Explanation
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5242. (Read 26723255 times)
July 14, 2021, 01:01:35 PM
July 14, 2021, 12:57:05 PM
Love those daily LFC updates
which garmin watch is this?
would like to get me soon also a garmin and my favorite would be the garmin marq adventurer
https://discover.garmin.com/en-US/marq/collection/adventurer/
July 14, 2021, 12:44:00 PM
Oh gawd, Dabs. 
My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...
Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.
For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.
For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...
Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value?
Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.
My first quickie read of your above paragraph caused me to consider that you were referring to the BTC portion that you are speculation to NOT have been cashed out, and then I saw that you were speculating in regards to the dollar value...
Holy sheeeeeiiitttt.
For sure, I do not mind speculating in terms of attempting to dollar pegging of value, but I surely do not consider it to be healthy for guys to be planning to lump sum cash out their BTC into dollars and then feel some kind of assurance regarding that kind of financial planning.. even though I understand that a lot of normies do want to gravitate towards that kind of dollar denominated (rather than dollar pegging) thinkenings.
For sure, BTC HODLers should be attempting to remain in the real world, and it is quite doubtful that the dollar is going to completely go away anytime in the near future, even though we have been witnessing extreme levels of ongoing abuse, in terms of the ongoing and seemingly ever increasing levels of outrageous irresponsibilities in terms of dollar printing.. but I really find it problematic that anyone with any kind of semblance of bitcoin conviction would be wanting to frame bitcoin strategies in terms of lump sum cashening out of BTC in order to secure some kind of dollar denominated future...
Aren't we here (meaning in bitcoin) in the first place, because we are having troubles in terms of having a lot of faith in the dollar being able to retain value?
*edit* nah, both addresses kept on moving. The first one is probably an exchange address. I'm not sure about the other one, but it kept moving and sending the coins somewhere else.
Fair points regarding trying to speculate regarding places that the BTC may have gone.
I thinkenings of it this way, if I (personally, me) had 750 BTC in cold storage for 9 years, and I needed to access that today (or yesterday, or any time this year 2021), after seeing its dollar value go fluctuate between $20k up to $60k in the first quarter of 2021 alone, I would probably do something similar.
Oh gawd, Dabs. You are both showing that you have no where close to 750BTC, and you seem to be creating some kind of artificial hypothetical that is not going to apply in terms of considering that someone who has 750 BTC would be the ONLY wealth that they have, so they have to engage in some kind of desperate reallocation, after a 50% BTC price drop...
Sure, there might be some legitimacy in your claim that the person had shaved off some BTC through an exchange after a 50% drop in price, but still seems quite presumptuous to be ascribing so many specifics.
Cash out 100 BTC, save the remaining 650 BTC and put back into cold storage (or in this case, the owner did something else, perhaps he split it some more into more parts depending on how he thinks it should be managed.)
So yes, many of us are here because the fiat world is devaluing, but at the same time we also know the dollars and the fiats are not disappearing soon.
Considering that the average person can survive on approximately $40k in expenses per year (or less), then $1m ought to last that person at least 30 years, even if conservatively invested in traditional equities/fixed income assets. $3m therefore will be about the same thing for anyone with less than $120k in annual expenses.
Most people will have more than 9 years with that kind of fiat cash dollars, even if they don't invest in anything and just dump it in a cash "savings" account, or spending account.
So yes, many of us are here because the fiat world is devaluing, but at the same time we also know the dollars and the fiats are not disappearing soon.
Considering that the average person can survive on approximately $40k in expenses per year (or less), then $1m ought to last that person at least 30 years, even if conservatively invested in traditional equities/fixed income assets. $3m therefore will be about the same thing for anyone with less than $120k in annual expenses.
Most people will have more than 9 years with that kind of fiat cash dollars, even if they don't invest in anything and just dump it in a cash "savings" account, or spending account.
Fair enough.
The remaining 650 BTC (worth at least $20m USD), I probably will not need myself, as I'm sure the real owner of that address did not need it for 9 years, can be put back into cold storage and not touched for at least another 9 to 10 to 20, maybe to 30 years.
Seems to be assuming a lot in regards to that 750 BTC (reduced to 650 BTC) was all the BTC and wealth that the person had.
I did not bother tracking where the rest moved though, so I don't know what could have happened to it. The wise thing to try to do is obfuscate the trail using whatever tech there is now, such as CoinJoins like Wasabi or Samourai or putting it into multi-sig, or if you trust an exchange to handle that kind of coin temporarily before sending it back to cold storage.
Sure no problem with that.
Personally, I would divide that into maybe 65 different addresses of 10 BTC each (or even smaller), whatever I can handle just thinkenings about it, just so I can keep them separate.
Of course 10 BTC per address is more manageable than 650 BTC in one address.. cannot argue with you about that... especially maybe 750 BTC might have only been worth less than $1k or maybe $5k at the most 9 years ago... .. so sure there might not have been much consideration of any kind of need to create separate addresses (or wallets) for those 750 coins 9 years ago... and sure even more than 1BTC per address might draw more attention these days, so there might even be some concern about dividing lower than 10 BTC per address or even below 1 BTC per address for some addresses, even though they might be more difficult to manage.. and even having equally sized addresses might not be any kind of strict requirement in keeping track... in terms of how many addresses to divide into and how much to keep in each.. some with larger quantities of BTC and some with smaller quantities of BTC.
Even if I did not have to use the cash, allowing a budget of at most 10 BTC a year, the stash could last 65 years, at whatever price it is then.
Hm? that is a strange way of framing the matter, especially since we likely can project that bitcoin is very likely to have considerable price fluctuations in the next 65 years or so, presuming that anyone who would have 650-750 BTC might want to be projecting 65 years into the future.. sure consider that a high school or college student might have easily acquired that quantity of BTC.. but still seems a weird way to frame thinking about the future in terms of 10 BTC per year... or anything like that kind of framing of the time/value expectation matter.
Of course, if in the next 10 to 20 years, we see that fiat is seriously and miserably failing according to whatever standards we believe in the future, then surely, just HODL onto the BTC and spend as needed. Or don't spend, try to make the $3 million dollars in cash last as long as you can.
If someone has 750 BTC currently (more than $22 million currently), I am not sure why there might be any need to strive to be frugal with $3 million of it.. again presuming that $22 million might be the total wealth.. which also comes off as a wee bit of a stretch as I already mentioned.
Of course, this all depends on what is one's current income and spending numbers. The usual 4% rule and $40k annual expenses are just arbitrary numbers. Some have it higher or lower.
Yes.. we know that 4% is a good starting point, especially when considering a variety of traditional investments, and a presumptively diversified portfolio of investments based on such presumptively traditionally diversified portfolio.
So, yeah, if we might not all be on the same page regarding the method for accounting an projecting, then starting out with 4% of the portfolio as a safe withdrawal rate and even that every million dollars might bring $40k of annual income, then that could give us some ideas for starting points in terms of the entry point living expenses of normies... So, sure, if the basics are covered, then we might be able to extrapolate from there some levels of wealth or abilities to live extravagantly beyond the basics, too... so of course, we are not approaching the topic from greatly divergent starting points, but still seems that there might be a considerable amount of errors in trying to ascribe too many details regarding how to manage particulars, but sure let's say that the current value of the portfolio is 750 BTC which is currently over $22 million then we could very well attribute $40k x 22 = $880k of annual income at current values to such an investment portfolio, which would thereby generate around $73k of income per month.
Of course, if someone does not feel that they need that level of income, and lives off of a much lower quantity of income, then the remainder would presumably stay in BTC, so sure there are a lot of ways to project how much income to draw right now from the investment portfolio and whether that might be sustainable. Of course, I personally have a preference for the 208-week moving average, so I personally would consider the amount that I have and the limits that I would be willing to withdraw in a different framework... so let me just put it out there in this context. The 208-week moving average is currently at $13,600, so for the purposes of withdrawal and withdrawal limits, I would consider the value of 750 BTC to be at $10.2, and I personally consider a 12% per year withdrawal rate to be acceptable, so long as the current BTC price is at least 12% higher than the current 208-week moving average price, which it currently is above $15,232 (1.12 x $13,600)... So I would feel ok. to withdraw $1.224 million per year or a $102k per month (which actually causes higher withdrawal numbers which could be a mistake if such 12% per year from the 208-week moving average is not sustainable).
I guess my point is that there are a lot of ways to consider the matter, and even to consider if any of us is even coming close to his/her withdraw limits or if we might be living within the boundary of such withdraw limits in the even that we have actually entered into such a period in which we are withdrawing portions of our BTC and attempting to make such withdraws sustainable within the timeline that we would like to project our BTC cashenings to be sustainable.
July 14, 2021, 12:27:38 PM
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
But if falls apart at the bolded bit. Just stop there. Anything after that isn't a thought experiment, it's just nonsense. It's pure bullshittery and I hope he would have admitted that if called on it.
July 14, 2021, 12:26:22 PM
By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.
You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.
If he isn't already using electrum he could export all the keys from his old wallets, then import them into electrum. After that he could freeze any problematic dust addresses, so they can't be spent from.
Either that, or wait until the fees are extremely low, then send dust spread across loads of addresses to a single consolidation address.
Fees are fairly low at the moment.
Today the bitcoinfees website says zero fee transactions can still confirm if you are prepared to wait 95 blocks.
It says a one sat per byte fee can confirm inbetween 3 to 64 blocks.
https://bitcoinfees.earn.com/
*edit*
Apparently it's very difficult to broadcast a zero fee transaction. There seems to be a way to trick electrum into letting you broadcast a zero fee segwit transaction, but I'm not sure if it works for normal transactions.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/kt41dq/finally_changed_electrum_code_to_have_truly_zero/
Quote
You can actually achieve this by using paytomany where you simply leave zero SAT for fees. I've done it in the past.
...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN
...it is very rare (5%) to find a node that will allow you to broadcast a zero fee TXN
If electrum won't let you generate a zero fee transaction you could try using an offline copy of coinb.in
https://coinb.in/#newTransaction
You can download it from the link at the bottom of this page.
https://coinb.in/#about
This is its bitcointalk thread.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/coinbin-open-source-multi-signature-hd-wallet-segwitbech32-and-more-390046
*edit2*
If he has an address with hundreds of dust inputs the thread below might offer a solution.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Electrum/comments/7qa45a/is_it_possible_to_specify_the_inputs_for_a_given/
Any transaction with over a hundred inputs seems to create problems. Using electrum to create transactions with 50 inputs seems to solve this.
July 14, 2021, 12:05:51 PM
Love those daily LFC updates
July 14, 2021, 12:01:26 PM
July 14, 2021, 11:57:34 AM
By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.
You probably don't need help and will eventually figure this out, such as either ignoring the dust, or consolidating it all in one or a few transactions, loading up as many addresses or inputs as you can. But just in case, you can ask around here maybe someone knows what to do, or can do, or if its too much work or its possible.
...see what our “scientists” speculating, things worth $10,000 quadrillion 
Isn’t this more absurd than what Hal stated?
NASA’s Hubble Telescope has obtained images of an asteroid so rich in metals that its worth puts our global economy to shame. Think $10,000 quadrillion ($10,000,000,000,000,000,000), compared to the world’s economy, which was worth about $142 trillion in 2019.
Isn’t this more absurd than what Hal stated?
I wouldn't say it's absurd, but the asteroid itself is literally out of our reach. Or it's too expensive. You'd need a trillion dollars just to get there, then maybe another trillion to slowly get the metals back to earth.
If we (as a planet) can actually do that, it would be worth it. And of course, watch as prices of metals plunge, and bitcoin takes it's place as gold 2.0.
July 14, 2021, 11:49:55 AM
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Well no economics was involved.. he just did the math and it's correct.
Which is nonsense. It is not because something is being expressed in a unit, that that unit needs to expand to whatever is being measured. For example, let's say I measure the length of my furniture by comparing to the length of my thumb. Why would there then need to be as many of my thumbs as there is furniture in the world? If that sounds strange or weird, that is because it is weird and nonsensical.
Money is just an asset class on its own, which takes up a certain portion of total wealth in the world.
sauce : https://twitter.com/DrBitcoinMD?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1165004233663496197%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cryptopolitan.com%2Fhal-finney-bitcoin-price-prediction-10-m%2F
I like bullish BTC price predictions as much as the next guy, but if we just switch off our critical thinking whenever somebody says something nice about bitcoin, we are more of a religion or cult than anything else. Which is not needed imo, as the realistic scenario for bitcoin holds plenty of upside and promise.
And yet, it's always the crazy over the top predictions that turn out to be right.
July 14, 2021, 11:49:14 AM
now that I was very close it just felt like a bullet in the back of the head (no panic though). Also, it was an unexpected move going off price history, and the thought that this could be a prolonged bear market after such a small move up is disheartening.
That's why you were acting like such a whiney little biatch (or would it be whiney little girl? searing/brad... can you chime in? hahahahaha)... and I am glad that you are coming off as a weeeeeeeeeee bit less whiney in recent times (emphasis on "weeeeeee").
#nohomo.
I think that the punchline remains that we remain in a pretty damned decent place whoever is in this BTC thingie-ma-jiggie for the long term, whether we go UPpity or DOWNity from here...
Of course, UPpity would be preferred, but we should know that king daddy gives few shits about what we would be preferred so we have had nearly 2 months to get our bearings to prepare our lil selfies both psychologically and financially for either price direction... so are we prepared, or no? Still ONLY prepared for UP? You might suffer more... I am not saying that I know shit about which way the BTC price is going to go, and when I am presuming that we are STILL in a bull market, I am presuming that the odds for UP are greater than the odds for down (even if ONLY slight), but sure that does not mean that in the short term we may well experience some more suffering.. whether our own suffering or the suffering of others, but our own preparations should help us to consider the possibility for either direction.. especially in the short term --- still preferring UP, but whatever, it's not like I can do much of anything, except maybe figure out price points that I might be ready, willing and able to buy more in the event that we get down before up.
It's not like I need the money right now….{snip}
I guess that's why this dump got to me honestly. Unlike 2014, 2018, {snip} I wasn't close enough to my dreams and now that I was very close it just felt like a bullet in the back of the head (no panic though). Also, it was an unexpected move going off price history, and the thought that this could be a prolonged bear market after such a small move up is disheartening. I'm still hoping that this is a correction (mini bear market) in the longer bull supercycle as well, but I'm not seeing much bullish price action, though on-chain seems to be showing some good signs. Like others, I'm thinking towards the end of this year we should see something, but if we don't by then, well, that ain't a good sign.
I guess that's why this dump got to me honestly. Unlike 2014, 2018, {snip} I wasn't close enough to my dreams and now that I was very close it just felt like a bullet in the back of the head (no panic though). Also, it was an unexpected move going off price history, and the thought that this could be a prolonged bear market after such a small move up is disheartening. I'm still hoping that this is a correction (mini bear market) in the longer bull supercycle as well, but I'm not seeing much bullish price action, though on-chain seems to be showing some good signs. Like others, I'm thinking towards the end of this year we should see something, but if we don't by then, well, that ain't a good sign.
Mostly similar to myself.
Also the major deviation from S2F is concerning.
Oh look, my 18000th post. What a sad bastard
Oh gosh.. I know that we are a supposed to be further than usual from the historical stock to flow deviation, and so don't you believe that some bears and FUD spreaders are going to want you to consider all of your BTC price models are broken... for sure.. for sure.. the need for greater extremes are necessary to cause peeps to lose confidence and to sell their coins...
Sell, sell, sell...
weeeeeeeeeeeee
(of course, I am engaging in a parody, and rubbing it in a weeeee bit)
Just consider how much excitement the beartwats and fud spreaders are going to feel if they were either able to start the bear season early (yeah 6 months or more early) or to delay the bull run by another 6 months, 9 months or even 12 months... wouldn't that be great for them? Don't they have a lot of incentives for trying to accomplish such? Are they going to be successful or not? what are the odds? We had seen them fail with a lot of egg on their face in previous times. What are the odds that they are going to fare better this time? Sure there is a chance, but our macro circumstances is not exactly playing in their favor? So we will see. We will see. Fuck those twats..... And if they are successful, do we still get a bull run a bit further down the road in this particular cycle (even if delayed a weeeee bit?), or do we have to wait 3-4 years before king daddy is able to go up? or does that break bitcoin completely? I am thinking that the beartwats are having to spend a lot of resources to keep king daddy in its current around 50% correction range.. and even with that current scenario, it is not even an absolutely and clearly bad spot for us... fuck stock to flow.. stock to flow can suck a bag of dicks.. and just adjust the curve a wee bit, and we are back in business with stock to flow 2.0... so who cares.. king daddy is going to win, even if we are all dead by the time we are richie as fuck... hahahaha... o..k.. I got carried away.. yes.. there could be a delay and stock to flow might have to get shifted on its curve, but what you gonna do with sound money versus not sound money, are there any actual competitors? Realistically?
Even if we consider the various beartwat wet dream scenarios, we should not be losing our faith in bitcoin, and we have already won.. seems to me.. but whatever, are they going to get us down to the 104-week moving average (which is about $20k currently) or down to the 208-week moving average which is about $13,600... currently... I have my doubts about getting down to either one of those.. but whatever, whatever.. roll with the punches, no? We are good, no?... You really believe that there is even any kind of reasonable and realistic expectation of getting an 85% correction out of this particular correction? That would put us around $10k.. and again just seems like a pie in the sky wet dream, but I am willing to HODL through such nonsense if it were to occur (and buy if I were to have much if any money left at that point.. there still some cashflow that I have)... anyhow, fuck those twats.. we are not in a bad place.. and gotta get below $25k first.. and sure.. been testing $30k several times, and it could end up breaking like $6k broke in late 2018.. but this is not late 2018... so having my doubts.. yeah it could happen.. but cross that bridge when we get there (that is if we get there). Did I say fuck those beartwat, FUDspreader, bitcoin naysayers, yet?
July 14, 2021, 11:47:29 AM
Currently 31 degrees outside, 26 degrees inside, just great, even the cats are too hot to do anything.
We have a word for that in my country
You have too much sparetime
July 14, 2021, 11:46:53 AM
My current amusing thought experiment puts liquidity at around 15 million total coins, with the amusing assumption that we will not see 21 million soon, but have mined 99% in a couple of decades, and a few of those millions lost, while the rest are in some form of cold storage.
We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.
In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.
Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.
I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.
My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.
This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.
I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.
We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.
In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.
Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.
I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.
My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.
This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.
I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.
Well to be honest your fun thought experiment is still quantifiable, within reach and comprehend-able at least … see what our “scientists” speculating, things worth $10,000 quadrillion
NASA’s Hubble Telescope has obtained images of an asteroid so rich in metals that its worth puts our global economy to shame. Think $10,000 quadrillion ($10,000,000,000,000,000,000), compared to the world’s economy, which was worth about $142 trillion in 2019.
Isn’t this more absurd than what Hal stated?
Mandatory Edit:
Don’t forget to divide this asteroid into 21 million pieces.
July 14, 2021, 11:42:58 AM
I just opened up an Electrum wallet which hasn't been used for several years, to find several identical and very small transactions. Suspecting a dust attack, but I've never paid much attention to the issue since I've never encountered it before. Should I be doing anything about this? Should I be worried?*
*ever noticed how so many MSM articles and interviews start with "should we be worried about...."
EDIT: just found fillippone's useful post here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/dust-attack-what-it-is-why-it-is-dangerous-and-how-to-prevent-falling-to-it-5175238 - thanks!
*ever noticed how so many MSM articles and interviews start with "should we be worried about...."
EDIT: just found fillippone's useful post here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/dust-attack-what-it-is-why-it-is-dangerous-and-how-to-prevent-falling-to-it-5175238 - thanks!
Just mark those UTXO as frozen or do not spend and be on your way...
July 14, 2021, 11:09:04 AM
I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.
Now imagine yourself a year ago, saying $32,383.11 sucks 
That is very true & when I was gobbling up cheap coins in 2014 & 2015 I would have gladly shook on $5,000 per coin. I’m a greedy bitch though, I have my heart set on obscene wealth
As bitcoiners we can’t forget some very key important things
It’s not a get rich fast thing though with buying bitcoin we are getting very fast rich/richer as we where before investing in bitcoin and it’s on a most honest, most honorable, financial independent manner as we ever could of think….
It’s not a get rich fast, but it’s fast as all the rest if we respect it’s path and just follow the DCA, but the dip, stacking sats etc but most of all not the mindrust way…
For sure, if you think about it (and yeah of course, if you believe the official story), a guy might spend a lot of time building and accumulating his BTC portfolio, and then reach some pretty decent goals in terms of BTC quantity.. but then get some kind of over invested and emotional and really stupid thinking about how far the BTC price is going to correct and consider the solution to sell and buy back later.. and holy shit that is some fucked up thinking and even if I say that it is difficult to believe, each of us can imagine scenarios in which we get over invested.. and even run out of money because we buy the dip but the BTC price seems to continue to dip... when at that point, the solution should be to HODL rather than SODL.. but for some reason some of us might start to feel that we can get ahead of this... and we emotionally delude our lil selfies into the wrong (but seeming right at the time) attempt to time the market and to "see where its going" and it does not go there.
https://twitter.com/WhalePanda/status/1415228140763459589/photo/1
Some whales buying the dip? I also bought for €600. I can do this longer than bears think
Some whales buying the dip? I also bought for €600. I can do this longer than bears think
Don't get too cocky or overly self-confident, ivomm - even though I have decent confidence too, that a lot of this whole situation is going to work out favorably for those of us who are either BTC accumulators or just largely HODLing through most of this... and of course, I still have standing BTC buy orders below $20k that for sure I would prefer NOT to even get close to using any of those buy orders at or near $25k.... so sure, take advantage of down... and surely I would prefer less down even though buy orders will continue to fill for quite a while... but I also hate the feeling of running out of money, too... if there are times that I keep buying and the BTC price even starts to get close to my lower buy orders, I really prefer NOT to be there or to go there, if possible.
@DanielJoe916
Third largest #BTC wallet just added 122 BTC ($3.9 million) during the recent dip. This wallet now holds 116,120 BTC worth $3.7B. This whale entity loves buying #BTC in the low 30s.
@venturefounder
https://twitter.com/danieljoe916/status/1415155606529339394?s=21
Third largest #BTC wallet just added 122 BTC ($3.9 million) during the recent dip. This wallet now holds 116,120 BTC worth $3.7B. This whale entity loves buying #BTC in the low 30s.
@venturefounder
https://twitter.com/danieljoe916/status/1415155606529339394?s=21
I surely have trouble attributing one entity (or individual) to those kinds of large wallets (instead of exchanges or something like that)..so I don't know how to figure out how to ascribe identity to such large wallets - i must have had more than 1,000 BTC addresses in my years of bitcoin experiences, and most of my BTC addresses do not have large quantities of BTC... but maybe some coins that I hold on exchanges are pooled with other coins... and I am not even saying that it is prudent to be dividing up 0.21 BTC in too many ways, either.
By the way, I am going to say that I have a problematic BTC address (or maybe a set of addresses) that concern me in terms of how it (they) was established and consolidated.. so still thinking about how to deal with some of my mistakes that were made.. and even hoping that there could be some ways to resolve some of my mistakes that were made.. but thinking and thinking.. without wanting to describe the particulars with too many details beyond just implying size and consolidation concerns.
Member back in the day when a few BTC was not a lot.. and maybe address sizes might have the "not a lot" quantities? and now there might be concerns about having address sizes that might contain more than 0.21BTC.. Member that?
July 14, 2021, 11:01:27 AM
July 14, 2021, 10:52:11 AM
My current amusing thought experiment puts liquidity at around 15 million total coins, with the amusing assumption that we will not see 21 million soon, but have mined 99% in a couple of decades, and a few of those millions lost, while the rest are in some form of cold storage.
We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.
In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.
Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.
I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.
My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.
This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.
I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.
We've seen coins aged 9 years move recently. However, I would bet that any coins much older than that, that have not moved, are never going to move, and for all intents and purposes may be considered lost.
In a few decades, we are looking at $50m to $100m per coin. USD.
Just an amusing thought experiment of my own.
I'd like to preface this with a little clarity that this does not represent all the wealth in the world, but rather all the value of currencies or money in the world in the future, essentially the equivalent of M1 to M3 or something like that, the liquid stuff. Maybe the value of entire companies and stocks and real estate too. Whatever it is that will be worth a thousand trillion dollars.
My naive dumb math puts $50m x 15m BTC = 750,000,000,000,000 or about 750 trillion.
This also means the stuff we can't really value like the oceans, the moon, the north and south poles, is not really counted, and who really cares about those except the scientists.
I say, it's a fun thought experiment. Maybe not fun for some of you guys because that would also imply something else is wrong with the world if this comes true.
July 14, 2021, 10:46:08 AM
I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.
Now imagine yourself a year ago, saying $32,383.11 sucks I voted August, sorry not sorry
My Vote is also August I am feeling we will go good.$11,000 by September.
Source: Straight outta my ass!
Lol
hahahaha
3x higher than LFC's one year ago "optimism"... who should be complaining about "ONLY" 3x higher than the optimistic prediction of BTC prices a year ago? First world problemas for sure, no?
I’m such a pessimist though, price action sucks atm.
Now imagine yourself a year ago, saying $32,383.11 sucks That is very true & when I was gobbling up cheap coins in 2014 & 2015 I would have gladly shook on $5,000 per coin. I’m a greedy bitch though, I have my heart set on obscene wealth
I think that is referred to as "filthy rich"
I am not going to begrudge you or judge you in that regard - even though I can still proclaim that you seem to be getting everything that you want.. even if it might feel as if it is NOT coming fast enough... (not all of us have the fortune of justin bieber to be banging hookers when in our prime youth of 16 or 17, so sure the parts do not work as well when in our 30s, 40s or 50s, but we can still hire someone to wipe our butts.. some consolation in that, no?)
July 14, 2021, 10:38:33 AM
Well he didn’t say it will happen but he stated it as “an amusing thought experiment”. On other hand if that happens and Bitcoin becomes the standard global currency in the world then measuring bitcoin against dollar will be as useless as it’s today… 1 BTC = 1 BTC
Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.
He does say that if Bitcoin were to become the dominant payment system of the world that the total value of the currency would equal the total value of ALL wealth in the world which is complete horse shit. To me he tries to cover up that quite inaccurate statement by prefacing that its just a thought experiment well even if that thought experiment did materialize and become a reality Bitcoin would not be the equivalent of all the wealth in the world. Anyway yes it might be insane but not when you take it as an amusing thought experiment.
As an amusing thought experiment, imagine that Bitcoin is successful and becomes the dominant payment system in use throughout the world. Then the total value of the currency should be equal to the total value of all the wealth in the world. Current estimates of total worldwide household wealth that I have found range from $100 trillion to $300 trillion. With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million.
July 14, 2021, 10:35:39 AM
Bitcoin bouced at exactly my triangle line setup.
It shows a very defined downward channel, tipping towards the first two weeks of august.
IIRC that's the month when the fun started in 2017?
It shows a very defined downward channel, tipping towards the first two weeks of august.
IIRC that's the month when the fun started in 2017?
So you are proclaiming "down before up"?
I know that peeps like to get caught up on various human events such as calendar months or seasons of the year, and I doubt that bitcoin gives any shits about those kinds of things, so in that regard, there are likely going to be more important factors to consider, for example whether shitcoin purgenings are happening or if they affect king daddy in one direction or another.. and sure, I am not opposed to ideas of triangles and considering if there has been enough consolidation in which a break out might seem more and more likely.. but I doubt that king daddy needs such triangles, to the extent that they can be reasonably drawn, to run their courses.
Just don't forget these words by Hal and you all will be good.
"With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
Hal was a smart guy, but he arrived at that number through faulty economic reasoning."With 20 million coins, that gives each coin a value of about $10 million."
.Of course it seems inevitable that if bitcoin remains relevant (which most of us here strongly believe), and the us dollar is still a thing, that purely due to inflation it will reach a 10 million usd/btc price. It just won't be dollars with the purchasing price of those in 2009 when Hal made the prediction.
I was going to suggest that you explain ur lil selfie a wee bit better Spaceman_Spiff, and if you are concluding that Hal was wrong merely based on his failure to account for inflation, and you are so much smarter because you believe that inflation is a BIG factor in terms of what causes BTC prices to inflate, then you seem to be caught up in some narrow considerations.
From what I understand of Hal's projection is that he was considering various ways that value is stored, and if BTC is more efficient and effective as a storage mechanism, then that value would gravitate into bitcoin. Sure, it could take several decades for such gravitation to play out, but I doubt that he was either missing inflation or failing to consider a variety of value storage mechanisms that could be replaced by BTC..,. and for sure, does not mean that he is correct or precise (or even any kind of god) to have had been engaging in such a seemingly back of the napkin kind of value storage calculation in order to approximate a kind of meaningful BTC price projection based on then dollar values.
Of course, if the dollar inflates away its own value, then BTC will end up having to be worth way more, but we could still attempt to measure in 2010-ish terms and still come to some kind of similar number (accounting for inflation).. so it seems a bit too pretentious to be attributing too much flaw to Hal's approximate calculation merely because dollar inflation (or it's projected exponential losses in value) has become way more apparent than it may have been at the time of Hal's back of the napkin calculations in 2010-ish.
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