additional bitcoin at $15k. It was a smaller fraction of my satstack, but the most expensive one until 2020, also (EDIT: one of) the biggest one-time amount spent buying corn.
Until mindrust's exit, i had plenty of time to learn to manage my feelings when price goes down.
But this time it's different, we're in a bull market (at least we should be), price goes south, FUD and government terror rose to an unseen amount yet. WSB mentality of making overleveraged-all-in trades adds to the problem. I still (try) to see the price action as a correction. I'm not immune to doubts, you know, but i ditched panic and i don't need most of the money i bought bitcoin with.
Spoiler: I bought it for the future of my kids/family.
But that's just me. I would never say things like "poor loser, don't whine around, hodl!" to any WOer experience negative feelings in regard to price action.
Likely many of us are here and actively participating in this thread because we are willing to relate to the perspectives of others regarding bitcoin's price performance and whether it might have some UPpity future potential... while appreciating that there are ongoing DOWNity pressures happening at the same time.
And, even though there is a bit of rare occasions when the bears get fucking reckt, it feels so good to see those DOWNity pressures get reversed and even when the DOWNity bets keep getting made while the BTC price is going up.
A couple of things are going on, and we should be attempting to appreciate that the down days way the hell out number the up days, and if you want to profit from bitcoin, you are usually going to be way the hell better off by staying into bitcoin because the overall trend has been UPpity and there is no real and significant evidence to establish that the overall trend is going to continue to be UPpity.. even though the down days still likely outnumber the UP days.. .and you better be "in" when the UP days happen because they can come at times that are unexpected.. and surely we have witnessed that plenty of times.. tends to be several times every year, and feels so good during those periods.
I suppose that if things were rosey and great in the ballpark of my lowball BTC price expectations of 6% per year, our current BTC price and starting at $750 in 2013 would ONLY be around $1,200 currently, so I am not complaining at all.
Start price = 750
BTC annual %price appreciation:
6% 30% 50% 75% 100% 150%
2013 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750 $750
2014 $795 $975 $1,125 $1,313 $1,500 $1,875
2015 $843 $1,268 $1,688 $2,297 $3,000 $4,688
2016 $893 $1,648 $2,531 $4,020 $6,000 $11,719
2017 $947 $2,142 $3,797 $7,034 $12,000 $29,297
2018 $1,004 $2,785 $5,695 $12,310 $24,000 $73,242
2019 $1,064 $3,620 $8,543 $21,542 $48,000 $183,105
2020 $1,128 $4,706 $12,814 $37,699 $96,000 $457,764
2021 $1,195 $6,118 $19,222 $65,973 $192,000 $1,144,409
2022 $1,267 $7,953 $28,833 $115,453 $384,000 $2,861,023
2023 $1,343 $10,339 $43,249 $202,042 $768,000 $7,152,557
2024 $1,424 $13,441 $64,873 $353,574 $1,536,000 $17,881,393
2025 $1,509 $17,474 $97,310 $618,754 $3,072,000 $44,703,484
2026 $1,600 $22,716 $145,965 $1,082,819 $6,144,000 $111,758,709
2027 $1,696 $29,530 $218,947 $1,894,933 $12,288,000 $279,396,772
Look at the above table** with a variety of projected BTC price expectations, and maybe currently we might be in the ballpark of 50% to 75% per year BTC price appreciation from a 2013 starting price of $750, and sure some peeps would prefer that we were to be in a 100% to 150% per year price appreciation, and from my perspective that seems to be asking too much too quickly of our saviour king daddy, because we have already been in a very good position to be seemingly exceeding 50% per year (and perhaps closer to 75% per year when using the 8 years of numbers of this chart)...
Of course, there is some arbitrariness in how my projections play out in terms of my having had somewhat randomly creating a starting point price of $750 in 2013 ... but still I have a hard time complaining in the event that we are anywhere in the 30%, 50% or 75% per year BTC price appreciation arena... Yeah in bitcoin we tend to have UPs and downs in our price performance, but overall the BTC price appreciation per year on average has been continuing to do quite well in the whole scheme of things and there seems to be little to no reason to conclude that we might not continue to experience decently onward and upwards BTC price appreciation, even if such per year price appreciation rates might slow down to a lower rate per year.
**I admit that I need to figure out how to do tables moar better... rather than manually plotting them out.. well, I cut and pasted this one from Excel and attempted to someone format it manually.
July 14, 2021, 10:01:35 AM
July 14, 2021, 10:01:05 AM
Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.
We have a word for that in my country
July 14, 2021, 09:53:53 AM
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
You hit the nail right on the head I find that supporters of Bitcoin are too quick to believe something just because its saying something positive about Bitcoin. Most predictions that people say are not accurate and have no evidence to back up their prediction other than just a gut feeling. You deserve more merit for shining a light on that mental flaw that the Bitcoin community seems to have. 
July 14, 2021, 09:51:50 AM
He just did same napkin math. And now he's in cold storage. Literally.
I'd rather use inches than thumbs, but most of the rest of the world uses centimeters.
(I'm just joking eh.)
I'd rather use inches than thumbs, but most of the rest of the world uses centimeters.
(I'm just joking eh.) 
July 14, 2021, 09:08:02 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
Which is nonsense. It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured. For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb. Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world? If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.
sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
July 14, 2021, 09:01:27 AM
July 14, 2021, 08:57:52 AM
July 14, 2021, 08:50:06 AM
BTW Many modern Tractors are able to run on Bio Diesel
These dont need Bitcoin or FIAT
If they decide to not work anymore everyone is going to be hungry and Bitcoin or Fiat will be totaly worthless
July 14, 2021, 08:44:53 AM
Hmm, A bart plus other moves with some similarity.
Is the market back to be manipulated by the same shitheads that were haunting Bitmex. Remember when Bitmex run into trouble and the Barts stopped. All very suspect.
15min Bitstamp chart
Is the market back to be manipulated by the same shitheads that were haunting Bitmex. Remember when Bitmex run into trouble and the Barts stopped. All very suspect.
15min Bitstamp chart
July 14, 2021, 08:37:50 AM
July 14, 2021, 08:34:36 AM
#few
July 14, 2021, 08:10:31 AM
This summer will be remembered for a long time.
Ok..... I will bite.
Why?
As a summer of despair before an autumn/winter of joy. A bit like 2013 probably.
July 14, 2021, 08:02:47 AM
Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.
Jh... Its like a Chicken in the Oven. Cant wait for cooler times, when it rains now it is a blessing as it cools down the air by alot and a person can finally sleep lol
July 14, 2021, 08:01:40 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
.Of course it seems inevitable that if bitcoin remains relevant (which most of us here strongly believe), and the us dollar is still a thing, that purely due to inflation it will reach a 10 million usd/btc price. It just won't be dollars with the purchasing price of those in 2009 when Hal made the prediction.
Yes his reasoning was faulty, bitcoin will be worth a lot more then 10 million and it will happen in our lifetime, most of us anyway.
That "prediction" was made in 2009. Someone updated it recently and the numbers we are looking at in the "end game" are closer to $50 million to $100 million. Each. Per Coin.
Based on how mining and supply will turn out, and this is easy to estimate, we will arrive at these numbers between 20 to 100 years from now. At whatever those numbers mean in the future, in dollar values, in the future, not in today's dollars.
July 14, 2021, 08:01:27 AM
July 14, 2021, 07:58:40 AM
Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.
First thought was "man, that's kind of chilly".
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