Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 5416. (Read 26610404 times)

Good morning WO! I see that we are 20%+ the bottom, which is a good sign. I think that what we've seen in the last week is not a logical part of the market dynamics. On the contrary, this was a heavily manipulated well coordinated dump using high leverage shorts on bitmex, aided by some unfortunate FUD like Moron's tweets and the chinese winnie the poohs fake news. We know that each time Bitcoin is rising, the chinese communists are reiterating for a millionth time the ban narrative in a desparate but doomed attempt to save the communist yuan. They are so desparate that they are creating millions of fake facebook accounts to advertise the digital yuan. It is quite fun for me to report any add as misleading each time I see it (10+ times per day).

So now the big quiestion is what will happen next. How far the derivate manipulations will go (including CME, which are more subtle, but still present)? I don't want to make assumptions in that direction, since this is only a matter of manipulations, not the real thing. Sooner or later the fiat liquidity will punish the leveraged shorts attempts and wipe out all bitcoins of their owners to 0. Even in 2017 after the 70% dump from the ATH there was a 2x recovery from 6K to 12K. But then most people thought that 20K was not a legit price because it stayed only a couple of days after some weird pump from 10K to 20K. And around 12K a huge amount of weak hodler bitcoins flooded the exchanges which made the price to tank further.

Now the situation is much different. Everyone saw that the price stayed around 60K for months, so it is quite doable and sustainable. The average Joe is still dreaming for a whole coin, so any price lower thatn 30K will be short lived. Moreover, if we look at the log chart with the two 2x parallel lines, we see that the bottom price at the end of 2021 is $25600 and in 2022 - $51200, which can happen only in a severe bear market! This is a contradiction, because it will mean that somewhere in between we will return into the bull market. Since this dump is short lived and not fueled by the weaker hodlers like in 2018, I think that the chances of returning to the bull market in the next few months, even weeks are bigger than in 2022. And that will resemble 2013 double top market. If it happens in 2021 the top price would be around 150-200K+. If it happens in 2022, it would be 300-400K+.

Explanation

Hello guys. So unlike others I'm not a trader, although I can use a small part of my stash to buy low and sell high, but with BTC, high one day is low another day. If the stash is in fiat, it's still OK.

This month I decided I had too much fiat and wanted to put 30K€ (36500$) back in, 1000€ (1220$) a day. I started when prices were at 46-48000€ (58500$) so I expected to get about 0.66BTC, and now we're at 30000€ (36500$) so pretty bad timing, but 2 thirds of the way my average buying price is 35000€ so I'm pretty happy with that.

Do you think I should put the last third in ASAP and buy at the current 30K€ (36500$) price, or continue with the plan ?

I'm keeping some bags of cash anyway in case the price goes down to 20K€, 10K€, and if it goes below that, we'll see, I might go all in, or stop buying because something bad would have caused such price.

Losing half of ones net worth, while making 15K in income over a 2 and a half month period is hardly killing it. It is actually a disaster.

Now, something you will never understand is that you a piece of shit, everyone else can recongnise that, but you never will. So just accept your limitations and stop thinking you know better than everyone else, you don't.

Funny how you have been acting like such a whinny little bitch in recent days in spite of your supposedly being able to kill it with sophisticated financial instruments in recent times, too.

Also, it seems to me to be much better to be attempting to describe BTC portfolio strategies that are replicable, and I tend to do that on an ongoing and regular basis..

Of course, any guy should be attempting to start with basics and that is getting their financial shit together so that they are not whining like a little girl every time the BTC price moves.. because if guys get their financial shit together, then they should already be prepared both financially and psychologically for BTC price moves in any direction and even extreme moves. 

Seems to me that if a guy is not psychologically prepared for BTC price moves and he is whining like a little girl, (we already have decent ideas that they can and tend to be extreme from time to time), then there is likely something wrong with strategy in a financial way too.. so basics (finance 101 - which seem to be a challenge to you somac) would be to attempt as best as possible to align finances with psychology.

In response to your  other convoluted and potentially contradicting nonsense, there seems to be no real need for me to go into detail about what has been so fucking awesome about my own BTC system, even though I have largely been in BTC about 7.5 years now, so the first years were building foundations but already having a decent amount of capital that I could inject and allocate into bitcoin.

On the other hand, we know that if guys are starting investing from scratch, then they might have to exercise a considerable amount of patience to even build up their investment portfolio to 1 BTC.. not that I am even conceding to have 1 BTC since that is also considered to be a lot these days, so beginners likely are going to have lower targets before they might start feeling that they can go baller with any of their stash... which surely, I tend to be a person who wants to recommend means that are fairly conservative and straightforward rathe than the employment of complicated and convoluted investment mechanisms... which may well screw peeps out of whatever investment portfolio that they may have, as you seem to suggest to be a potential risk somac (besides your bragging about it).

Yes that 1 BTC has also, unfortunately gone down in value over those months, but we play 1 BTC = 1 BTC  here so not to worry.

Too good to be true? No. Sustainable? unlikely over the long-term with just 1 coin.

I have been selling OTM call options on that 1 coin, those calls have stupid high premiums, so making that money quickly is easy enough, the problem will come if it goes up in price substantially within the short time frame (hopefully it does and stays there), this is where it is possibly not sustainable, and all you can do to avoid is sell well OTM calls (less premium) or do you best to time your trades.

We'll see how it all goes in the end, but in my mind it beats selling, as if I were to do this I would lose all capital gains (also be taxed like a bitch) where as OTM calls mean I still get some capital gains at least.

I have done this trade in legacy markets prior, so experience helps. Understanding the greeks is paramount to maximising ones return, right now the volatlity has created some pretty high premiums so even now the gains can still be fantastic, that will drop off though as time goes on, but hopefully price goes back up at same time.

This shit ain't for everyone and I certainly don't recommend it without a full understanding of what you are getting into. HODL will always be the best strategy long-term for accumulation of capital. And there is no way you should even attempt it Jay, you lack the ability to understand the perspective yet alone the trade, so just do what works for you.

Happy Bitcoin Pizza Day Guys.

Explanation

Probably for more than half of the over 7 years of my participation on this forum, I have been suggesting that for fuck you status, there are probably a lot of guys who would need at least $1million in capital, so that would be presuming a $3,333 per month as passive income as a starting point for their cashflow.. of course, some guys might be able to get by for less or might need more, but it had seemed that $1million had been a good starting point.  

Sorry to say that in recent times, I have felt inclined to become more elitist and to double the starting out for fuck you status amount in the past year or two - and probably especially I felt more compelled to double the starting out amount after some of the shocking aspects of the early 2020 money printer go burr situation.. so that would mean $2million in capital which would be presumed to be able to sustain about $6,666 per month in passive income.

I still appreciate that there are going to be quite a few areas in the world that such a large income would be a bit of an overkill as a starting out fuck you status point - meaning that the starting point could be quite a bit lower than $6,666 per month.

In any event, you (somac) seem to be suggesting that you are getting about $6,000 per month  ($15k/2.5) in passive income by merely having 1 BTC as your capital used to earn that. which surely would have fluctuated in value between about $30k and $64,895k, but seems way too good to be true in terms of either being able to earn that much from so little and/or.. to be sustainable?  

Even considering BTC values at $60k, to be able to earn 100% the value of the BTC in 10 months, seems a wee bit too good to be true... Are you selling something or smoking something?

I'm just having a whinge, that is all.

Also, speaking of my "interest earning bullshits" that I did with 1 BTC, It has been going awesome. I pulled in, as income, USD15k on that 1 BTC so far (2.5 months). If only I had the balls to of used more BTC. Also None of that 1 BTC is gone, it still = 1 BTC.

And this is why I won't sell any BTC (home excluded, and even then maybe not). I can generate a sizeable income off a small percentage of my capital, yes not as much at these levels now, but when it does get to 100k, it will be even easier.

Hahahaha

Ok... Fair enough.

Why was I trying to read more bitter in you than actually exists?

Maybe because you have been expressing a lots of emotions in recent times?  Perhaps?  Perhaps?



Hahahaha

nice to see some emotionalism from you dude..  hahahaha

You are coming off as quite the skeptic in regards to the stories of some peeps, here.   


There you go with your imagination again, and might you not consider possible errors that might exist to extrapolate how online personas may well differ from real life ones?

Go on, keep imagining.


Are you giving some kind of advices regarding my participation being premature?  or are you trying to suggest that you know something important with which I am interfering?

For some reason, I am having troubles taking your vices seriously... but hey, did I ask for advices?  I cannot recall doing that.

It's funny that you don't see that what you are saying is the very definition of a nincompoop: a boorish and foolhardy person, not willing to put his/her prediction on the line, but lashing out and criticizing others who do.

I picture seeing @JJG in a classroom and berating fellow students who happen to know the answer to a given problem.

If you don't have a technical opinion, fine, then listen to others and comment AFTERWARDS, not BEFOREHAND.

I was a gear head not a believer in btc or any coin 🪙.

I used to build speakers for stereo systems.
Then apple’s mac mini came out in 2005 I modded them from 2005 to 2012
sold hundreds of them on ebay.
Apple started changing the gear and made it not moddable.
Also ebay buyers were getting slick they knew how to rob honest sellers.

So started with anandtech.com learned to mine with gpus at bitminter.

I spent years say 2012 to 2014 mining ⛏ and building gear for people. I never saw it for what it really is until I met my partner buy solar.

He lives less than Five minutes from my house 🏠.

We created a five year plan to do a mining farm with very little capital risk.

So now we are setup were we will also turn a profit.

four way spilt . Involves mining btc,eth,ltc/doge.

I Think of all other coins as a 9 to 5 job that allows me to grow the btc and some cash for expenses.

So now with doge/ltc and eth coming in on a regular basis they go towards the growth of my btc.

I will always buy the dip and hodl. I also have decided to hodl btc until it goes to 70k and only sell 10% at that level.

Explanation

Deep down on the inside.

all of us bbbbeeeeeeeeeeee bots.


bots unite!!!!!!!!!!



FTFY

 


If there was already momentum from a few days ago, then there is more than enough reason to attempt to test support again.. whether gets successfully low or not is likely a bit of another story.


Don't mischaracterize me, you diptwat.

You should realize by now that I hardly ever have an opinion beyond 50/50 - but I do frequently criticize others who are seeming to make claims that attribute way more certainty than they deserve, including your premature proclamation of resistance at $42k/$43k.



There was?  or was there just not enough buying support?  Same thing?


Ok.  I would like to blame Biodom for ongoingly making premature and strong proclamations that are likely NOT true... or at best are a wee bit more than 50/50.




Who?  You mean if I say that you are full of shit, and then the price ends up going in your direction, so you proclaim victory?  That's what you be talking about willis?



 


You are reading a lot into this buddy.
 

Maybe you should start trading, since you seem to be such a smartie pants?  put some money where ur lil mousie is.  That might help some of your analysis or lack thereof.


Goes to show you that scary can be relative.

I concede, in part.   

Explanation

That's a bit scary.

Accept your point about a lot of possibilities, especially we are considering the relatively near term future, whether attempting to project out 3 days or 9 months into the near term future.. hahahaha


Well.. yes many of us are HODLers and accumulators.. don't forget the accumulation part unless you ran out of cash.. then you might well have to HODL until the next cash comes to you.


I doubt that it matters too much to get caught up in some of the green or not aspects of mining nonsense... seems to largely just be playing into mostly wrong talking points in regards to what is going on in bitcoin and peeps who have various seemingly disingenuine motives to be naysaying on bitcoin mining or whatever negative hook that they might be able to achieve.. at least in the short term.

Bitcoin miners are going to go where it works for them for a variety of reasons, and when the BTC price is booming they probably give too few shits about how much energy they are consuming.. but if they are seeing the landscape of competitive mining and the UPs and downs of profit margins, many times they are going to be advantaged to seek the cheapest energy that they can find, perhaps frequently even closer to the source which may even be using some surplus energy that might not have otherwise been used (which also causes such energy to be cheaper), but surely miners have to be careful too because there would be costs or potential costs if operating in locations that are hostile - so it might not be worth it to miners (even if the energy is cheap) to locate in areas that might be hostile to them.


Of course, anything is possible you diptwat, but does not mean that we should get obsessed with such nonsense especially after we already had a 53% correction in which further correction may or may not happen.

Sure, prepare for either scenario, but getting overly focused on DOWNity seems a bit more of a fantasy rather than realistically pee paring ur lil selfie for all possibilities.

If you are supposedly so goddamned pee pared for UPpity, why you spend so much time, on an ongoing basis, giving attention to DOWNity scenarios that may or may not happen?  Are you expecting that others need to do something to give credit of more than 50/50 to such a scenario that might even be less than 50/50 even though you want to stress it?



Hm?  So we could go to $25k.., but then again we might not.. but if we do go to $25k, which seems unlikely, we better get ready to prepare our lil selfies to get MOAR scared, just in case.  That's the Biodom punchline at this time?    

Sounds like overly focused on DOWNity nonsense to me.    


Ok... We are supposed to be scared of that?

Sure, it no does not look like an ant move, but still.. not getting scary enough yet.  We needs MOAR scary.. Please bring some more scary because the scary so far no does not seem to be working enuff.

2021


2017

I doubt king daddy gives any shits, even if you might be trying to make some kind of connection in regards to what should be considered as largely noises.


Seems like a BIG so fucking what, even if you are trying to be somewhat dramatic about it.

We need lots of drama and scary shit to be able to attempt to shake some of the weak hands that do not know that they are weak hands, yet.  So, sure is there going to be anymore shaking or success at shaking, time will tell. 

The best time to attempt to attack some more by either throwing more coins at the issue and/or throwing more FUD at the issue while the chips are down... so a question still remains if any more success can be achieved in further attempts for DOWNity or no...   

Weekends can be a good/opportune time for throwing more coins at this issue.,. but do dee bears gots any more coins left that they are ready, willing and able to throw at their DOWNity preferences?  and what are dee odds for success?

Popcorns anyone?


There are a few other differences too, but hey, Biodom, if you are 'specting more DOWNity or even flat from here that drags out 2-6 months, you might be overplaying your lack of bullishness a wee bit.  But who am I to say?  You surely have your right to either wait for more DOWNity or fail refuse to adequately pee pare ur lil selfie for UPpity because you are expecting either flat or down.. Hopefully not to many udder peeps rely on your projections for adequately making their own UPpity preparations.