see
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.57059967People proclaimed that the guy is midrust-lite, but examining his lines makes some sense (as a possibility).
A quick 2021 vs 2013 comparison...
2013: up from ~16 to $250 (1300%), down from 250 to 65 (-71%)
2020-2021: up from ~10K (where bull started going vertical) to ~65K(450%), back down currently to 30K at the current low (-53.8%).
At 25K (hypothetical) it would be -61.5% (close to a Fib number) and at 13K (close or at 200wk average) it would be -80%.
This shows to me that 25K is possible as this downturn low, but even this one seems excessive since we did not peak as dramatically as in 2013, therefore it is more likely than not that we either already bottomed at 30K (almost -54%) or would bottom somewhere between 25 and 30K.
Pure tech analysis guys would probably love for it to go to -61.8%, which would be just a tad below 25K (something like 24.7K if the top was actually 64.65 and not exactly 65).
TLDR; We already had enough decline compared with 2013, but could go to about 25K in the oversold scenario. Anything lower would be a problem.
Numbers looks not so correct. We started around 13$ december 2012 and the peak was 260$ so X20 in april 2013 (let's say around +2000%).
I am agree with you for the 10K$. Even if we were already at 20K$ during december 2020, we started to go (really) UP from the 10K$. So assuming we made approximately x6 till the (local) top.
In this situation, got a dip more than 50% looks already really high and really oversold. More in prorata to go from 13 to 260 and go back to 65.
This scenario and proportion would be more correct if we had top to the 100K$ / 100K€ so let's say 100-120K$. But definitely not à 64/65K$...